Opinions Needed

[petefisker]

Im in a similar boat.
Need to get Swallow and Zorko in my squad and obvioulsy am keen to do it before the price rise.
But the only way i can is by going Mitchell > Swallow and Rohan > Zorko.
Solid trades but not a fan of getting rid of Mitchell, but the only other way would be going suckling to swallow and caddy to zorko. Which still leaves me with Mitchell on the bench and Rohan dramas.

[GCSkiwi]

Im in a similar boat.
Need to get Swallow and Zorko in my squad and obvioulsy am keen to do it before the price rise.
But the only way i can is by going Mitchell > Swallow and Rohan > Zorko.
Solid trades but not a fan of getting rid of Mitchell, but the only other way would be going suckling to swallow and caddy to zorko. Which still leaves me with Mitchell on the bench and Rohan dramas.

Those seem like ok trade apart from acrificing the gain that suckling and caddy could get... But it does leave me asking if you can afford to go Suckling to Swallow and Caddy to Zorko, why didn't you start them?!?

[petefisker]

Im in a similar boat.
Need to get Swallow and Zorko in my squad and obvioulsy am keen to do it before the price rise.
But the only way i can is by going Mitchell > Swallow and Rohan > Zorko.
Solid trades but not a fan of getting rid of Mitchell, but the only other way would be going suckling to swallow and caddy to zorko. Which still leaves me with Mitchell on the bench and Rohan dramas.

Those seem like ok trade apart from acrificing the gain that suckling and caddy could get... But it does leave me asking if you can afford to go Suckling to Swallow and Caddy to Zorko, why didn't you start them?!?

Which ones?  :o Mitchel > Swallow and Rohan > Zorko?
Didn't start with them coz wasn't convined by Swallow yet and Zorko burnt most people last year. But both are playing so well and are well under priced that happy to waste a sideways trade. Didn't have the $ at teh start anyway, now i do downgrading Webster to Georgio last week.

[GCSkiwi]

No, Suckling to Swallow and Caddy to Zorko... both require more money in so you must have had that cash from the start. I can understand not being entirely convinced but I think there was only upside to Swallow + Zorko vs Suckling + Caddy!!

[petefisker]

No, Suckling to Swallow and Caddy to Zorko... both require more money in so you must have had that cash from the start. I can understand not being entirely convinced but I think there was only upside to Swallow + Zorko vs Suckling + Caddy!!

Ahhh yes yes i  see ::)
Nah don't have enough to do that, checked, thought i did. Only 148k in the bank.
And 138k is needed to go Mitchel > Swallow and Rohan > Zorko.
237k is needed for Suckling > Swallow and Caddy>Zorko  :P

Leaves me with:
MVeigh, Simpson, Swallow, Suckling, McDonald, Langdon | Langford, Georgio
Ablett, Pendles, Libba, Beams, Macrea, Tyson, Ellis, Polec | Mitchie, Dunstan
Cox, Sandy | Currie, King
Danger, Martin, Tmitch, Zorko, Caddy, Higgins | JKH, Impey.

Love all the leaders who went Reiwoldt and Chappy instead of Danger and Martin. Lucky kents.

[GCSkiwi]

Early days and I really think Riewoldt will bite some people, plus didn't the bombers say they're only looking to get 16 games from Chappy? He'll be rested...

I don't think Mitchell to Swallow is enough upside to be worth the trade. Short term yes but until he's confirmed out for a long period hang onto Mitchell. Rohan to Zorko would be amazing but need more cash. I seriously reckon you can hold with your current team, it's early days at the moment so don't panic on Swallow and Zorko, if you had LTI's to ditch then sure but I think not needing to use trades is a win for you at the moment

[ronl]

Bomber was a big rap for Ambrose on AFL 360 last night.  Sure to keep getting games.  My trades this week are Rohan to Ambrose and Gunston to Zorko.  The latest on Mitchell is that he is 50/50.  I'm holding on to Pav, conditions haven't suited him, dropped four or five fairly easy marks last week that could have easily have become goals, and suddenly he has scored 120.  He'll come good once he has a boost of confidence, I'm sure.

[bowyanger]

In the interest of full disclosure: I'm a relatively beginner coach but I'm a half decent mathematician so I like to think I picked this up pretty quickly. Got hammered in my office league in my first year in Oz, then took it out the next 2 years, finishing with respectable but not amazing overall results. After all, this is not a game of sports, it's a game of economics and risk.

Nah.

Where did you finish overall?

This is a game of sports as much as it is luck

By definition "economics" is a very broad term...

Having done ok in national maths competiitions for a few years (top 5%) ... and having played this game for about 8 years... IMO mathematics is not a factor really.

There are goons around here that think they can put a $$ amount to a trade but its virtually impossible unless you know the full formulae Champion Data has for point allocation...which there isnt anything consistant to base calculations on.

Sure, some skilled mathematics application will help get you inside the 10K overall

There are just far too many variables that affect a players Champion Data potential...the main one being his coach - which no one knows what goes on inside their head.

Luck is just under 50%...your starting team is just under 50%...from there its a game of sports with your trades (knowing who is going to score well)

Of course your selections of downgrades are influenced by the best possible $$ increase....$$ increase = PPG increase generally but if you have done your research you will see it is definately not the case where the most valuable $$ teams score the best

Trust me, if it were this simple, me and the 3 other people I know of worthy mathematics nouse would have been able to share 50K by now...or at least get in the top 100 at seasons end....but no.

Great post...but lots of variables in there

Your really over analysing things ...like I used to two seasons ago...wont make any difference really...waste of time IMO

"Flip a coin" should become your main reasoning for a close trade that has no standout difference...because thats what the game is....50% luck no matter what you do

I actually know some pro punters that have developed their own programmes (through record keeping and predictions) for horse racing over the last 25 years that have contacted me and a few others with ideas of how to win the 50K...after hours of discussion and ideas it still comes back to one main factor...luck

[GCSkiwi]

Yeah fair enough bow. Last year I slipped back a bit, don't remember my exact rank but was just outside top 10k - I wanna say 10,018 but that could be a total lie. Year before I was top 2k.

I say it's not a sports game because theirs plenty of roles that can be played exceptionally well but SC will not reflect this. Crowley is a great example, probably one of the best if not the best tagger in the game, but SC scores are relatively shower. So the economics part is associating value to a players potential. Which yes is in a lot of ways not able to be determined and heavily influenced by luck. But that's not to say some analysis (potentially over-analysis) will not make you luckier ;) I meant it to be a bit tongue in cheek, in the sense that I know very little about AFL from a game perspective (I know how the game works, but I wouldn't be able to name more than a quarter of players by sight and I know nothing about the history of clubs/player lineages) yet I could work out the game well enough to beat people who'd played it for years. Because it is a numbers game. Buy a guy who scores relatively big numbers for a relatively small number and you're off to a good start. That's more what I meant.

I guess this statement is the thing I find interesting from a more seasoned coach:
""Flip a coin" should become your main reasoning for a close trade that has no standout difference...because thats what the game is....50% luck no matter what you do"
Surely if there is no dtandout difference then the answer is don't trade, not flip a coin?? No difference so keep your current option - that's the situation I see with Thmoas vs Michie. People thinking about the 3 game future rather than slightly longer term... when you (collective you) got Michie at the start, your plan I'm willing to be was keep him through byes and trade in a round 8/9 premo for him in round 10. What about that has changed?? There is no need to bring in Thomas...