6F Strategy

[MTTY]

I have come up with a strategy, of which at this point i will be using for 2013.

6FP (6 Round form players) will be defined as players who have one of the better/easier starting 6 rounds and thus could mean that they earn extra cash fast.

UVPre (Under Valued Premium) - This is a player who i think will be in the top 6-10 for each position but is cheaper than some of the others i think will be in the top 10 for each position

So i will be starting will the following structure:

Backs: Pre, UVPre, UVPre, 6FP, 6FP, Rookie (Rookie, Rookie)

Mids: Pre, UVPre, 6FP, 6FP, Rookie, Rookie, Rookie, Rookie (Rookie, Rookie)

Rucks: Prem, Leuenberger (Rookie, Rookie)

Forwards: Pre, UVPre, UVPre, 6FP, 6FP, Rookie (Rookie, Rookie)


Current Team using

DEF: B. Gibbs, D. Heppell, P. Duffield, H. Hartlett, C. Pedersen, L. Brown (J. Pittard, B. Goodes)
MID: S. Pendlebury, M. Murphy, D. Mundy, T. Greene, N. Vlastuin, K. Mitchell, J. Cowan, B. Crouch (J. O'Meara, J. Viney)
RUC: A. Sandilands, M. Leuenberger (M. Gawn, S. Rowe)
FWD: D. Cox, D. Zorko, T. Rockliff, A. Goodes, C. Sylvia, B. Macaffer (B. Staker, T. Lee)
CASH LEFT: $344,600


To determine a 6FP, i used the following attached speadsheet (If Spreadsheet not opening then refer to picture). This basically allocates points based on ladder position (In groups of 2) with lower ladder position resulting in greater points (GC and GWS = 9 points) and higher ladder position meaning smaller points (Hawks and Swans = 1 point) with the first six rounds points tallied and then added together with a rank then determined. I have used my 6FP's as those teams within the rank of top 6.

Following on from this i aim to use this strategy to do the following using the allocated trades for the first 6 rounds:

Round 1 (completion): Rookie & Rookie - High scoring rookie & High scoring rookie

Round 2 (completion): Rookie & Rookie - High scoring rookie & High scoring rookie

(If any LTI's occur between this point and round 6, then i will hold off on a trade for the following week)

*Price Changes occur* (Meaning that hopefully my 6FP have found form and increased in price, while players that i want to bring in e.g. Swan and Ablett have dropped)

Round 3 (completion): Def 6FP & Fwd 6FP - Def Prem (Predicted Top 10 scorer) & Def Prem (Predicted Top 10 scorer)

Round 4 (completion): Def 6FP & Fwd 6FP - Def Prem (Predicted Top 10 scorer) & Def Prem (Predicted Top 10 scorer)

Round 5 (completion): Mid 6FP & Mid 6FP - Mid Prem (Predicted Top 10 scorer) & Mid Prem (Predicted Top 10 scorer)


So that is the strategy i am running with at the moment. Hopefully this will generate the required cash to be able to upgrade quicker than others.




"https://skydrive.live.com/embed?cid=6BD7E337010E521A&resid=6BD7E337010E521A%21153&authkey=AOY3jZcXu6j2jS8&em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&wdHideGridlines=True&wdHideHeaders=True&wdDownloadButton=True"

[Driride]

Has a lot of merit , but starting with out some of the guns looks wrong , on saying that I will take it onboard for sure

[MTTY]

Has a lot of merit , but starting with out some of the guns looks wrong , on saying that I will take it onboard for sure

Cheers mate, trying to limit it to 1 of the better premiums per position to start and then bring in the others ASAP, with this strategy. As you can see at the moment have Gibbs, Pendblebury, Sandilands and Cox but could change that up to Goddard, Ablett/Swan, Sanilands and say Franklin if need be, due to the cash i have left.  :)

[Mr.Craig]

Round 1 (completion): Rookie & Rookie - High scoring rookie & High scoring rookie

Round 2 (completion): Rookie & Rookie - High scoring rookie & High scoring rookie

One thing... at the end of Round 2 most of us fine tune our rookies so that makes sense but I would be worried about any strategy that involves trading rookies in Round 1 based on a single score. Someone like Viney could score a 50 first up but I wouldn't be moving him on, even in the face of a ton by someone I don't have. That might seem like a conservative approach but I don't want to go throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

[MTTY]

Round 1 (completion): Rookie & Rookie - High scoring rookie & High scoring rookie

