LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 5

[LaHug]

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[LaHug]

A Monday and a Tuesday game this week mean late outs and unknown final benches are gonna hurt people. Better get those captains right! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. Requests probably won't happen this year but feel free to point out anyone obvious I've missed.

The facts & thoughts:

Murphy
Last 3: 124, 145, 125 (131 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 91, 122, 24 (79 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 24 (24 avg)

Form against Port isn't anything special but Murphy's start to the year has been incredible. You've gotta consider him each week until he shows signs of slowing. Prediction - 130

Rockliff
Last 3: 157, 106, 123 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 88, 149, 102 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 106, 127, 179 (137 avg)

Rocky was the difference last week and now he's back at Etihad where he's killed it so many times. He's a bit risky with some low scores against the Dogs in the past but his ceiling speaks for itself. Prediction - 125

Zorko
Last 3: 139, 117, 108 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 107, 108, 63 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 100, 102 (106 avg)

Not quite as good as Rocky but Zorko has been great this year and there's no reason it won't continue on the weekend. Prediction - 115

Ablett
Last 3: 118, 138, 69 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 22, 98, 109 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 138, 105, 63 (102 avg)

Two weeks in a row now and it looks like GAJ might be back for real. Of course, they were two wins and you wouldn't expect the same against the Crows. His record against them isn't amazing in recent years but it's not bad either. Expect a ton but maybe wait another week before considering him for the C. Prediction - 110

Sloane
Last 3: 143, 139, 152 (145 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 106, 90, 67 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 106, 67, 67 (80 avg)

Bang! Bang! Bang! Three weeks in a row for Sloane. The last two weeks were expected though and that's where this week gets dangerous. Sloane usually plays to his history and his history against the Suns isn't as good as his current form. Don't be sucked in this week. Prediction - 110

Fyfe
Last 3: 95, 110, 116 (107 avg)
Last 3 against North: 137, 90, 111 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 110, 110, 59 (93 avg)

Fyfe hasn't been quite as great as we'd hoped this year but he's still good enough for a ton most weeks. Against the Roos, he should be good but the ceiling just doesn't look there this year. Prediction - 115

Neale
Last 3: 119, 88, 97 (101 avg)
Last 3 against North: 132, 97, 151 (127 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 88, 92, 110 (97 avg)

Neale was good last week but has been below his lofty standards for most of the year. Against the Roos, he has a great history, but is that enough to take the risk? Prediction - 115

Riewoldt
Last 3: 122, 137, 99 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 116, 113, 41 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 122, 137, 99 (119 avg)

How annoyed must you be if you traded Riewoldt out because of his injury?! He's come back firing after one week off with a 137 and a 122. With his history against the Cats, he doesn't look like slowing. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
Last 3: 93, 117, 139 (116 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 95, 122, 94 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 139, 105 (120 avg)

Danger was the icing on the cake in a disappointing week for many. Just a 93 last week and his history against the Saints makes him far from the best option this week. He's good enough at Etihad though so I expect him to bounce back strong. Prediction - 115

Selwood
Last 3: 105, 137, 119 (120 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 113, 88, 70 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 137, 119, 79 (112 avg)

Selwood is currently in better form than his star team mate and was the better of the pair last time they played the Saints. Loves it at Etihad and should be good. Prediction - 115

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 125, 115, 125 (122 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 92, 41, 74 (69 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 125, 125, 128 (126 avg)

A classic case of form vs. history. Mitchell's been great this year, particularly at the MCG, but West Coast is easily his worst team to play. I'm leaning towards form with a low of 115 this year but be wary. Prediction - 120

Gaff
Last 3: 97, 107, 115 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 115, 111, 103 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 107, 117, 100 (108 avg)

Slowed down a bit after his huge Round 1. Gaff is consistently good against the Hawks and should be good again this week. Prediction - 110

D. Martin
Last 3: 63, 156, 86 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 82, 84, 115 (94 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 156, 86, 139 (127 avg)

Dusty was well beaten last week and now comes against a Melbourne outfit he's been less than impressive against. His MCG form is hard to ignore but the risk outweighs the reward this week. Prediction - 100

Heppell
Last 3: 66, 115, 96 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 90, 138, 83 (104 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 156, 90 (120 avg)

Definitely a roughie this week, Heppell doesn't have the form this year to back in. However, his ANZAC Day history is 138, 129, 100, 111, 107 over his career. A roughie to consider. Prediction - 110

Merrett
Last 3: 134, 97, 140 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 66, 86, 94 (82 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 97, 129, 115 (114 avg)

Merrett sucks against the Pies but his fantasy form over the last 12 months makes him a weekly consideration. Too many good options this week to risk it though. Prediction - 95

Pendlebury
Last 3: 84, 115, 110 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 127, 85, 118 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 110, 135, 107 (117 avg)

Another gun playing on ANZAC Day. Pendles has been great on the big day with 8 tons from 10 clashes, including a 127 last year. Prediction - 115

Treloar
Last 3: 93, 134, 127 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 129, 102, 130 (120 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 127, 125, 126 (126 avg)

Treloar disappointed last week but has been great this year otherwise. A 129 in his first ANZAC Day clash last year and amazing form at the MCG. Prediction - 125

Adams
Last 3: 107, 137, 99 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 108, 127, 127 (121 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 151, 95 (115 avg)

Yet another Magpie that loves playing the Bombers. We all know Adams has a high ceiling but is he worth the risk this week with so many other good options? Numbers say he'll be great. Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Sidebottom
Last 3: 113, 126, 64 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 144, 91, 109 (115 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 64, 124, 117 (102 avg)

The numbers don't look amazing at first, at least not enough to be my chosen roughie, but wait for it... Sidebottom's last three ANZAC Day games: 144, 124, 143 (137 avg). Gusty prediction - 140

The verdict:
1.   Murphy (130)

2.   Rockliff (125)
3.   Treloar (125)
4.   T. Mitchell (120)
5.   Riewoldt (120)

[Ricochet]

Have had the C on Rocky all year and will keep it there this week

[WhatMate]

You dont make my options look great mate; torn between Danger, Mitchell and Adams.

Might even have to consider some of the second line guys like Laird, Doch and Smartin, especially the latter who could be due for a big one.

[GoLions]

Have had the C on Rocky all year and will keep it there this week

[LaHug]

Haven't had Rocky all year because I'm an idiot

[Ricochet]

Haha Huggy

[Thunderbolts]

LOL Huggy!!  Great writeup as usual :)

Rocky for me even though I stupidly moved off him just prior to last lockout in round 4 :(

[Mat0369]

It's pretty difficult to back up those monster scores but if someone is going to do it, it will be Rocky