Defence

[LordSneeze]

Defence has arguably always been one of the hardest positions to pick effectively. Several Prior year premiums seemingly always dropping off, while some breakout contenders ultimately taking the jump into the premium ranks. Going into this year Sam Docherty was being touted as a lock and was likely to be in over 50% of sides, limiting the other selections we were going to see. That was until injury struck and now we have a wide range of different strategies at that top range, all with good arguments for against.

Potential Strategies
GNR â€" The pure guns and rookies strategy â€" 3 of the top expected scorers with 5 rookies.

Speculative â€" 3-5 Guns to Midprice players who you expect to atleast maintain or take the next step. 3-5 Rookies.

Mid Price Madness â€" No Premiums, Bat deeper with midprice options with greater early scoring potential, highly reliant on midpricers becoming premium

Rookie Focus â€" Playing extra on field rookies allowing you to see the best options and upgrade. Spending extra on other lines.

Scoring Breakdown
100+ = 4
95-99 = 1
90-94 = 8
85-89 = 6
80-84 = 14
75-79 = 21
70-74 = 25
65-69 = 28
60-64 = 24
-60 = 72
Total = 203

Based on the players listed as Defenders this year there was 13 that averaged over 90 last year. From the distribution it would appear that the 85 points would be an acceptable level for premium status. This would be the base average that I would be expecting for any mid-price selection to turn into a premium. Any lower than this and you are beginning to get into the mid-price scoring territory.


Top 5 Scoring Options
Based on the above I class premium scorers as anyone who averaged over 85 for the year.

Docherty - Led the way with a massive 114.7 (+12.2 on next best), however due to his injury its pretty pointless

Hurley â€" Coming in at an average of 102.5 after starting the year poorly with an average of 82 for the first 4 rounds before turning it around with 12 tons in 16 matches including 6 over 120. Hurley’s points came predominantly through Possessions +5 on 2015 (just over a 2:1 kick to handball ratio, career trend follows this) and Marks Averaging 8 per game +2 on 2015. The problem with Hurley is that his points are not padded by Tackles or Scoreboard pressure, so if we see a drop from his career high possession numbers its likely that a drop in average will be see.

Yeo â€" A switch from Fwd status and a healthy average of 102.1 makes Yeo tempting. An increase in possessions +6 & Marks +3 is a good sign, but this was a very big increase. However I am slightly concerned with his drop off towards the end of last year. 8/11 over 100 before the byes compared to 2/10 after the byes. While his scores weren’t poor by any means, it shows that his price may be slightly over valued.

Laird â€" Averaged 100.1 with a career high possessions of 30.1. 3 years in a row averaging over 92 makes Laird a fairly safe choice, the question marks are can he maintain such high possession numbers and how the loss of Smith & Lever will impact him. Gibbs, Seedman, Doodee coming in.

Hibberd â€" Averaged 99, but had 3 sub 70 scores. His ceiling is relatively high with a peak of 140 in R 18 vs Port. With Lever coming it the question mark is over how this will impact Hibberd, will it impact him marking numbers, provide better options for spread.

Overall I believe that all of the top 5 options have great potential and are highly likely to be in that 90+ range and part of the top 10 scorers, but I also see them as all being at peak price and likely to be cheaper at some point this year.

My strategy
Personally I believe I will be taking the speculative strategy, either one or none of the above top 4 and 2 or 3 players Im confident will average 85 with a high chance to average 90+ and possible chance to be 95+. This will allow room to bring in the other 3 if they all are in the top 4, or pick up breakout options either sideways or upgrade.

[shaker]

Guns and rookies for me as long as there is enough rookies and cheaper players Hurley , Yeo , Laird

[SilverLion]

I like the speculative strategy this year. Not sold on all the top defenders so will only be picking Laird followed by 2 speculative premiums and possible a mid-pricer.

[Holz]

I like the top defenders and i think there is value up front.

Laird Hibberd Hurley Howe i feel are more solid then the fwd premos.

[Money Shot]

I like the top defenders and i think there is value up front.

Laird Hibberd Hurley Howe i feel are more solid then the fwd premos.

Agree.

3 of Hurley, Laird, Yeo and Hibberd
1 of Brayshaw/Birchall/Carlton player in the 200-350k price range ;)
4 rookies

is how things are looking for me at this stage.

[quinny88]

3 premos, Birchall and rookies for me.
Unless the rookies look really good then I will drop Birch for an extra rookie and load up elsewhere

[Grufflez]

I like Williams and McGrath.

I haven't written off Heath Shaw yet either.

[Peter]

Really comes down to keeping flexible as there doesn’t appear to me any obvious Def rookies that will play R1, so whilst you can have 3 guns now, one may need to be sacrificed for Round 1

[Money Shot]

Really comes down to keeping flexible as there doesn’t appear to me any obvious Def rookies that will play R1, so whilst you can have 3 guns now, one may need to be sacrificed for Round 1

Coffield, Hibberd, Naughton, O'shea, O'brien, Brander, Ling, Richards, Murphy, Doedee, Morgan, Murray, Keefe, Garner are some guys that I think could get a spot come round 1 and there are always other cheap options that pop up.

All we need is 4.

[meow meow]

Handball first picked down back for me.

[Nige]

Handball first picked down back for me.

Keep it quiet.

[eaglesman]

I like the top defenders and i think there is value up front.

Laird Hibberd Hurley Howe i feel are more solid then the fwd premos.

Exactly this

[eaglesman]

Handball first picked down back for me.

Keep it quiet.

Maybe for me.

[Hoggyz_a_legend]

Handball first picked down back for me.

Keep it quiet.

Who's Handball?

[enzedder]

I'm hoping there's enough suitable rookie defenders that I don't have to use Birchall but at 277k he's a good option.
My top 3 premo defender choices, considering starting prices, byes and likely to be top 10 at year's end are Laird, Hibberd and Simpson.

Laird - 550k, 2015-2017 averages 93, 97, 100 and durable, hasn't missed many games. High possession getter and I think he's a safe choice. I'm not concerned about: Gibbs coming in, Lever's exit and Smith missing most of the season. Laird will still rack it up and be a prime user for the Crows in 2018. Looks a solid 90+ and will be a popular pick. Round 14 bye.

Hibberd - 545k, 2017 average 99, awesome first year at Melbourne after the year's suspension/ lay off period. Lever's arrival will mean that he takes a tall and Hibberd is freed up more as a third tall defender, like Roberton at St.Kilda in 2017. Can only see it being beneficial to his scoring. Melbourne will win more than they will lose and with only Oliver and McDonald scoring more points than him in 2017 at the Dees, and in the latter's case it was only because of him playing an extra 4 games, Hibberd will be getting his share of the scaled 3300pts up for grabs. Round 13 bye.

Simpson - 516k, has missed 3 games over the last 100 years, averaged 90+ over the last 8 years including 106 in 2016 and 96 last season.  No Docherty. He's more important to the Blues than ever. Cannot see him falling below 90. Round 12 bye. Yeo is the other main defender to consider with the R12 bye and he's 561k.