Round 2 (completion): Rookie & Rookie - High scoring rookie & High scoring rookie

One thing... at the end of Round 2 most of us fine tune our rookies so that makes sense but I would be worried about any strategy that involves trading rookies in Round 1 based on a single score. Someone like Viney could score a 50 first up but I wouldn't be moving him on, even in the face of a ton by someone I don't have. That might seem like a conservative approach but I don't want to go throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Very understandable Mr.Craig, i reckon if i do go ahead with this strategy then a rookie would have to score pretty well for me to consider trading another one out straight away, so may just end up with my rookies being fine without trading.  :)

[Scrads]

Yeah IIRC Adam Kennedy last year blasted out a 120 on round 1 followed by a solid 70 or 80 in round 2 and because I didn't start him, I jumped on straight away (at the expense of idk who) only to out up with 40-60 scores for the rest of the year from him :/

The other thing to note is I am not sure your trades after round 3 are worth it. Those players you predicted start well would either a) not have had much growth (like 10k-20k) or if they have risen by like 40k then chances are there is plenty of growth left in them you could exploit. I would shift those trades a round later (so you upgrade rhem after rounds 4, 5, 6 and start with the ones who are scoring the least because they will have the lesser points and lesser growth in the next 2 rounds. Also be wary of injuries in those early rounds sd they may mess things around.

[mezzoculo]

Round 1 (completion): Rookie & Rookie - High scoring rookie & High scoring rookie

Round 2 (completion): Rookie & Rookie - High scoring rookie & High scoring rookie

One thing... at the end of Round 2 most of us fine tune our rookies so that makes sense but I would be worried about any strategy that involves trading rookies in Round 1 based on a single score. Someone like Viney could score a 50 first up but I wouldn't be moving him on, even in the face of a ton by someone I don't have. That might seem like a conservative approach but I don't want to go throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

I think that (many) coaches will offload vested rookies (red or green) at the end of Round 1. Not saying that's a good strategy but it will happen.

[Ziplock]

mmmm, maybe. It makes sense I guess- if the rest of your team is firing, then you might as well offload vested rooks for quick cash generation....

[mezzoculo]

mmmm, maybe. It makes sense I guess- if the rest of your team is firing, then you might as well offload vested rooks for quick cash generation....

It'll be most common with 'casual' coaches. The same folks who in previous years traded in KPP bubble boys like Patton just because they new his name.

[Ziplock]

it will be, but you'll also see a few pros do it- it makes sense- with the extra trades, the game becomes about who can finish their team first... if you have a rookie subbed in round 1/2, then trading them out for a rookie on the bubble is going to be helpful as you'll rake in the cash early on.

I *probably* wouldnt do it for a rookie subbed round 1... but for one subbed round 2, I would seriously consider it. If they were subbed both rounds, I'd almost definitely do it.

[SydneyRox]

Agreed, the early cash generation is something we havent had to worry about in previous years as, most people waited for cows to fatten and held trades for as long as possible. However with the use them or lose them trades, we can add value to our team (hopefully without compromising the points scored) by stock trading players based on the BE

My only questions would be about making too many calls on rookies based on round 1 scores. However, having an extra premium or midpricer in round 1 who should score well vs the specific team makes sense to me

[RookieDTer]

So, using this.... can see Sydney have a dream start..... but, are any Sydney players worth it? K. Jack I'd consider, but I'd have to arrange my team a fair bit.

Saints play GC, Rich, GWS, yet, I don't want any Saints in my team (except probably Lee).

Whilst it is nice to sort of have this in the back of your mind, I don't think I can really make decisions based on it, unfortunately - maybe, at the margins, a little bit?

Suppose I could do - Dangerfield +K.Jack for R1 & R2 (Crows play Essendon, then Brisbane with that tagger), then the Crows play Port then Bulldogs, so trade back to Dangerfield. Problem with that is at the end of R2, probably want to trade rookies around.... so dont want to "waste" a trade on a sideways between K.Jack and Dangerfield.

[Phasir]

I agree it does have merit, however you could argue that going through every players' average v opponent stats and picking players that beast it out over their first 3-4 opponents should be chosen over guys that are in a team that's playing spuds, so someone like Hodge from the Hawks who have a shocking start to the season might average 115 against his first 3 opponents while K.Jack etc from Sydney who have an easy start might only average 90.

(for the record I have no idea what Hodge or K.Jack average, was just using them as examples.)