2017 Profile - Toby Greene

[LordSneeze]

Player â€" Toby Greene
Club â€" GWS
Position â€" Forward
Price - $492,000
2015 Games/Average â€" 22/ 82.5
2016 Games/Average â€" 21 /90.4

Injury/News Notes if required â€"Nothing to Report

Key 2015 vs 2016 Stats
Eventhough the majority of Greene’s stats went backwards in 2016 his overall supercoach production increases. This was pretty well based solely in a 1.2 Goal per game increase. There was a period of 8 games where he kicked 25 goals at an average of 3.125 per game yet due to a poor FK ratio his average was only 94.12. This his goal per game run is not sustainable for Greene, outside of this period his average was 88.15. I would argue that this is a more realistic expectation of Greene. One of the biggest downsides of Greene is this DE% (66.9%) and Clangers (4.3 per game), his stats and impact on games is good enough to be a 100+ average, yet with his disposal efficiency being so low and not looking like improving it is unlikely to see any improvement in scores.


Scoring History
2015
120+ = 1
100-120 = 3
80-100 = 9
<80 = 9 (2 Sub Affected)
Variance = 83

2016
120+ = 3
100-120 = 7
80-100 = 4
<80 = 7
Variance = 78

When you see a player increase their average by 10 plus you would be hoping that it would be the low scores that are improved, providing more stability in making the pick. Instead the improvement in Greene was from his 80-100 scores becoming consistently over 100. 4 scores over 100 in 2015 compared to 10 last year shows the potential Greene has, however the problem in picking him lies in those sub 80 scores, on any given week he can stink it up and cause you to lose a key head to head matchup.

Draw
GWS has a pretty difficult draw with 4 top 8 sides in the first 8 games, with only 3 of these at home. Double up games against Sydney, WB, Rich, WCE & Geelong. While GWS should be around the mark with its team alone, will this result in more points?

Analysis
When you consider the expectations for acceptable premiums in the forwards this year arguably 90 would be the expectation for an acceptable pick. While Greene improved from 2015 to 2016, his low floor is a blight on his attractiveness as a pick to start the year, and to be honest as an upgrade target. When you add in the potential impact of Deledio and the overall strength of the GWS midfield, it is hard to know exactly where and what role he will play this year. Even though it is likely to be on the HFF and he should maintain last years production, im still a little unsure and wary. 

Verdict
Overall Greene is a difficult proposition, as it is easy to see his potential and if he breaks out into the player that we all know he could be, and then he will be a must in every forward line. The problem is that if he doesn’t then you will be in a position where you have a player that could lose you a week at any given moment.
You then have the impact of Deledio coming into the side, putting a small question makr on what role Greene will play in the forward line. I wouldn’t rule out picking Greene, especially with the difficulty in picking forwards this year, but IMO it is more beneficial wait and see with him when you have other options that are relatively more “safe”

[crowls]

Another great assessment LS.     strong points on why other fwds offer similar or better scores with less variance and risk.   
keep up the quality work mate, much appreciated.

[Peter]

Great summary and completely agree

[djbics]

Awesome work LS, great analysis