LAHUG'S CAPTAINS 2015 - ROUND 1 - PART 1

[LaHug]

5 years. 5 long years I've been doing this and all I've got out of it is a HoF induction, lots of appreciation, some satisfaction, and a bit of fun. Actually, that's not half bad! Now if only someone would pay me... ;)

I'm back again! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will try to give some details of their opponents recent stinginess or generosity, and I might even look at the weather (if I'm organised). I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. As per usual, if you have any requests, let me know and I'll see what I can do (no promises).

I'm doing a short writeup for now because... We have a partial lockout this week for the Richmond vs. Carlton game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Tigers or Blues as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain. This should be easy if you have a non-playing ruck rookie.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

The facts:

Martin
2014 avg: 97.6
Best 3 of 2014: 128 vs. Sydney, 123 vs. North, 115 vs. Brisbane and Melbourne
Last 3 against Carlton: 89, 65, 28 (61 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 74, 115 (98 avg)

Ellis
2014 avg: 96.1
Best 3 of 2014: 127 vs. GWS, 125 vs. Hawthorn, 123 vs. Essendon
Last 3 against Carlton: 93, 69, 55 (72 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 80, 123, 110 (104 avg)

Deledio
2014 avg: 96.8
Best 3 of 2014: 132 vs. Gold Coast, 127 vs. Sydney, 126 vs. St Kilda
Last 3 against Carlton: 74, 91, 114 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 108, 104, 125 (112 avg)

Cotchin
2014 avg: 100.9
Best 3 of 2014: 138 vs. Brisbane, 138 vs. St Kilda, 127 vs Gold Coast
Last 3 against Carlton: 79, 109, 51 (80 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 60, 113, 113 (95 avg)

Gibbs
2014 avg: 101.4
Best 3 of 2014: 139 vs. Geelong, 131 vs. St Kilda, 121 vs. West Coast
Last 3 against Richmond: 61, 102, 90 (84 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 87, 95, 112 (98 avg)

Simpson
2014 avg: 92.0
Best 3 of 2014: 145 vs. St Kilda, 143 vs. Adelaide, 120 vs. North
Last 3 against Richmond: 96, 82, 109 (96 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 102, 81 (94 avg)

Murphy
2014 avg: 96.2
Best 3 of 2014: 153 vs. Brisbane, 146 vs. West Coast, 141 vs. Bulldogs
Last 3 against Richmond: 103, 111, 84 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 74, 88, 72 (78 avg)

The thoughts:

Martin
I wouldn't back him as a VC option this week unless you've got nobody else. He's historically poor again the Blues with 0 tons from 10 games. Some are touting this as Martin's year, so he might do better, but you want your VC to smash the ton and Dusty's shown no signs of doing that against the Blues. His very best scores of last year might not even be worth locking in as a VC. Prediction - 90 (max 110)

Ellis
Like Dusty, Ellis is poor against the Blues with no tons in 6 games. He has good form at the MCG going for him but that's about it. He showed the ability to score big in 2013 but replaced that with some steadier consistency year and, frankly, you probably shouldn't even have him in your team. Prediction - 95 (max 120)

Deledio
Our best option yet (yay?) is Lids who, with forward status this year, should see himself in a few teams. His record against the Blues leaves much to desire with only 2 tons from 19 attempts but, hey, it's better than 0. He's likely to crack out a decent but not amazing score. Prediction - 95 (max 120)

Cotchin
What I have concluded is that Richmond players are no good against Carlton. In this same fixture last year, Richmond's top scorer was Matt Thomas with 107. Seriously ugly stuff. Cotchin is the best scorer of these four but he's just as unlikely to give you anything worth keeping. To top it off, he's susceptible to a tag. Prediction - 90 (max 115)

Gibbs
Gibbs was tagged for 61 in this fixture last year but that was a role that Ellis played and my gut says he won't go to him again. In previous opening fixtures, Gibbs was often a VC option with 133, 104, and 147 in the previous three. If I had him in my team, I'd give him the VC on gut feeling alone. Be wary that he's under an injury cloud and listed as "Test". Prediction - 100 (max 135)

Simpson
Simpson can score big which is obviously a huge factor in picking a loophole VC. He's often a popular backline pick so the other benefit of loopholing his is not missing out if a lot of others do. He's also decent at the MCG and against the Tigers. Prediction - 95 (max 135)

Murphy
The Carlton captain has the high scores next to his name to make him worth considering as a VC. Better yet, he actually scores well against the Tigers, with 5 tons from his last 6 and a career average of 99.1. Does anyone have him in their team though? Prediction - 105 (max 140)

The verdict:
1.   Murphy (105 - max 140)
2.   Gibbs (100 - max 135)
3.   Deledio (95 - max 120)
Or any Richmond/Carlton player you have.

