No such thing as second year blues!

[HTM]

Farout there is no such thing as Second Year Blues!!

Jack Grimes,Andy Otten, Dan Hannebery, Tom Rockcliff.. 2nd Years were fantastic.. just to name a few

So everyone stop saying "watch out for 2nd Year Blues.." you know nothing

However if they have played alot of games during there 1st year they are usually akwardly priced.. I have no doubt in my mind D.Martin, T.Scully, and J.Trengove will increase there average and rise in price, during there 2nd year..

Yeh i know Daniel Rich had a bad 2nd Year, but you cant call it 2nd year blues if it happens to 10% of 2nd Year Players

[DT87]

Second year blues generally applies to players who had good first years, and as a result get more attention from opponents in their second year. None of the guys you mentioned had good first years, so they were cheapies in their second year and hence rose in value. These types of players are worth considering in SC and DT.

The only player I can think of who had a decent first year and an outstanding second year is Bryce Gibbs. Otherwise, looking at the first and second years of guys who now average over 100, very few had decent first year and a significant improvement in average in their second year, pretty much all of them broke out in their third year or later.

The other reason why people will be avoiding guys like Tom Scully is that there are usually better picks at a similar price. Sure, Scully might lift his average by 10 or so this year, but for a similar price you can get Brad Sewell, who almost certainly will increase his average by more than Scully.

EDIT: I was thinking more of DT when I compared Scully with Sewell, as I am more of a DTer. However I am sure there are similar examples in SC.

[found in space]

i think the truth lies somewhere between the two...

[FactHunt]

The term "2nd year blues" is a funny one guys... while most players continue to improve in their 2nd year of footy (only natural), the term refers to the dramatic drop in "up-side" that a player has in their 2nd year. Have a look at the big guns, like Joel Selwood... first year out he played 18 games for an ave 77.3 sc points, in his second year he played 21 games managing an ave of 98.2 sc points thereby defying this "2nd year blues" rule. But for the average player, all of their "up-side" comes from actually getting games and increasing their sc value... once they've plateaued (or reached their average scoring potential) their up-side is gone and, well, you are far better off having a cheaper player with more up-side, or a more expensive player who will ave a greater weekly score. So basically when picking a 2nd year player, ask yourself how much up-side (or additional average scoring potential) does this bloke have?

[hawk_88]

The only player I can think of who had a decent first year and an outstanding second year is Bryce Gibbs. Otherwise, looking at the first and second years of guys who now average over 100, very few had decent first year and a significant improvement in average in their second year, pretty much all of them broke out in their third year or later.

Rioli comes to mind.

[tferrier18]

I think it's fair to say that the 2nd year blues do exist, but by no means is a given for every second year player

[hawk_88]

Obviously you can't apply some global rule to all players however there is certainly a trend that players that have stand out first years often don't do as well the second year, probably because they are given more attention by the opposition and don't have the experience with having that much attention so they don't know how deal with it.

Speaking more practically though, the rule just highlights good fantasy practice - bank on rookies and premiums. Mid-pricers can work out but tend to be much riskier so give it a lot of thought before you pick them.