The Bargin Ruck Theory

[nick1408]

Thanks Dylan, this is exactly what I am aiming to do.  If I can get Cox in by round 12 I would be ecstatic.  Round 15-16 seem a bit more probable.  Also, I am planning on upgrading the 2nd ruck and a forward as well

[thefly1976]

i tried the ultimate gamble....
rucks of hille, spencer... pyke and browne

with looking at upgrading to a cox come round 5 or 6 if one of my midfield cash cows comes through

[pgillw]

Upgrade in rounds 5 or 6?  You dumb barbies.  This is why the 'sh*t ruck theory is junk:

Cash cows are generally rookies and very low cost players that average 50 - 70 (and more if you're lucky, but you'll hold onto such players much longer, i.e. palmer) and increase from their starting price of 86K and eventually get sold for between 200K and 300K.  You then sell that player for an up-can-coming rookie, say 86K and make over 100 - 200K on the trade.

Playing Spencer or Browne, being young ruckmen, mean they are more likely to average 30 - 50.  Still good as cash downgrades, but not spectacular.  So when they reach their zenith - probably around 200K as young enderdeveloped ruckmen (maybe 250K),  you still need 200K to get Cox.  So, not only are you banking on Cox dropping to make him more affordable, you're banking on Spencer / Browne / Jacobs rising to 200 - 250 points and having a valuable mid or defending cash cow used up to get Cox. 

The theory is not, "I'm banking on Cox not getting 106 average".  It is, "I'm banking on my replacement ruckman getting regular early games, averaging enough I can downtrade him, having a spare cash cow to sacrifice for an expensive ruckman and not having injuries interrupt my planned trading scheme".

Idiotic.

Furthermore, unless you've left cash in the bank, no one's score will have gone up enough to allow you to trade in rounds 5 or 6.  Unless you're Dalziell, you need a good solid 6 - 8 weeks to hit your maximum.  Young ruckman don't do that.

Finally, there is no choice in your rucks and you've both talked about trading Cox in.  Stupid, trades are worth more than cash, so you've already wasted 2 (i.e. one down one up).  Furthermore, you're banking on one player going down, against all proven history.  A better theory would be, there are 20 elite midfielders, I'm going to pick up one of those 20 when they have a decline.

Those who agree with this theory are thick individuals with no sense for the game they plau or worse, are too stubborn to admit what they know.  THAT THEY ARE WRONG!!!

[SpeedMeades]

In hindsight, If you had Hmac and Kreuzer, you'd be feeling pretty good right now. But not sure these qualify as bargain picks.

[Spydko]

As I've stated to you previously If you did go mid range It may have been a lot more affective but at least your giving it a go I guess.

Hopefully things fall your way because your certainly up against it. You'll be lucky to make the finals in your league let alone the Hilux! :p

[aggots]

As posted on another forum by me:

This season I have decided to not waste money on a ruck because lets face it, unless you have the $450,000+ to spend on the top ones they struggle to get 70 points. This season I have used this money to help my backs and midfielders out. So far my team looks like this:

B: J.Bowden, C.Cornes, N.Malceski, L.Hodge, A.Raines, J.W.Smith, R.Pettard
Subs: S.Hill, J.Grimes

M: J.Bartel, G.Ablett, J.Corey (c), D.Swan, B.Cousins, T.Boak
Subs: D.Rich, T.Swift

R: B.Renouf, T.West
Subs: M.Pyke, A.Graham

F: M.Pavlich, B.Harvey (vc), S.Lucas, S.Higgins, T.Hentnchel, C.Yarran, S.Sidebottom
Subs: S.Gumbleton, H.Ballentyne

As you can see I have gone for the forwards who are coming back from injury, as well as some highly rated rookies. I see forwards as generally good scorers and if the likes of Hentnchel and say Lucas or Higgins can start well then there may be an early trade to get a better forward in. the second ruck spot behind Renouf is a bit of a worry and will go to whoever actually plays (well, this is the theory for all the rucks. I need to wait untill round one teams come out before the final decision is made.) The team above was given a potential score from FanFooty of 1740. Lets discuss this.

With this theory, you can pretty much gaurantee 100+ points from Pavlich, Harvey, Bartel, Ablett, Corey, Swan, Cornes, Bowden and Hodge with your 60-70 points coming from Lucas, Higgins, Boak, Cousins and Malceski. So far this equates to 1200-1250, not including the captain bonus. that leaves 8 players to score the last 800 to crack the magical 2000 points. Now, we know this won't happen but neither will Ablett getting 100 flat each week. some weeks he will get 120 (likely) others may only be 90 (not likely).

I will now post the maths of the players who played games last year to give a bit more of an indication why i have sacrificed the rucks.

