LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 17

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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It's that time of year where the best scorers become obvious yet many of last week's locks weren't nearly as big as we'd hoped. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 115, 106, 88 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 88, 108, 102 (99 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 106, 88, 129 (108 avg)

JPK typically scores around 100 against his old club so you no what to expect from him again this week. Prediction - 100

Hannebery
Last 3: 103, 127, 91 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 99, 90, 119 (103 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 127, 91, 125 (114 avg)

Can't see enough from him to expect a big score. Prediction - 100

Parker
Last 3: 98, 158, 140 (132 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 103, 86, 116 (102 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 158, 140, 59 (119 avg)

Last week, we were reminded that Parker's less dominant away from the SCG. This week, we have him back at home. He's got to be tempting but his record against the Hawks is far from good enough. Prediction - 110

Hodge
Last 3: 118, 111, 63 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 133, 157, 106 (132 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 87, 103, 60 (83 avg)

You gotta consider Hodgey this week if you have him after dominating the Swans in their last couple of outings. One of them was the 2014 Grand Final where he kicked ass for 157 points. He's been worryingly average in their SCG matchups though. Prediction - 115

Lewis
Last 3: 100, 113, 106 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 73, 98, 116 (96 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 108, 74, 90 (91 avg)

Was pretty mediocre last week but has a run of tons going now. Expect another but not by much. Prediction - 100

Neale
Last 3: 130, 87, 128 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 95, 57, 59 (70 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 128, 126, 149 (134 avg)

Last week's 130 was great and Neale has been superb at home. However, he's 0/3 for tons against the Cats. Importantly, the Cats aren't tagging and a good tag is what's been slowing Neale this year. I reckon he does well based on that. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
Last 3: 139, 95, 143 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 147, 66, 98 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 142, 66, 126 (111 avg)

147 last time he played them and a 142 last time in Perth. On top of that, he has good recent form. The kicker? Freo gave up 10 tons to Melbourne last week. This means Danger is super safe with a big ceiling. Perfect combination for a captain. Prediction - 135

Selwood
Last 3: 95, 113, 102 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 107, 130, 138 (125 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 61, 138, 135 (111 avg)

Selwood's been great against Freo ever since Crowley disappeared and I'd say he'll be great again, particularly with Freo willingly leaking points. Prediction - 130

D. Martin
Last 3: 103, 99, 127 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 123, 66, 107 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 127, 137, 123 (129 avg)

Dusty won the medal against the Bombers earlier this year and is in outstanding form. Expect a great game from him at the MCG where he's been loving it. Prediction - 125

Cotchin
Last 3: 95, 63, 93 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 120, 108, 113 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 93, 121, 120 (111 avg)

Cotch was also great against the Bombers in the Dreamtime match but his recent form has me a bit worried. He should ton but I'm not overly confident, even without a tag. Prediction - 110

Merrett
Last 3: 126, 123, 105 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 115, 80, 59 (85 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 98, 66 (93 avg)

Another bloke in great form, Zach will score well against the Tigers, likely beating his 115 from last time if form is something to go by. Prediction - 120

Goldstein
Last 3: 106, 101, 81 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 103, 93, 85 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 81, 91, 138 (103 avg)

Trengove is more competent than we first game him credit for but I still think Goldstein will smash him. Recent form says it's not worth betting too much on though, so look elsewhere. Prediction - 110

Gray
Last 3: 115, 107, 76 (99 avg)
Last 3 against North: 71, 70, 84 (75 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 80, 67 (86 avg)

A nice little bit of form for Gray might come to a quick halt this week. North aren't exactly giving up boatloads of points and Gray has a horrendous history against them. Prediction - 90

Hunter
Last 3: 90, 133, 91 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 57, 92 (75 avg)
Last 3 at Cairns: 57, 92 (75 avg)

I don't see enough in this matchup's history for me to look at Hunter this week but he could still be good. Gold Coast without Ablett and Rischitelli makes for a sorry picture and the inflation of a big win makes Hunter's score a bit more tempting. Prediction - 105

Boyd
Last 3: 104, 129, 98 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 111, 109, 112 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Cairns: 111, 109 (110 avg)

Boyd has some very respectable numbers against the Suns which, with GAJ and Rischitelli out, makes him a legitimate option this week. Prediction - 120

Bontempelli
Last 3: 115, 129, 104 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 129, 57, 49 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Cairns: 129, 57 (93 avg)

Many people will likely look at the Bont as a straight swap for GAJ this week and it's a legitimate choice. In this matchup last year, the Bont scored 129. With is current form and against the depleted Suns, I expect something similar. Prediction - 125

