LS 2018 Discussions

[frenzy]

The problem with Goldy is Preuss who will get game time and neither can play forward like Cox. A very big risk imo

Dean or Mason?

[LordSneeze]

First of all I love the expensive place holders. When actual teams come out with the rookies that are named you could potentially bring in another premium.

Defence all have solid picks so I can't fault them. I also would choose Simpson over Witherden.

It has already been said that having no danger is a risk but with the 5 mid premiums that you have chosen I wouldn't be toooooo worried. All could be top 10 come seasons end. If you can get Danger in however, I would.

Although I am starting Nic Nat I can see why you are not however I don't think Goldy is the answer. I would prefer Jacobs who is a similar price from memory. Think of all the hitouts to advantage with the likes of Gibbs, Sloane and Crouch x2 at his feet. If i can find the extra money I will be putting Jacobs in over Nic Nat. North are rebuilding and my dad who is there biggest (and probably only supporter ;)) thinks that Preuss will take over the number one ruck role come seasons end, whether that is true or not I don't know.

Forwards are all good options. Barlow is a tricky one as he is 50k cheaper than most options and is most likely to go 110 out of all forwards however his bye and the fact that he could still be used as a half forward have put me off him for now.

Overall it is a great start mate. Well done :)

Yeah Expensive rookies are the way to go in a starter team, if you start the rookies you think might play and then they don't you have to change your entire stucture. With this format you get to upgrade if it happens.

Yes I am definitely on Simpson over Witherden. Will watch the preseason for his role.

No Danger is a risk, but if you play your money correctly on a PP$ then you can offset it in the short term, cover the lesser cash generation through getting him at a discount. With his price this year it is the only year I have felt that the gain you can get not selecting him outweighs the benefit. Still might follow the crowd by season start.

Im totally off Nic Nat, there is no way that I will be picking him this year. That might backfire, but I just don't see the benefit in picking a player who could breakdown at any point, be rested at any point, might not score well, limited TOG etc. Unless it appears that Pruess is going to be the number 1 ruck I will be going with Goldy. Im not going to give up all the reasons why, but I have more than enough to lock him in right now. FYI Jacobs has been crossed off my list as I cannot see how he improves his scoring.

The Barlow Bye is tricky, that might depend on my confidence in the rookies and where he is playing in preseason. I expect him to be a big POD.

[LordSneeze]

Consider Kruezer for NN - same bye, no other obvious ruck (Lobbe no chance), solid season in 2017 and little injury; also gets the outlet kick a la Martin

Way too overpriced IMO. Last year he increased his career best hitout average by 20% and 33% on the year prior. Chances of him maintaining that is low. He also had 10 scores under 90.

[LordSneeze]

Nice side first up LS. Simpson/WitherGOAT is a tough one, I've locked WitherGOAT into my side from the outset but Simpson has gone 90+ the last decade so is clearly a good option.

Rucks have to be Gawn/Naitanui really.

Fwds are solid, shot in the dark this year really.

Re: Danger/No Danger, personally I can see reasons for and against. Would only not pick him if I could find a better way to use the extra $150k odd, which would be tough.

I don't think you have to start NicNat. There is quite a bit of risk associated with him, and obviously huge upside as well. But if he goes down, or is managed throughout the season, guys like Goldy, Kreuz, Stef, Grundy, Sauce etc could easily be better starting picks.

Totally agree with you on this.   Goldy can definitely be a great POD with ability to top 2500 points for the year and give you a great boost over the field.   To me it is Goldy, Jacobs or NicNat at R2.   Why a playing R3 would be a godsend.   Nice team LS that prompts thought from others on why they have started Danger.   Though I feel Toby will outscore Luke this year at the Dogs.

Goldy is locked for me barring something unforeseen. I agree this is the first year that Danger does not seem like a lock as he is soo expensive in comparison to what else you can get for value.
I agree on Dahl & Toby, Dahl was just a placeholder at this point.

[LordSneeze]

I've done the 'no danger' in the past with previous best players (ie Gaz), regretted it every time. They do drop at times, like Danger did this year around Rd 8. But you need a lot of shower to go your way. He had two games under 100, and a 120, so he dropped off 150k, and it happened at just the right time to trade him in (Rd 8).

