LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 9

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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That awkward moment when your top 5 only average 95 for the week... Moving on! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 74, 66, 101 (80 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 77, 117, 146 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 101, 146, 124 (124 avg)

Last week, I said he'd be good barring fitness issues. Surely there were fitness issues! In his current form, you just can't go there, but Sydney did leak 6 tons against the Tigers and let Deledio rack up 25 disposals in the first half alone! Prediction - 110

Lewis
Last 3: 107, 117, 58 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 98, 116, 139 (118 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 117, 59, 110 (95 avg)

The numbers would've suggested a lot more last week which just shows his form is down. Still, a ton is a ton and he has a great record against Sydney. Prediction - 115

Hannebery
Last 3: 120, 102, 136 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 90, 119, 82 (97 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 120, 119, 74 (104 avg)

The one that just keeps fighting! Even with his numbers not great against the Hawks, it's impossible to say with any confidence that he won't ton up. Prediction - 110

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 115, 91, 99 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 108, 102, 100 (103 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 102, 136, 100 (113 avg)

Consistently gets low tons against the Hawks so expect another one if he plays. Prediction - 105

Pendlebury
Last 3: 106, 118, 85 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 142, 121, 94 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 118, 127, 103 (116 avg)

Looking at those numbers, it's only his current form I'm worried about. Everything was set for him to go huge last week but he only got 106. Will be good but better captains. Prediction - 115

Sidebottom
Last 3: 97, 109, 96 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 111, 126, 87 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 144, 122 (125 avg)

Similar form issues to Pendles. Usually relishes one-sided games but couldn't get a ton against the Lions. Prediction - 100

Treloar
Last 3: 131, 96, 119 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 106, 95, 101 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 96, 129, 123 (116 avg)

Difficult to predict but I think he's better in a win which makes this week one you should look elsewhere. Prediction - 110

Selwood
Last 3: 82, 103, 126 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 57, 117, 116 (97 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 97, 85, 57 (80 avg)

Never have I seen someone work harder to not get the ball so many times. Watching the game last week, Joel must have upset his team mates during the week because they went away from him every time. He'll bounce back this week against a Pies team he's usually solid against. Prediction - 110

Dangerfield
Last 3: 129, 113, 129 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 114, 89, 135 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 86, 137, 108 (110 avg)

The in-form Cat and his record against the Pies says yep! Prediction - 125

Ablett
Last 3: 82, 82, 90 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 22, 98, 109 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 82, 91, 124 (99 avg)

If you have the luxury trades, get rid of him. He's injured, he might not even play, and he won't be tonning up this week. Prediction - 85

Sloane
Last 3: 155, 74, 135 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 90, 67, 113 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 67, 67, 125 (86 avg)

Won't be backing up last week's effort (which was a bloody good effort!). That said, the Suns suck right now so he'll do better than the numbers suggest. Prediction - 115

Goldstein
Last 3: 109, 113, 64 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 102, 97, 73 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 109, 113, 64 (95 avg)

Kreuzer's injured and Trengove scored 95 from the ruck against Carlton last week. Goldy will outdo that with ease. Prediction - 115

Gibbs
Last 3: 133, 136, 125 (131 avg)
Last 3 against North: 115, 63, 74 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 133, 84, 80 (99 avg)

Four weeks ago, I traded out Gibbs... he averages 126 since. At first, I thought he was scoring well because Carlton were finally winning but maybe, just maybe, Carlton are finally winning because Gibbs is playing well! It's not like North don't give up tons against teams they're better than, either, with Merrett's 143 and Cooney & Goddard with 113s. Prediction - 130

Barlow
Last 3: 59, 124, 138 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 106, 94, 113 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 59, 138, 99 (99 avg)

Not even sure he'll get a recall this week but he's good against the Tigers. Prediction - 105

D. Martin
Last 3: 123, 99, 114 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 100, 142, 111 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 68, 142, 101 (104 avg)

If you didn't get him last week, jump the hell on now! Great against Freo, no problems with flying out West, and is back in form. Prediction - 120

