Second Year Blues

[RayBarone]

One thing I always stumble on other people saying on this website is about how they wont pick a player because of the "second year blues" or "second year rule."

I dont agree with it at all.. it seems the second year rule or whatever only applies to players who exceed expectations or perform superbly in their first year ie Daniel Rich. (still averaged the same)

A first year player who plays a season and performs reasonably such as bryce gibbs tend to rise the next season (rise by 30 dt)

i'm not a believer in the second year blues theory and that is why

[bunyip]

I agree Ray, it's an urban myth.

[ossie85]

You bought up Daniel Rich, which is a perfect example of second-year blues.

It's not so much that there output will decrease, it is just that they won't increase significantly.

I.e. would you really want to pay $400k for Rich at the start of the year, for no increase? Or would you prefer spend half (or even less) on a player that will score the same? No brainer.

It isn't an urban myth.

Yes, they're are exceptions. Gibbs one of them, Selwood another.


But those who select Scully, Trengove, Martin, Banner, Banfield, Bastinac, Rockliff in 2011 aren't going to get much value. I'll be choosing Swallow, Bennell, Day, Krakouer, etc. Same output. Half the price.

[Cruiseon]

Definitey no urban myth, proved policy.

It doesn't just relate to rookies, it extends to mid/non premiun players in the $300-400k range. Pick premiums which you hope to lock in for the full year and pick good rookies who you hope to upgrage during the year.

Hopefully 2 or 3 rookies hold their spot all year like Pods, Barlow, Rockcliff last year, Rich the year before. Finally top up these two groups with value mid tier players where you think there is significant upside. These always present a degree or risk/judgement but last year Kennelly, Waters, Josh Hunt, Mcquire & Barry Hall are some that came to mind. Usually you end upgrading some of these to Premiums as well.

Just my 2 cents. My advice is to emotinally detach from those rookies who served you well the previous year.

[supercoach addict]

The rule definitely has some merit to it. But it doesn't really only apply to the second year, some duds still have the second year blues at 22 or 23. Just pick wisely.