Sloane
Last 3: 123, 125, 139 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 117, 62, 104 (94 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 139, 140, 81 (120 avg)

Did you guys want another reason to bring in Sloane this week. His 117 against the Pies in their last matchup will be beaten this week, for sure, as he's in a rich vein of form and playing at home where he's been killing it. Prediction - 125

Pendlebury
Last 3: 91, 124, 83 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 98, 97, 101 (99 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 112, 101 (107 avg)

Really not great against the Crows but, surprisingly, better when in Adelaide. Might not get to the ton based on recent form. Prediction - 95

Sidebottom
Last 3: 119, 64, 84 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 123, 107, 105 (112 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 107, 107 (107 avg)

Bounced back very well last week and is great against the Crows. What's to stop Sidey slumping again, you ask? Taylor Adams. In 6 games without Adams this year, Sidey averages 87. In 7 games with him, he averages 115. Prediction - 120

Gibbs
Last 3: 104, 104, 126 (111 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 125, 121, 93 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 104, 104, 136 (115 avg)

Expect Gibbs to get another ton this week and make it a good one. He's great against the Eagles and his recent form is more than good enough. Prediction - 115

Steven
Last 3: 158, 65, 93 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 113, 87, 93 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 158, 93, 132 (128 avg)

Earlier this year, Steven followed two poor scores with a 138 against the Bombers and another two scores over 130 in his next three. I'm not saying he'll do it again, but he might. Jack scored 113 against the Dees earlier this year and will probably do something a bit better this week based on his ability to carry momentum with him. Prediction - 120

Riewoldt
Last 3: 95, 97, 116 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 126, 112, 124 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 95, 116, 136 (116 avg)

Roo was great against the Dees earlier this year and I can't see why he won't be again. Hell, he's always good against them! Prediction - 120

Rockliff
Last 3: 101, 101, 135 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 75, 95, 125 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 135, 142, 132 (136 avg)

So much for that Rocky 140+ last week! Still, I think he goes well enough this week to be worth a look. My concern is his poor scoring against the Giants but he hasn't played them since 2014 and I like him at home enough to look past it. Prediction - 120

Zorko
Last 3: 90, 147, 100 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 84, 71, 84 (80 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 147, 100, 106 (118 avg)

Another guy that's not great against the Giants but is good at the Gabba. However, Zorko doesn't have the history of scoring that Rocky does so he's not worth the risk. Prediction - 105

S. Martin
Last 3: 100, 105, 111 (105 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 116, 100 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 111, 61, 44 (72 avg)

Loves his matchups against Mummy and, with his new found form, he'll ton again this week. Prediction - 110

Ward
Last 3: 61, 104, 74 (80 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 149, 129, 52 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 129, 52, 90 (90 avg)

That 149 is really, really tempting but not with his current form and a possible Robinson tag. Prediction - 110

Shaw
Last 3: 69, 42, 116 (76 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 70, 97, 61 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 97, 61, 113 (90 avg)

If I didn't already have two spuds, he'd be down below in that segment. Shaw is in poor form after copping some tags and could get tagged again. He sucks against the Lions so I'd stay far away. Prediction - 75

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Hopefully, you didn't go with Parker last week and took his inability to ton at Kardinia as a reason to stay clear. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Barlow
Last 3: 107, 159, 90 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 145, 137, 98 (127 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 159, 113, 59 (110 avg)

Picking a guy coming back from an injury seems silly but it's just a finger injury so his fitness should be fine. 141 over his last two against the Cats and 133 over his last two at home. Gotta be worth more than just a look. Gutsy prediction - 140

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Of course, the moment I call Sidebottom out, he scores well... Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 95, 62, 114 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 87, 87, 95 (90 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 62, 114, 163 (113 avg)

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 84, 121, 99 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 53, 77, 117 (82 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 51, 79, 91 (74 avg)

This week is a bit harsh for Tom and very fair for Sam. Last time they played each other, Tom was probably best on ground. But best on ground meant he did his job to perfection by tagging Sam out of the game. They'll match up again this week and probably score poorly because of it. Spudictions: Tom - 85, Sam - 60

The verdict:
1.   Dangerfield (135)

2.   Selwood (130)
3.   Sloane (125)
4.   D. Martin (125)
5.   Bontempelli (125)

Requests:



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[Thunderbolts]

Fantastic read La Hug..... Will prolly VC Hodge or TMitch tonight to see and if not good will be Dangermouse all the way :)

[Mr.Craig]

Just throwing it out there - Jack Macrae has scored 168 and 143 in his two trips to Cairns.