Think you can win it from here?

Started by Grannyboy, June 26, 2012, 01:08:50 PM

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Justin Bieber

Quote from: Gurans on July 06, 2012, 10:16:56 AM
Quote from: bigballs on July 05, 2012, 08:46:46 PM
the reason why you have so many boos is because your points are stupid. Most people probably stopped reading after your first or second point.

1. You have no chance of winning if you are coming 205th. It means you have to go past over 200 people in 10 rounds. You may have a chance of having an overall higher score than the leader at the end of the competition but even still, I highly doubt that.

2. This point is also ridiculous. The winner will need a lot of luck and will probably be a team that is already set that has less than 7 trades left. It will be the team inside the top 10 or 20 that has the least amount of injuries.

There is no point reading on or arguing with any of your other points because the 1st 2 are wrong.
this guy.... has big balls

hahaha

Football Factory

Quote from: Grannyboy on July 02, 2012, 03:07:54 AM
Apparently I've offended people by posting research on numbers in this game. I apologise sincerely and take it from all the boos you never want to hear from me again? FAT FLOWERING CHANCE THAT WILL EVER HAPPEN! Boo me more people, let's see if we can click that button 1,000,000 times and REALLY put me in my place! That'll show me! Don't bother to post or debate these things or possibly even enter input and help me and everyone else who reads this and bothers to post. Just click that button boo. That's the spirit.
If you are unfamiliar with sarcasm then you are one of the most intelligent, good looking and useful people to read this post!

(Disregard this whole post if it's actually whatlez doing it because I kicked him out of my league...if that's the case then I just fomcrotflmfao)
Quote from: whatlez on July 05, 2012, 12:36:01 PM
I'm still curious why I got mention?!?
You dont remember being in the FF FORUM LEAGUE ? and being removed before the season started  :-X

Which is why he is saying if its Whatlez booing me then disregard the last post

Football Factory

Quote from: Chopps on July 05, 2012, 07:56:32 AM
That was a good post till the one that followed, on topic however whilst your maths is well thought out, i think it's to stretched. Example for dt. I am 112th I would have what you call a completed side having said that I am fielding zorko /Martin froward. Martin is a little off the right average for a forward premo and Zorko could hit the dreaded wall. Having said that the other 6 are top 7 or 8 forwards.

My mids can't get much better I have swan, Albett, selwood, Boyd,rocky Watson , with the exception of rocky by .7 of a point they all average 105+ and the better four 115+

I have Maric and cox in rucks

Down back isn't as pretty but still solid. It be nice to have Scotland and/ or carrots but it's still solid

Now having said all that I am 707 points. Behind lets assume I have trades to burn I won't catch him/her .
Not only do I have to make up the 707 I have to close te 50.5 avg they have on me to put them that far in front. So my maths is I have to make 129.1 points to draw with them if they stay static which they won't.

707 lead divide by 9 rounds remaining is 78.6 (rounded to 1 decimal) plus 50.5 average that got him there

If I had trades and unlimited money sure I could bring in an extra forward. I could change rocky and selwood up for probably 10 points each and chop lake, shaw for Scotland and carrots . That still wouldn't give me my points, Who could guess the right players to. Break out 2nd half ?

All in all interesting discussion but I think you need to be more like  top 20 or 30 or really lucky
I also thought this was an interesting thread if you were ranked highly and wanted some sort of idea if you had a chance winning or not

Chopps

cheers FF. i liked granny boys original idea just was missing a few critical points. got to remember your not trying to catch the current leader either. which makes it impossible as surely top teams wont have crap teams to catch

Memphistopheles

I gained 176 points on the leader this week :D

But, even still I think at rank 470 and 1,108 points behind I'm not going to win it.

Hoping for a top 500 finish though, top 250 would be fantastic.

bigballs

Quote from: Memphistopheles on July 10, 2012, 05:12:22 PM
I gained 176 points on the leader this week :D

But, even still I think at rank 470 and 1,108 points behind I'm not going to win it.

Hoping for a top 500 finish though, top 250 would be fantastic.

Well done from last week, but to catch the leader you have to do that every week. If you have the same amount of points or less points than the leader in one week, it means that you have to beat the leader by even more points the next week. Plus you don't just have to catch the leader, you also have to catch the other 400 people in front of you. Good luck to you on getting inside the top 250, that's definitely realistic.

Grannyboy

#21
1. The first part of the post read: "I did research on SC...point scoring and pricing should be scaled down 10-15%" therefore 205th place in sc becomes 175th-180th in dt.
2. I have written a logarithm to compare the chances of a team 180th or so and myself from 1050th and the leader from round 13 onwards using factors I mentioned and it's tracking rather well only 4 rounds in. My artificial team from 180th (based on teams around this ranking from round 13) is now 43rd and the % gap is currently tracking very close to positive by seasons end. It will be interesting to see where it 'finishes'.
3. The leader refers to the leader at the end of the round, not the individual team that was leading in round 13.
4. If you would present any data based on any observations you have made I might take you seriously. You sound a lot like caroline wilson, a lot of opinions and noise but not a shred of statistical evidence to support your waffle.

Grannyboy

Um, you have a picture of Emilio Estavez on your profile. Nuff said...