Ellis
Last 3: 110, 87, 115 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 116, 102, 105 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 78, 102, 72 (84 avg)

One of the few Richmond players you can rely on to at least get the ball and has done it time and time again against the Dockers. Prediction - 110

Viney
Last 3: 135, 99, 118 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 82, 62, 75 (73 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 135, 134, 110 (126 avg)

Viney is one of two players I've talked myself out of trading in this season. If I do it again, I'll let you all know who it is so you can jump on. The other is doing just as well! Basically, form is so good I'd ignore the Brisbane history. Prediction - 120

Zorko
Last 3: 122, 110, 148 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 124, 57, 66 (82 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 124, 130, 74 (109 avg)

Almost forgot this guy because I'm so sad that I still don't have him. His form is stupidly good and get got a solid 124 against the Dees last year at this very ground. Can't see why he wouldn't match it again. Prediction - 125

Ward
Last 3: 91, 113, 110 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 70, 59, 55 (61 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 91, 110, 92 (98 avg)

Hates playing his old team and, with the exception of Viney, mids have struggled against the Dogs in recent weeks. Prediction - 85

Coniglio
Last 3: 101, 129, 119 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 90, 78, 66 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 101, 119, 50 (90 avg)

The other guy I talked myself out of getting (see, I'm not good with trades) has continued to get tons, although less convincingly last week. Similarly to Ward, he doesn't like playing the Dogs and they're too stingy for my liking. Prediction - 95

Shaw
Last 3: 132, 109, 135 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 136, 113, 85 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 132, 135, 74 (114 avg)

Last week, I said you couldn't and you probably should have. This week, I say go for it! Look at those numbers! Prediction - 125

Steven
Last 3: 83, 58, 113 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 142, 124, 73 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 58, 113, 100 (90 avg)

The once permacaptain has had quite a fall from grace. Fear not, he has great form against the Bombers and this Bombers outfit is, well... they show heart! Prediction - 115

Armitage
Last 3: 60, 58, 74 (64 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 140, 129, 90 (120 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 58, 74, 93 (75 avg)

Last year's form, he'd be my number one. If you back him this week, and it pays off, I'll eat a shoe or something... I dunno. Prediction - 90

Riewoldt
Last 3: 101, 144, 126 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 121, 111, 93 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 144, 126, 137 (136 avg)

I honestly can't remember when Roo was last my number one (it's happened before, I'm sure of that) but it's happening again. Form is good, record against Essendon is good, just dominant at Etihad, and the Saints are primed to bounce back with a 25+ possie, 4+ goal, BOG performance from Roo. Prediction - 135

Montagna
Last 3: 129, 109, 76 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 120, 135, 99 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 109, 76, 68 (84 avg)

Might be four big Saints scores this week with Joey another one that has form and record on his side. Prediction - 120

Merrett
Last 3: 143, 117, 98 (119 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 65, 75 (70 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 143, 107, 118 (123 avg)

Made me look stupid for doubting him last week. Might not be as good this week but he's clearly back. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Special note: I'm saddened to hear of Roughie's recent bad news. Cancer sucks but you can always help the fight by donating, paying attention to your body, having regular checkups, and being smart when you're out in the sun. Get better soon, Roughie!

Well, you didn't get the 175 if you went with Goldy, but a ton was more than serviceable in a rough week. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Adams
Last 3: 119, 108, 106 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 135, 55, 18 (69 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 108, 106, 106 (107 avg)

A few tons in a row now, and comfortable getting them at the MCG. What's interesting here is that 135 from last year. It was games like these that made everyone jump on him this year. Are you brave enough to captain him? I mean, Sloane got 155 against the Cats in a loss... Gutsy Prediction - 135

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

When everything goes wrong, your spud smashes it, and Zach Merrett made me look stupid last week. Double spuds this week to make up for it. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Parker
Last 3: 69, 91, 141 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 86, 116, 56 (86 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 69, 114, 116 (100 avg)

Two weeks in a row under 100 (i.e. two weeks since I traded him in...) and now he's back at the MCG for the second week in a row, against a team that will play extra hard for their mate Roughy. Those couple of down scores against the Hawks have me worried it'll be three in a row under 100. Spudiction - 80

