2017 Profile - Taylor Adams

[LordSneeze]

Player â€" Taylor Adams
Club â€" Collingwood
Position â€" Defender/Midfielder
Price - $527,800
2015 Games/Average â€" 18 / 97.9
2016 Games/Average â€" 14 / 97

Injury/News Notes if required â€" Injured Knee, Ankle & Hamstring last year.

Key 2015 vs 2016 Stats
The main potential Adams has is if he can continue to improve his DE% from 62.3% in 2015 to 71.5% in 2016. This improvement can be explained through an increase in his uncontested possessions 15.5 to 17.5 per game. Based on the stats most of Adams improvements to DE & Free Kicks last year were offset by other smaller declines, clearance 5.3 to 4.7, Tackles 5 to 4.4, goal assists 0.9 to 0.4.
Overall Adams stats show little room for improvement, as I don’t see huge improvement in his efficiency or numbers off Half Back. His Disposal numbers aren’t going to improve overall, DE% is unlikely to improve to 75%+ given his struggles previously, tackles are already strong, inside 50 and rebound 50s are solid.   

Scoring History
2015
120+ = 4
100-120 = 5
80-100 = 4
<80 = 5 (1x Sub)
Variance = 83

2016
120+ = 1
100-120 = 6
80-100 = 4
<80 = 3 (2x injury affected)
Variance = 63

A total of 32 games over the last 2 years with 25% of these being sub 80, going from these stats if Adams played every game this year you could realistically expect 4-5 sub 80 games, but equally you could expect 9 100+ games.
Priced at an average of 97 this is a high price to be paying for a player that does score sub 80. When you consider his injury history and the possible need to cover him with a rookie early, a 7th Defender later, or a trade im a little wary. 

Draw
Collingwood really doesn’t have the best start with only 3 home games in the first 7 including tough fixtures Home to WB, Away to Sydney and Away to Geelong.

Analysis
The change to Adams position is the only reason that he is even under consideration this year, if he was still a midfielder 99% of players would cross him off the list with as much care as a lion eating its food. Priced at an average of 97 (No Discount) and with a long injury history behind him there is so much risk involved in this pick when you consider the other options for premium defenders around that price.
It is highly unlikely that Adams will play every game, so lets look at an example.
Let’s say he plays 18 for arguments sake and if you consider the need to cover with a 70 scoring defender for 4 games and he improves and averages 100, your effective score is 94.54 point per game.
Adams has upside from this example, but also downside. In no way would Adams be a bad pick, but there are likely to be better more consistent starting options around the same price.

Verdict
Consider, but be wary
Adams is priced as a premium and with his injury history there are risks galore in this pick. I struggle to see where the improvement can come from in Adams stats and scores without him moving back into a Midfield role.
I can see Adams being hyped up by the media coming into the season and thus selected in a large amount of teams, so not picking him might provide you with a good POD against an injury prone player.
In no way though would Adams be a bad pick, but just be aware that he is an injury risk and doesn’t appear to have huge upside. I see there being safer options in defence at this price point. 

[Gigantor]

Pass for me, his injury track record is a massive turn off. D7-D8 are usually two of your weakest players so you don't want to be using them too often

Would rather pay the extra for Shaw and Doch or pick Rance for a similar price.

[crowls]

Pass for me, his injury track record is a massive turn off. D7-D8 are usually two of your weakest players so you don't want to be using them too often

Would rather pay the extra for Shaw and Doch or pick Rance for a similar price.

Another great review LS.    Got me thinking about the benefit of Adams over a Laird, Rance or paying for Simmo.

[_wato]

I know it's a risk, but you just cannot say no to a bloke who will play inside mid and is able to be picked as a defender. Averaged 28 touches this year and loves the contested ball. All I can see is points points points.

[RaisyDaisy]

I know it's a risk, but you just cannot say no to a bloke who will play inside mid and is able to be picked as a defender. Averaged 28 touches this year and loves the contested ball. All I can see is points points points.

Yet only averaged 97

My initial thoughts when positions were released was yep he's a lock, but having given it some more thought I don't think he is

Pies have such a deep midfield, and I have no doubt he will average 90-100 but at his price, I think there others I'd prefer starting. Every chance he ends up in my team sometime throughout the season, but don't think I'd be starting him at that price considering his injury history. I'd like to see where he plays first, so upgrade target for me

[shaker]

If he can overcome his injury woes I can see him going to the next level seriously thinking of starting him in the mids then moving him to the backs later on

[fasttrack13]

His role won't change to much, will probably play more midfield time with return of defenders Ramsay and Sinclair. There's plenty to choose from down back, for once, this year so he isn't a must have. He should average higher than 97 IMO.

[Samsturmfels]

Adams as a D/M is awesome, and is someone who I know will score well when playing
He has average 97 sc points in the last 2 years and seems to have averaged the most disposals out of all the defenders listed in sc. Although Adams has had injury problems, hopefully this pies can get on top of these injuries to have an successful year

[j959]

Great analysis LordS - cheers mate!  ;D