What is the $ value of a trade

[ScottieD]

This query is often thrown around when discussing potential trade moves.  I thought it would be a good idea to estimate the $ value of each trade to use loosely as a guide to help with decision making.  Of course, next year may be different again and we're not too fussed as to the worth of each trade, moneywise, at this end of the season, but it might help us to look back and better judge some trades made this season and make more informed decisions in the future.

Assumptions:
- Initial squad is pure guns n rookies, with 15 guns picked at an average pricetag of $550k and 15 rookies picked at an average pricetag of $110k ~ $10mil.
- 15 guns, on average, hold their value (8.25mil).
- 15 rookies, on average, profit $140k (1.65mil - 3.75mil = 2.1mil profit).
- End of season team is worth $13.5mil (3.5mil profit).

Under these assumptions the original team would increase in value by 2.1mil without trades, leaving 1.4mil to be gained by way of trading.  Put simply each trade is worth, on average, 58k.

This is the base $ value of each trade, importantly however, this is not the figure to base your trade decisions on.  We need to use a number of sideways trades for mistakes early, long term injuries throughout and short term injuries/suspensions/omissions/luxury trades towards the finals.  Although these are classified as sideways trades, you have the data at this stage to choose players who come at a discount / have low BEs and hence you should make a marginal profit per sideways trade.

Assumptions:
- 2 mistake trades prior to round 3;
- 4 LTI trades (6+ weeks);
- 5 STI, omission/resting, suspension, luxury trades;
- 7 upgrade trades (with 15 starting guns this completes our team to 22 premiums);
- $20k profit made per sideways/upgrade trade (includes estimate of average loss made by injured / poor performing players which you choose to trade out).

This leaves us with 6 trades which are strictly downgrades designed to increase the overall worth of our teams.
From the above assumptions, these trades make us approx 1.4mil in profit minus the profit made from informed sideways/upgrade trades (20k x 18 = $360k) = $1.04mil.

Therefore the $ value of a downgrade trade ~ $173,333 (1.04mil / 6).  With this I am suggesting that when looking to downgrade someone for cash, you should be looking to make approx $175,000 out of the trade which includes the profit made instantly in the downgrade and the profit made out of new player traded in.