Player (2008 DT Ave.):
Swan (102.5) 22 Games
Lucas (50.2) 9 Games
Pavlich (99.3) 19 Games
Hodge (96.3) 17 Games
Pettard (45.5) 2 Games
Higgins (47.7) 4 Games
Ablett (111.7) 18 Games
Bartel (113.2) 22 Games
Corey (109.3) 22 Games
Grimes (42) 1 Game
Harvey (94.6) 22 Games
Smith (55.5) 2 Games
Cornes (85.5) 13 Games
Bowden (98.3) 18 Games
Raines (53) 2 Games
Malceski (57.3) 9 Games
Boak (83.1) 17 Games

This gives us a score of 1345 from 17 players. Not good but lets take out players who played less than 12 games. this now gives us a score of 994 from 10 players. Looking much better now. Now lets take into consideration the rucks:

West (33.3) 6 Games
Renouf (47) 5 Games

Both offer nothing but can give you 70 vital points and a now total score of 1064 from 12 players. This is a potential combined cost of $356,400 for 70 points isn't too bad but not too good either. Let's remember we are effectively playing with only 21 good players here but the upside is we have potentially saveed $400,000-$500,000 to spend elsewhere.

If we were to consider the injured players and say they will play 30% better without injury the scores will now equate to 1451 from 16 players. Definately respectable and competitive. 30% is a bit consertive but for the sake of this post it will be acceptable.

Of course there are some players like Hentchel, Gumbleton and Cousins that we are not sure about. If we were to say Cousins was to average 80 and Hentchel 60 then this gives us 1591 from 19 players. Add in the 70 form the rucks and it is 1660 from 20 players. Now, this doesn't look really good but you must realise that this system does rely on injury players and doesn't take into account players who will raise or fall in score. If the last two players were to score 120-150 between them this now raises us to 1780-1810. To bank an 1800 points each week would be a pretty good start I would think.


This system does take some guts, a gamblers instinct and the hope that some players will both come back from injury and rookies that will play. There is also questions over some players. there is obvisually more money to be saved from not taking the likes of Hill and instead picking Suban (saving $56,000), Rich for Beams, Zaharakis, Shuey or Andrew Collins (saving $40,000), Cousins for Lockyer (saving $4000) or either Pettard or Grimes for Hurley (saving $67,300 and $51,800 respectively) or Mat Maguire ($56,600 and $41,100) or either Suban or Trengove ($115,300 and $99,800), and finally Yarran for Robin Nahas (saving $46,300). At the most this can release a possible maximum of $362,000. Now, you may be saying "Why not use this spare money to buy a good ruck?" Well, why have a theory if you go against it to make yourself feel better? Here is another team that I have drawn together with the spare money:

B: J.Bowden, C.Cornes, N.Malceski, L.Hodge, B.Goddard, J.W.Smith, A.Raines
Subs: N.Suban, J.Trengove

M: J.Bartel, G.Ablett, J.Corey (c), D.Swan, A.Cooney, T.Boak
Subs: A.Collins, T.Swift

R: B.Renouf, T.West
Subs: D.Currie, J.Giles

F: M.Pavlich, B.Harvey (vc), S.Lucas, S.Higgins, T.Hentnchel, A.Nahas, S.Sidebottom
Subs: S.Gumbleton, H.Ballentyne

There is still some cash to save but for a team you need 22 on the ground. I have tried to get 30 players that will most likely play. FanFooty gives me an 1800 for this side. You may ask "Why not just take in this team? It's 60 points better off." Well, remember the cash cows? They are the ones I will trade later in the season to upgrade the forward line. Is this side really a 60 point better side? well that is debatable. It really depends on what the rookies do and I tend to have faith in players like Pettard who have been in the system for a while moreso that the highly rated rookies like Yarran and Sidebottom. I am also a fan of injury-return players. Everyone loves them. Murphy from last year was a revelation and this year I think it will be Higgins and Lucas. Hopefully Malceski can get back his form from two years ago and Jesse Smith is ready to explode. Like any DT side though questions will be asked about Raines, Hentnchel and Cousins but I have faith in both this system I have developed and my team.

My theory on this 'theory' is that you have too much time on your hands.

[shog]

What was your R1 score?

[nick1408]

1817.  Very poor.  I think the poor decision on playing Browne in the ruck instead of either Jacobs or Spencer killed me plus the ben cousins selection mainly.  Few other players i wasn't happy with but i am sticking with this as a wip

[hibbo]

nick1408, no offence mate but looking at your team that seems like a pretty par score for your team!
Yep u have put heaps of thought into your team, but the team honestly looks like some noob's team who has spent 5min on it and just doesn't think rucks are important.

Your forward line will be lucky to generate 500 points and your rucks will struggle to get 100. That's below 600 points from 9 of your players! I just can't see u getting over 2000 points for a while (until u upgrade players). But hopefully u improve considering the amount of time u have put into your team. :)

[Scratchy]

Really curious how has this played out 6 weeks in?

Obviously picking Harvey and Cousins and a couple of others has bitten you, but hey we've all had injuries, I've worked out that I've had 10 selected (including Gablett) who have missed 2 or more games due to injury,

So without using injuries as an excuse what's your honest impression of your theory now, and how is it scoring/where is it ranked?
How many trades have you made?

[nick1408]

sorry for the time between replies.  I will be doing this all over again this season and hope to keep the thread more up to date.