You get a player doing this out of the gates and you have to trade up, means trading out a premo still and getting rid of a rookie that probably still has growing to do.

There are safer ways to chase a bargain than gambling on guns.

Exactly. Would much rather gamble on someone like Goldy than I would by not starting Danger.

Fair points, though Goldy has Preuss and Daw pushing for selection also. Naitanui has Lycett, but I don't see them competing for R1.

I don't agree, I believe gambling on Cripps, Bont, Coniglio is more of a risk than gambling on not starting Danger. The key to getting it right is using the cash correctly and still getting those top 10 players for there position. By not starting Danger the midprice risks become premiums

[frenzy]

yep, you just need a couple of $117k rookies named rnd 1 ( like all of us ) and convert a few of your expensive fellas to them for cash to upgrade to Danger.

[Bully]

Nice side first up LS. Simpson/WitherGOAT is a tough one, I've locked WitherGOAT into my side from the outset but Simpson has gone 90+ the last decade so is clearly a good option.

Rucks have to be Gawn/Naitanui really.

Fwds are solid, shot in the dark this year really.

Re: Danger/No Danger, personally I can see reasons for and against. Would only not pick him if I could find a better way to use the extra $150k odd, which would be tough.

I don't think you have to start NicNat. There is quite a bit of risk associated with him, and obviously huge upside as well. But if he goes down, or is managed throughout the season, guys like Goldy, Kreuz, Stef, Grundy, Sauce etc could easily be better starting picks.

Totally agree with you on this.   Goldy can definitely be a great POD with ability to top 2500 points for the year and give you a great boost over the field.   To me it is Goldy, Jacobs or NicNat at R2.   Why a playing R3 would be a godsend.   Nice team LS that prompts thought from others on why they have started Danger.   Though I feel Toby will outscore Luke this year at the Dogs.

Goldy is locked for me barring something unforeseen. I agree this is the first year that Danger does not seem like a lock as he is soo expensive in comparison to what else you can get for value.
I agree on Dahl & Toby, Dahl was just a placeholder at this point.

I'm intrigued by the Goldy talk, I want to pick him and I almost certainly would if Preuss was out of the equation. having gone over the stats there''s a couple of injury games & a 32 which saw him play forward for the entire match. Take those out and he's averaging 100. Just for a comparison with Sauce & Grundy.

100's
Goldy - 9/19
Sauce - 10/22
Grundy - 9/20

If we adopt the trend is your friend principle one has to go with Sauce & Grundy who both finished the season off really well. But the question remains, will North revert back to Goldy as sole ruck. Cannot forget he went from 93 avg in 2012 to a 113 avg the year after. Still only 29 which is on par with Sauce.

[LordSneeze]

Finally got around to setting up a proper team



Def
Rookies - I see the def rookies scoring closer to the premiums than those of the fwds. This means better cash generation and more points. Naughton, Murray, Finlayson im confident in. Coffield is the one to miss out as I expect lower scores and less cash generation. Murphy is the ? and depending on teams might switch him to Coffield.
Prems - Laird picks himself. Hibberd I believe is more solid than Hurley or Yeo. Simpson is Mr Consistent and without Doc I see him being more important to their structures. Shaw was on the list, but id prefer to see him before I buy him.

Mid
Rookies - Brayshaw, Brodie, Holman, Banfield should be locks. Expecting Constable will change to Kelly, last spot not yet decided.
Prems - Mitchell is my consistent, Oliver's play style suits SC so well he is unlikely to have many off games, Kelly is just a gun and really can only get better. Fyfe is a lock and Pendles is IMO underpriced for what he can produce.

Rucks
Gawn = Lock, Goldy = Lock IMO, Cameron may play and to me that chance is better than having a donut.

