Nic Nat

[Marstar]

I think what Holz is trying to say is that him playing as a midfielder for the Cats will hurt his score, rather than improve it, and hence won't be as good of a pick

correct.

rucks score well in SC this guy isnt a ruck he is just listed as a ruck. Now danger is in he is the 3rd best mid in his team at best. so he wont get points from HTA to advantage and If i had the ball in my hands or was tapping it down to anyone it would be given to danger selwood. so where does his points come from.

he will still get them but i think Martin NN Jacobs maybe even Gawn will score as well if not better and he isnt cheap like last year. so no upside only downside.

If there was a cheap F/M I actually would think about him either at r2 to swing into the mids or in the mids as a super backup. there isnt so he isnt a good pick in my view.

Sweet thanks Holz. Much easier to understand.

Can I put in a follow up question?

Understanding that Blitz is an Athlete 1st and an AFL player second .... when I look at previous up and comers like Beams/Sidebottom when Pendles+Swan dominated or Sydney who produce 4 tonne mids in 4 years ... is Heeney next? :p or even L.Neale currently with Fyfe/Mundy/Barlow ....

Why can't Blitz score 105 again as the 3rd mid ... or even 4th?

Is he a 1 hit wonder and teams will have planned over the preseason to negate his influence from now on in a way his lack of AFL ability will be unable to overcome?

P.s. I'm not suggesting he's in the same league as Beams et al above  :p

[Mat0369]

I'm pretty sure he had the most 3rd man up hit outs in the league. Hit out to advantage stats are really difficult to find, but I am assuming a fair chunk of these went to advantage for a couple reasons. First the other ruck generally prevents the opposition ruck from contesting legitimately. Secondly teams often get burnt if they aren't to advantage because the opposition have another midfielder at ground level. If he has a high percentage to advantage here Holz that is where those +5's are coming from.

Does anyone else remember the 2011 prelim? The Hawks were winning the game but lacked a legitimate ruck so Lewis was going 3rd man up at almost every contest. Eventually the Pies caught on and used the extra ground level player to their advantage. If teams can either neutralize Blicavs as a 3rd man up by winning the ball off his taps or even just splitting it, it could see Geelong abondon this tactic and in turn his scoring would drop significantly.

Also having a semi legitimate ruck option in Smith could see them go with a more 1 on 1 approach and even have Blicavs in a run with role (he did it for a short time on Pendles so it is something they have trialed.) His elite tank will help him hurt guys the other way once the game wears on just through link up play using his running ability. I think until you see how Smith and Blicavs work in tandem and what his actual role is there are too many question marks.

[Marstar]

Thanks Matt ... much appreciated.

[Holz]

I think what Holz is trying to say is that him playing as a midfielder for the Cats will hurt his score, rather than improve it, and hence won't be as good of a pick

correct.

rucks score well in SC this guy isnt a ruck he is just listed as a ruck. Now danger is in he is the 3rd best mid in his team at best. so he wont get points from HTA to advantage and If i had the ball in my hands or was tapping it down to anyone it would be given to danger selwood. so where does his points come from.

he will still get them but i think Martin NN Jacobs maybe even Gawn will score as well if not better and he isnt cheap like last year. so no upside only downside.

If there was a cheap F/M I actually would think about him either at r2 to swing into the mids or in the mids as a super backup. there isnt so he isnt a good pick in my view.

Sweet thanks Holz. Much easier to understand.

Can I put in a follow up question?

Understanding that Blitz is an Athlete 1st and an AFL player second .... when I look at previous up and comers like Beams/Sidebottom when Pendles+Swan dominated or Sydney who produce 4 tonne mids in 4 years ... is Heeney next? :p or even L.Neale currently with Fyfe/Mundy/Barlow ....

Why can't Blitz score 105 again as the 3rd mid ... or even 4th?

Is he a 1 hit wonder and teams will have planned over the preseason to negate his influence from now on in a way his lack of AFL ability will be unable to overcome?

P.s. I'm not suggesting he's in the same league as Beams et al above  :p

im bo no means suggesting he will be a flop. Its more there are only 2 rucks spots and i wouldnt spend my money on him to fill those two spots.

you would hope he finishes top 5 as he is the 6th most expensive ruck. 5th when you remove mummy which i do due to the massive injury history.

He will get points as a third man up no doubt and probably wont get any attention but even so Danger and Selwood are two of best players in the afl similar to pendles swan (maybe even better)

its hard seeing him going 110 which I think NN could do. Goldy is a perma lock.

remember this is a thread about NN.

Goldy locked
NN over everyone else

hence I wouldn't pick Blicavs at 562

[GoLions]

Yeah he's Gawnnnn

[timtim]

Yeah he's Gawnnnn

Yeah for up to 8 weeks....

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-06-13/achilles-surgery-to-sideline-nic-nat-for-up-to-eight-weeks