plan of attack over the next 2 weeks

[thornz23]

ok so to start with i have 15 trades and 700 bucks.. my future upgrade targets are trengove/martin, nason/silvagni,ballantyne, pods/gumby/rockliff and maybe waters. I really want to jump on fyfe this week because im thinking he will probably bring in another 150k or so. my fwd line is rok gia brown brennan stevey j balla n pods atm with gumby and rockliff on the bench. none of the last 4 have peaked yet price wise (balla be =34, gumby -16,  -9 and rockliff -18)
since i dnt want to trade any of them, the only way im thinking i could do this is to downgrade one of my premiums who is set to drop big time this week ala brennan (BE 152) and brown (BE 143). Obviously brown is a definate keeper and brennan too is a premium and it would seem dumb to waste a trade on him but if i downgrade him to fyfe i make 290k and save the loss on what he would go down over the next couple of weeks...
Then with that 290k i can perhaps upgrade nason to hargrave this week and trengove to hayes/gibbs/montagna next week after he has another weeks price rise.
Then after fyfe and a couple of the other forwards have a chance to go up i can cull 3 of them and upgrade 2 to another 2 premiums. so all in all i will use 6 trades but it will give me another 4 premiums in my side.
I know it seems stupid to trade out a premium in brennan but long termn it could be a great idea...
Sooo thoughts..??

[elxam]

Have you factored in unexpected injuries Thornz ?

Nobody wants to trade out their premium but if you do then you need to have heaps more trades than what you have left now, IMO.

[MissPiesFF]

Would be easier to determine if you post your team also hun.

[thornz23]

@elxam
yeh i mean i would have a full team of keepers and would have hopefully 8 trades left for injuries. A little risky but hopefully i will also have majority of my bench players playing aswell so will only have to worry about LTI's and u wouldn't think u would have 8 LTI's in the last 12 weeks.

And my team is
Hodge, Gilbert, Carazzo, Enright, Malceski, Waters, Silvagni (nason, hams)

GAJ, Bartel, Swan, Stanton, Trengove, Barlow (shuey, martin)

Sandi, Hille (Warnock, Bass)

ROK, Brown, Brennan, Stevey j, Gia, Balla, Pods (Rockliff, Gumby)

[elxam]

Nice Mid Thornz!

It looks to me you'll still need to use 6 trades to bring in 3 (4-1) premiums  but you're doing it the more risky way. The risk will be the assumption that the 4 premiums you bring in will keep performing at the level you'd expect them to, without any topsy-turvy gyrations. Unfortunately, we all know that even the most reliable gun premiums have their lows and highs, and no body can predict the start and end of this cycle. We can estimate, guestimate, etc ... but we can never be 100% sure.

What happens when you let Brennan go and he starts performing again, because he has been through this form slump, and one (2, 3 or 4) of the premiums starts their slide down the abyss for a little while ?

When that happens you will not only gain nothing from this venture in terms of team performance you will also be the proud owner of less trades, those valuable trades, when you need them most.

[thornz23]

yeh good point and u r right i do only get 3 premiums now that i rethink it.  even if i do the brennan trade and 2 upgrades i lose a premium but in doing so gain 2 premiums and a fresh cash cow. while also avoiding brennans price drop over the next 2 weeks. In 2 or 3 weeks once gumby balla rockliff n pods have a chance to rise a bit more i can upgrade 2 of them (and fyfe later) to premiums by culling probably the most expensive 3. theres every chance i would get brennan back in the team depending how he goes over the next couple of weeks.
as for ure point on the premiums still performing.. i would probably upgrade trengove to gibbs who i can safely assume will keep performing, then nason to probably grimes/h shaw/bock/duffield etc Again one of the eiltes who u can rely on week in week out. then if i assume that my 4 fwds average out to about 270k each eventually and downgrade 2 to 90k players.. i have an extra 160k to use on the other 2 mid range players giving me two +400k players who again would be elites that u can rely on. So i don't think u would really have to worry about them performing

ultimately after another 3-4 weeks i would have 8-9 trades left and hopefully a team of say...

Hodge Gilbert, Enright, Carazzo, Shaw, Eski, Waters

GAJ, Swan, Bartel, Stanton, Gibbs, Barlow

Sandi, Hille

ROK, Brown, Pav, Didak, Stevey j, Gia, Balla

[keiranrib]

planning ahead is good, but i think planning this far ahead is borderline ridiculous, so much can happen in a few rounds of football and half these players you have mentioned can get injured.  i like to think of the upcoming round trades and how those will affect next week and that's as far as i go. i do like the idea of having a whole field of premiums and7 trades for injuries though :)

[thornz23]

haha i no its tempting hey. But u are right there is every chance these guys could get injured but i think by taking this sort of risk u either set ureself up to do really well  orrrr u could fail :P. But doing it the other way might just leave u around the middle of the pack all year. Also if one of the premiums get injured between now and when i hope to pick them i would obviously get another premium instead :P

[thornz23]

bump