Requests:
Note: Pretty unlikely that I'll get to any requests before Thursday's game as I'm working my bum off on my new and improved spreadsheet so that I can get out a full post for the rest of the games. Sorry :(

[LF]

Great to see your back again Huggy :)

[R.Griffen]

Great to see your back again Huggy :)

[LaHug]

First one for the year! I'm using a new spreadsheet that I only started setting up on Sunday (it's taken a while...) with a lot of stuff automated. The plus side is that it will save me a lot of time in future. The downside is that it hasn't been tested. Please, if you see any mistakes, let me know!

I'm hoping I'll have all the data put in by Thursday so I can post the rest of the round by Friday (fingers crossed!!!). For those wondering, I'm going to VC Martin because he's all I've got (unless I bring Lids in at the last moment).

[Mr.Craig]

You know my policy.

[Nige]

Love your work Huggy.  8)

For the sake of my Euros side:

Boak, Wines, Prestia or KJack? You know your DT/AF better than I do!

[henry]

First one for the year! I'm using a new spreadsheet that I only started setting up on Sunday (it's taken a while...) with a lot of stuff automated. The plus side is that it will save me a lot of time in future. The downside is that it hasn't been tested. Please, if you see any mistakes, let me know!

I'm hoping I'll have all the data put in by Thursday so I can post the rest of the round by Friday (fingers crossed!!!). For those wondering, I'm going to VC Martin because he's all I've got (unless I bring Lids in at the last moment).

Just a quick one, I think you've got Kade Simpson's average from 2013 rather than last year, he averaged 92 in 2014 :)

[matt1985]

Thanks Huggy, great work as always!

[LaHug]

First one for the year! I'm using a new spreadsheet that I only started setting up on Sunday (it's taken a while...) with a lot of stuff automated. The plus side is that it will save me a lot of time in future. The downside is that it hasn't been tested. Please, if you see any mistakes, let me know!

I'm hoping I'll have all the data put in by Thursday so I can post the rest of the round by Friday (fingers crossed!!!). For those wondering, I'm going to VC Martin because he's all I've got (unless I bring Lids in at the last moment).

Just a quick one, I think you've got Kade Simpson's average from 2013 rather than last year, he averaged 92 in 2014 :)

Spot on. And that was just a genuine mistake, not one from the spreadsheet ::)

[LaHug]

First one for the year! I'm using a new spreadsheet that I only started setting up on Sunday (it's taken a while...) with a lot of stuff automated. The plus side is that it will save me a lot of time in future. The downside is that it hasn't been tested. Please, if you see any mistakes, let me know!

I'm hoping I'll have all the data put in by Thursday so I can post the rest of the round by Friday (fingers crossed!!!). For those wondering, I'm going to VC Martin because he's all I've got (unless I bring Lids in at the last moment).

Just a quick one, I think you've got Kade Simpson's average from 2013 rather than last year, he averaged 92 in 2014 :)

Spot on. And that was just a genuine mistake, not one from the spreadsheet ::)

Looks like I did it with half the players. Hopefully all fixed now.

[Chelskiman]

Not loopholing this week, just not anyone worth risking it.  I have dilemmas of my own as I'm going to need to flip a coin between Rocky and Ablett.

[LaHug]

Not loopholing this week, just not anyone worth risking it.  I have dilemmas of my own as I'm going to need to flip a coin between Rocky and Ablett.

You'll know the answer soon enough. With rumours of Ablett being a prime red vest candidate though, I wouldn't even put him in my team...

[pommyadam]

Not loopholing this week, just not anyone worth risking it.  I have dilemmas of my own as I'm going to need to flip a coin between Rocky and Ablett.

You'll know the answer soon enough. With rumours of Ablett being a prime red vest candidate though, I wouldn't even put him in my team...

yet he tears up against the Dees, and generally in rd1
plus the Dees are generally leakier than the Pies

I'd back it in, but can't trust that he wouldn't be vested (like Fyfe was last year) if they have a big lead at 3qtr

edit: would you back Bellis in as a VC? (121) - points on the board is nice imo

[LaHug]

would you back Bellis in as a VC? (121) - points on the board is nice imo

New post is up. But yes, I would keep Ellis's score but nobody else's.