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 61, 130, 106 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 87, 95, 54 (79 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 61, 95, 101 (86 avg)

And while we're looking at Swans to back up disappointing scores, look no further than the ever popular Tom Mitchell. Those three games are his only three against the Hawks and, sadly, they're all vest-free. Spudiction - 75

The verdict:
1.   Riewoldt (135)

2.   Gibbs (130)
3.   Dangerfield (125)
4.   Shaw (125)
5.   Zorko (125)

Requests:

Neale   - Requested by LF
Last 3: 108, 99, 115 (107 avg)   
Last 3 against Richmond: 57, 91, 57 (68 avg)   
Last 3 at Subi: 99, 130, 79 (103 avg)   

My concerns about Neale are limited to this: he sucks against Richmond with 0 tons from 6 career attempts and an average if 61 against them (with no vests dragging that down). His form says low ton but his history drags that down a bit. Prediction - 85

Wines   - Requested by LF
Last 3: 94, 118, 84 (99 avg)   
Last 3 against West Coast: 88, 72 (80 avg)   
Last 3 at AO: 118, 111, 90 (106 avg)   

This is a tricky one for me because the Eagles have been awful away from home this year but they've played three of the best teams in the comp. Against the Hawks, they gave up 8 tons with Gibson's 157 and Mitchell's 146 highlights. It was just the 4 for the Swans before another 8 for Geelong. I'm banking on it being a "can't travel" thing and, with Robbie Gray back, I think Port rustles West Coast into leaking tons. This means, despite being 0/2 on his career, Wines will be breaking that 100 mark. Prediction - 110



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LaHug]

At the request of some to extend the poll a bit, I've added all options that I've predicted as 120+. This week, a lot of regular options aren't up there, so I'm sure it'll upset some still, but it should work out well for you all in future weeks.

[LF]

Lachie Neale,Zorko and Ollie Wines if possible Huggy

Nroo has the C slapped on him for me in DT America's this week even before I read this haha

Awesome write up as per usual as well

[WhatMate]

Heath Shaw, can't look past him! Fantastic as always LH

[Thunderbolts]

Great read as usual....Danger has to be the man for this week  :)

[LaHug]

Lachie Neale,Zorko and Ollie Wines if possible Huggy

Nroo has the C slapped on him for me in DT America's this week even before I read this haha

Awesome write up as per usual as well

I forgot Zorko and he's minutes away from being added to the main post. The other two will come tonight (I hope).

[LaHug]

Added Zorko and put him in the poll. He knocks Viney out of the top 5.

[HappyDEZ]

Someone else AKA Jack Steven

[LaHug]

Neale   - Requested by LF
Last 3: 108, 99, 115 (107 avg)   
Last 3 against Richmond: 57, 91, 57 (68 avg)   
Last 3 at Subi: 99, 130, 79 (103 avg)   

My concerns about Neale are limited to this: he sucks against Richmond with 0 tons from 6 career attempts and an average if 61 against them (with no vests dragging that down). His form says low ton but his history drags that down a bit. Prediction - 85



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LaHug]

Wines   - Requested by LF
Last 3: 94, 118, 84 (99 avg)   
Last 3 against West Coast: 88, 72 (80 avg)   
Last 3 at AO: 118, 111, 90 (106 avg)   

This is a tricky one for me because the Eagles have been awful away from home this year but they've played three of the best teams in the comp. Against the Hawks, they gave up 8 tons with Gibson's 157 and Mitchell's 146 highlights. It was just the 4 for the Swans before another 8 for Geelong. I'm banking on it being a "can't travel" thing and, with Robbie Gray back, I think Port rustles West Coast into leaking tons. This means, despite being 0/2 on his career, Wines will be breaking that 100 mark. Prediction - 110



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LF]

Thanks for that Huggy
Neale's history is a tad worrying for my DT

[Chelskiman]

Dunno whether to go Joey or stay safe with Danger.  Might stay safe after Titchell's effort last week.