STK vs MEL Round 17

[Barra13]

I have a feeling that whoever it was at the AFL who framed the draw for the Round 17 fixture might have a good sense of humour. After kicking off proceedings on Thursday night with an absolute ripper of a game between two teams that might well end up facing each other again on the last Saturday in September, the rest of what's on offer is pretty much rubbish.

The game at Adelaide Oval involving a resurgent Collingwood could be of interest now that the Magpie faithful have declared their team a sure thing to make the finals but most of the games in the round are complete mismatches on current form. Of course, when the draw was prepared at the end of last season, it was difficult to predict exactly how the teams would be faring in the midst of winter in the year to come or that the top eight would be virtually set in stone barring some sort of major calamity. Still, you have to admit, there is a dull, colourless and boring feel about the eight match ups on show from Friday night to Sunday evening.

However, there is one game that shapes up as a possible exception among all of the drudgery, a game that presents itself as a possible bookend to the opening game of the round and I'm not talking here of the potential farce at the Gabba starting at 4.40pm. Rather, I allude to Sunday's clash at Etihad Stadium between St Kilda and Melbourne, which unlike their last meeting 11 weeks ago, is a Saints home game. The contest shapes up as the AFL's saving grace for the weekend.

The two sides are sitting among a group of four teams on seven wins and three games behind eighth placed North Melbourne but with very little chance of making the finals unless they win most (if not all) of their remaining games and the Kangaroos' free fall continues. Neither outcome is particularly likely to result in a change to the makeup of the current top eight.

The Saints hit a high a fortnight ago when they fought out a gutsy win against Geelong (who themselves have put in some flakey performances of late) but have been disappointing in their more recent outings, losing to lowly Gold Coast by 40 points and coming close to joining the Demons last week as an ignominious loser to the depleted Bombers of 2016. They also have suffered some real poundings in their interstate games this year.

Melbourne on the other hand, rebounded in Darwin last week against the Dockers after losing consecutive games to the finals bound Swans and Crows. They seem to be enjoying the better form of this week's contestants.However, that was exactly the case when the teams met earlier in the year and the Dees started out as firm favourite to break their then 12 game losing streak against the Saints which stretches all the way back to the 2006 Elimination Final when Nathan Jones' career was in its infancy.

It turned out that St Kilda was the superior side at their last meeting despite Jesse Hogan's almost single handed seven goal haul up forward. Max Gawn had a rare down day in the ruck against Tom Hickey, the Saints defence and midfield were dominant with their pace and the Demons lacked the poise and discipline to hold the Saints' playmakers. After being in doubt to play all week, Nick Riewoldt was virtually untouchable producing a team killing virtuoso performance. There were no excuses from the Melbourne camp but it was conceded that having an unbalanced and seemingly tired-looking outfit on the park after a six day break was unhelpful.

So what will Melbourne produce to make up for that lacklustre effort from earlier this season? The answer to that lies in the changes to the team's structure since that last performance. The defence in particular is more streamlined and far less stodgy - they will not be outpaced as they were last time - and the leakage down back has been stemmed. The forward line won't be relying on Hogan alone. Jack Watts, Jeff Garlett and Dean Kent are all dangerous in front of goal. Max Gawn will be eager to prove that he is deserving of his 2016 reputation as one of the two top ruckmen going around and the midfield, which is now ranking third in contested possessions will relish the contest. And someone will be assigned to make sure that Riewoldt is not permitted to roam around the stadium doing as he pleases.

Melbourne to win by 29 points.

THE GAME

St Kilda v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium Sunday 17 July 2016 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall  St Kilda 90 wins Melbourne 118 wins 1 drawn

At Etihad  St Kilda 7 wins Melbourne 3 wins

Past five meetings St Kilda 5 wins Melbourne 0 wins

The Coaches Richardson 4 wins Roos 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Channel 7 Fox Sports 3 Live at 3.00pm

RADIO - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING St. Kilda to win - $2.00 to win Melbourne to win - $1.82

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

St. Kilda 20.15.135  defeated Melbourne 15.6.96 in Round 6, 2016  at Etihad Stadium

Melbourne started favourite to beat its long-running St Kilda hoodoo and got off to a solid start when it led by almost three goals halfway through the opening term. However, the wheels fell off as the Saints took over in the midfield and ran the Demons ragged. They looked slow and indecisive and but for a great individual effort from Jesse Hogan and some accurate kicking for goal, would have gone down by a far greater margin.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Sam Frost, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta
HB: Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald, Jack Grimes
C: Christian Petracca, Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson
HF: Jeff Garlett, Jack Watts, James Harmes
F: Aaron vandenBerg, Jesse Hogan, Dean Kent
FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney
I/C (from): Angus Brayshaw, Billy Stretch, Tomas Bugg, Ben Kennedy, Mitch White, Josh Wagner, Matt Jones

IN: Bugg, Wagner, Brayshaw

[Purple 77]

So...

We're playing at a venue we're traditionally awful at

Against a team we're traditionally awful against

Coming off a Darwin game, where we traditionally haven't been able to recover properly from in the following week

Against a team who plays well at the venue

But nup! We're the favourites to win according to the bookies apparently!

[Pkbaldy]

You'll win this one. I can feel it in my balls.

Melb by 22.

[Purple 77]

You'll win this one. I can feel it in my balls.

Melb by 22.

Perhaps we both overestimate our teams ability to stuff up?  :-X

St Kilda just know how to play us, and it annoys the hell out of me

And for goodness sake, CAN WE PLEASE MAN UP ON NICK flowerING RIEWOLDT THIS TIME?!?!?!?!?!

But just quietly, Jesse has kicked 12 goals in 2 games against the Saints, it seems like the Saints are his favourite team to play against  :-X

[Pkbaldy]

You'll win this one. I can feel it in my balls.

Melb by 22.

Perhaps we both overestimate our teams ability to stuff up?  :-X

St Kilda just know how to play us, and it annoys the hell out of me

And for goodness sake, CAN WE PLEASE MAN UP ON NICK flowerING RIEWOLDT THIS TIME?!?!?!?!?!

But just quietly, Jesse has kicked 12 goals in 2 games against the Saints, it seems like the Saints are his favourite team to play against  :-X

He'll make it 22 in 3 games after the weekend. haha.

I'm hoping that Membrey turns it up again too. He was so good against you guys last time. He's slowly becoming a favourite of mine.

[Nige]

But just quietly, Jesse has kicked 12 goals in 2 games against the Saints, it seems like the Saints are his favourite team to play against  :-X

I noticed this and was that close to making him VC in SC Americas this week.

Not sure what Nate Jones' record vs the Saints is, but he got the VC instead.  :P

[Bill Manspeaker]

But just quietly, Jesse has kicked 12 goals in 2 games against the Saints, it seems like the Saints are his favourite team to play against  :-X

that changes next year when Jakey Carlisle comes in  :P

not confident at all this week. haven't gone into many games confident though. but for some reason I think we'll get the win. way to contradict myself  :P

will be a great game if both teams come to play