Fwds
Rookies - Fritch picks himself if named and showed enough to be on field. Waterman IMO is ahead of venables in point scoring potential, Ryan about the same. Not locked on those 2 picks yet, will need to wait for teams to be named. Fogarty, Stephenson to me either don't have the scoring potential or JS to be worth starting. Happy to use a correction is I need to ahead of round 3.
Prems - This is where I have taken a little bit more risk. Franklin while variance is high should be a lock for top 6 forwards, Billings should be able to continue don't see much risk in him being a top 10 pick. Walters is underpriced if he runs through the midfield. Taylor I can see taking the next step and becoming a top 10 forward this year. Trengrove I believe will be the main ruck for WB and is well underpriced if that happens. All else fails with Taylor and Trengrove and surely someone in the MP range will breakout that I can correction trade too.

[fasttrack13]

Like the explanations.
Simpson is definitely an upgrade target, have gotten him discounted by 50k+ last 3 years.
Would say you'd need danger even if he misses 1-2 weeks (Unless you got a plan to get him very early).
I think pendles is under priced too, he'd be in the same category for me as shaw is for you.
Trengove definitely a good pick should be no.1 ruck, Taylor not so too small (thinking jarryd blair)... Not sure if its worth the risk in potentially burning the trade

[LordSneeze]

Like the explanations.
Simpson is definitely an upgrade target, have gotten him discounted by 50k+ last 3 years.
Would say you'd need danger even if he misses 1-2 weeks (Unless you got a plan to get him very early).
I think pendles is under priced too, he'd be in the same category for me as shaw is for you.
Trengove definitely a good pick should be no.1 ruck, Taylor not so too small (thinking jarryd blair)... Not sure if its worth the risk in potentially burning the trade

Thanks Mate,
Simpson for me is a different proposition without Doc. I backed him in from the start in his big year, ignored him last year and picked him up cheaper. This year I feel that most of the top defenders have ? on them, Simpson to me is a more solid choice.

I have no intention of starting Danger (Even before his injury I wasn't going too), while he will be tough to get in the value is goo enough elsewhere to cover until I can.

I understand the reasoning on Pendles, most people that are dsaying wait on Pendles are people starting Cripps, Bont, Parker whom have no where near the history of scoring behind them. If I get a diff of Pendles vs any of those 3 I would be quite happy.

Im not 100% on Trengrove being number 1 ruck yet, but I believe he showed over the JLT that he will be a ruckman that provides additional benefit when rucking and around the ground, im confident he will be an 80 average with a good chance at 85-90. A better option to me than Lobb (No preseason), O'Meara/Armitage (No chance of being a prem).

Taylor is my real left field pick and TBH this is the one im likely to change to someone else. Whether that is drop to a Lobb, Young, Bell etc or sideways to a 450k player or find cash and upgrade to another locked prem I haven't yet decided.

[RaisyDaisy]

DEF/MID/FWD are pretty standard so nothing really out of line but I do like that you've gone with a few prems who have low ownership although I'd be nervous starting 6 rookies because although they all might line up R1 a few of them could be dropped shortly after and with not many other mid rookies looking likely you could be stuck with one or two of them so for that reason I would want another solid JS type at M6. Whether that's another prem or someone cheaper like a Conigs/JOM type etc it should just give you much needed depth

Can't really understand the Taylor pick because although he might do alright by selecting him you're essentially expecting him to do better than Devon and Petracca and I can't see that happening

As for Trengove I just can't see any way that he becomes a good pick. He has shown that even when sole ruck he can put up plenty of sub 80 scores, and he just isn't going to be the main ruck all year round with so many other options like Campbell, Rough and Boyd floating around. At his price he needs to turn into a keeper and there is flower all chances of that happening. I'd much rather bank the cash and grab Bundy or even Bell because at their prices they don't need to become keepers and can be good stepping stones while providing similar scores and JS

[LordSneeze]

Made a couple of small changes.

Devon Smith comes in for Taylor. same price, better team, better upside.
Tim Kelly in for Constable.

If i need more cash for the named rookies either Oliver or Kelly will be downgraded to either
Zorko (Only possible if i only need a tiny amount of $)
Bont (9 matches over 120 last year, variance is quite high which could be a risk)
Beams (Potential 115, but injury concerns, iven i have few risky picks i could do this.)
Selwood (Bull, but id prefer to see how Geelong are tracking before trading any of them in)
Heeney (Opens up MF DPP in short term with Walters and Rookies)

Or

Hibberd or Simpson will be dowgraded to Heath Shaw or Jake Lloyd