A. Swallow to Ablett... now or just before his finals bye? (league only)

[Possumo]

So, after bagging a guy for going Swallow to Ablett 2 weeks ago (when Swallow had averaged 115 in his previous 5, and was priced near Ablett), it's more than a little ironic I'm now considering sidewaying Swallow as he is my only premium mid (bar Selwood) who has a bye during the finals.

My question is: Do I trade Swallow (his B/E is 147 this week) NOW  to Ablett (B/E of 92), or hope that Swallow regains some form and Ablett drops off for a bit, or just pray that Ablett get's injured and falls away as a top scorer?

My current midfield is: Swan, Boyd, Mitchell, Thompson, Swallow, Selwood (Iles, Hibberd/Heppell/Jacobs, Krak/Mzungu), with 5 premium backs plus Heppell (planning to get in Suckling after his bye) and 7 premium forwards, and I have 6 trades left, and 180k in the bank (which should be enough to get Boyd and a premium back).

Edit: Should have gone Lower to Suckling or Fisher last week... can only afford a 340k defender if I Lower (plus I have Adcock who isn't going well... is Rawlings a possible option (I should hopefully be in a position to win in the first week of the finals, which I guess shows the real reason I want Ablett... a genuine gun captain!). Should I just keep Swallow and upgrade to a premium back and save my trades? I guess I can always downgrade another defender if I need to... 3 trades left after that with very few out for the finals (Heppell, Selwood, Hibberd and Gibbs is all I have).

[Spinking]

If you are just looking at league win I'd hold off for now. I don't think Ablett will maintain that price for the rest of the season so he should remain in reach and you can make the trade when Swallow has the bye.  With limited trades it could be season over Ablett  gets injured or rested.

[mike_3456]

I'm pondering the exact same thing. Gary has a pretty good record against sydney and the roos have collingwood this week which may limit swallows scoring, so it doesnt seem a bad trade this week from that perspective.

[Andrew]

If you're looking for league win, hold off until the finals because you need that 175 out of Gary's averages (assuming he doesn't do it again...).

[Possumo]

Thanks for the replies guys... things in my league are a bit delicate at the moment, as although I'm currently 3rd, next week I am playing the 2nd from top team (who has the best avg score per round of 2040), who of course like most of the top team teams in my league has Ablett. Now it's likely that even with Ablett I will probably still lose (he has better players in pretty much every position :(), but the guy the week after is beatable (was top for a long while despite his avg being one of the lowest in our top 8), but again he has Ablett.

However, my last league match should be easy, and in fact losing the 2 matches prior could be a good thing for me, as I have worked out that if I finish 5th, I'll be playing one of the weaker team's in our league (6th and 7th are actually scoring better than I am, and will probably have better teams than I will by that stage...). It's a gamble though, but the chances are pretty good that I will finish either 4th or 5th, which will put me against a team I can hopefully beat.

Like I said before, Swallow's B/E is 147 this week, while Ablett's is 92. Can you see Ablett scoring below 125 and hence dropping in price? There are only 5 rounds left, and my worry is Swallow will continue to drop in price or at least won't score enough to pass 377k, whilst Ablett is probably not that likely to drop below 487k until at least 3 weeks... I agree about the possible injury risk, but I think that not having Ablett for next week and the week after could be more of a risk in terms of my ladder position (if 6th wins every game from here on out, and I don't manage to beat the current 4th in 2 weeks time, I could risk being 6th, which would put me against a better team the first and second rounds of the finals.

I'm pondering the exact same thing. Gary has a pretty good record against sydney and the roos have collingwood this week which may limit swallows scoring, so it doesnt seem a bad trade this week from that perspective.

Yeah the more I think about it, the more I feel I need to trade... although with my luck Ablett will probably suddenly drop off and I should have just waited :P

[Possumo]

Reflecting on it today, I think I will trade Lower to Fisher this week and hold off on getting rid of Swallow... Ablett might slow down near the end of the season anyway due to not having a late bye... so I might be better off waiting and picking up someone more unique and in better form (perhaps a Shiels or even the Brisbane boys Redden and Rockliff...). What do you guys think?