What If?

Mr.Craig · January 20, 2013, 05:05:10 PM

With most of us shying away from picking premium priced rookies, what will you do if a Whitfield/Stringer/Vlastuin guns it in the first two rounds?

To catch one of them you might need 30k-80k in the bank and if you want two it might require 120k+. Downgrading a mid-pricer is a possibility but it feels rather defeatist. Alternatively you could stick to the players you've selected and just hope for the best.

Each strategy has pros and cons. Thoughts?

kilbluff1985 · January 20, 2013, 05:16:25 PM

i think a good strategy is starting an extra mid then planned like a Sydney player who plays GC+GWS then after the 2 rounds get the best rookie in for your least performing premo mid

just something i been thinking about

GM · January 20, 2013, 05:16:52 PM

Good question mate.To have a little cash is my preferred option
Can i also ask, if your side guns it in week 1 with no injuries and all rooks you have scored well,do you pass on your 2 trades?

Football Factory · January 20, 2013, 05:17:50 PM

Quote from: Mr.Craig on January 20, 2013, 05:05:10 PM
With most of us shying away from picking premium priced rookies, what will you do if a Whitfield/Stringer/Vlastuin guns it in the first two rounds?

To catch one of them you might need 30k-80k in the bank and if you want two it might require 120k+. Downgrading a mid-pricer is a possibility but it feels rather defeatist. Alternatively you could stick to the players you've selected and just hope for the best.

Each strategy has pros and cons. Thoughts?

Hard to say .. it's always handy to keep 30-40k in the bank for things like that. Like you say there's always the option of downgrading a failed midpricer. We might change our minds on these sorts of guys depending on Nab performances i guess

Football Factory · January 20, 2013, 05:19:22 PM

Quote from: greenmoon on January 20, 2013, 05:16:52 PM
Good question mate.To have a little cash is my preferred option
Can i also ask, if your side guns it in week 1 with no injuries and all rooks you have scored well,do you pass on your 2 trades?

Yes .. i would

mezzoculo · January 20, 2013, 05:33:00 PM

That's why I am considering starting either Toumpas or Wines. Otherwise, I'll hold back my judgement with the rookies I select for Round 1.

Mr.Craig · January 20, 2013, 05:42:53 PM

What about this though...

Let's say you have 240k in the bank and still need to pick a forward. Would you be better off picking a rookie and having 130k in the bank or putting it all on the field in the form of Varcoe/Byrnes? You kind of have the best of best of both worlds in that situation - the potential for the mid-pricer to have a good first two rounds or alternatively downgrade to the rookie.

You could argue that it's no different to upgrading the rookie to the midpricer in Round 3 but surely you'd back in the experienced AFL player to score more than a first/second game rookie. :-\

Football Factory · January 20, 2013, 05:45:59 PM

Quote from: Mr.Craig on January 20, 2013, 05:42:53 PM
What about this though...

Let's say you have 240k in the bank and still need to pick a forward. Would you be better off picking a rookie and having 130k in the bank or putting it all on the field in the form of Varcoe/Byrnes? You kind of have the best of best of both worlds in that situation - the potential for the mid-pricer to have a good first two rounds or alternatively downgrade to the rookie.

You could argue that it's no different to upgrading the rookie to the midpricer in Round 3 but surely you'd back in the experienced AFL player to score more than a first/second game rookie. :-\

Thats the way im going.. less chance of the dreaded vest aswell

owenbond007 · January 20, 2013, 07:42:36 PM

I'm not looking to start any mid-pricers (other than luey) atm. If a high priced rookie was to kill it massively id consider down a premo that is failing to perform (if i had one) or my worst premo down to a embly/varcoe like player so i could then up my worst rookie or a rookie that can't get a gig/struggling to the high priced rookie.

mezzoculo · January 20, 2013, 11:09:11 PM

Quote from: Mr.Craig on January 20, 2013, 05:42:53 PM
What about this though...

Let's say you have 240k in the bank and still need to pick a forward. Would you be better off picking a rookie and having 130k in the bank or putting it all on the field in the form of Varcoe/Byrnes? You kind of have the best of best of both worlds in that situation - the potential for the mid-pricer to have a good first two rounds or alternatively downgrade to the rookie.

You could argue that it's no different to upgrading the rookie to the midpricer in Round 3 but surely you'd back in the experienced AFL player to score more than a first/second game rookie. :-\

Varcoe by the straight. The problem with this example is that there are bugger all stand out forward rookies.

Holz · January 21, 2013, 11:14:10 PM

I try to hold as little cash as possible. Im thining if a must have does pop up I will just downgrade a premo with the biggest BE to a guy who pops up.

E.g Swan to Redden etc...

than again im thinking unless a 100k rookie fails not to go the expensive rookies as im trying to make cash as fast as possible.

T Dog · January 22, 2013, 01:07:52 PM

Quote from: Holzman on January 21, 2013, 11:14:10 PM
I try to hold as little cash as possible. Im thining if a must have does pop up I will just downgrade a premo with the biggest BE to a guy who pops up.

No spare cash for me either this year. All on the field and adapt as things pan out. BE monitoring all year by the looks.

PowerBug · January 23, 2013, 01:25:38 PM

Why not start with a couple of First round Rookies? Then if they don't gun it, you can downgrade to the cheaper rookie?

SydneyRox · January 25, 2013, 02:26:59 AM

Quote from: SilkySkills on January 23, 2013, 01:25:38 PM
Why not start with a couple of First round Rookies? Then if they don't gun it, you can downgrade to the cheaper rookie?

+1 Perfect idea. Start with the highest price rookies you want, if they are toast, downgrade away.

Presto · February 02, 2013, 02:58:07 AM

Quote from: Mr.Craig on January 20, 2013, 05:05:10 PM
With most of us shying away from picking premium priced rookies, what will you do if a Whitfield/Stringer/Vlastuin guns it in the first two rounds?

To catch one of them you might need 30k-80k in the bank and if you want two it might require 120k+. Downgrading a mid-pricer is a possibility but it feels rather defeatist. Alternatively you could stick to the players you've selected and just hope for the best.

Each strategy has pros and cons. Thoughts?

There is a forth alternative: Start with one or two of them. (I am starting with Stringer and Wines, provided they are named in round 1)
I agree with you that downgrading a midpricer is defeatist, midpricers are there to become keepers or as a step up to a premium. Keeping to your original team is not the idea of the game (44 trades assume that you will improve your team every round, especially earlier on.) Starting with Stringer or Wines is identical to start with a cheap rookie and some money in the bank, but will save you a trade if either guns it.