Pandles + Murphy or Watson + Cotchin

Bully · February 24, 2014, 09:35:52 PM

Quote from: colmullet on February 24, 2014, 09:26:32 PM
even if he does get beaten in round 1 that score only stays in his rolling average for 1 round.....and you wont be bringing him in round 4.....so its irrelevant

He also plays Richmond in round four who kept him to 105 last year, and Essendon in round 7 who also kept him to 105 the last time they met. He's a gun but he's got his work cut out to maintain his value.

_wato · February 24, 2014, 09:42:00 PM

Doc, as I said Beams has cut his fantasy scoring by a fair total when he's been in the team and I just ran a check and the same 7 teams in 2012, Pendlebury only averaged 117 against them. He's improved by then so give or take a few and you have your average of 120-125.

Cotchin had a lean year and was subbed off in games you've used in that tally. I'd read nothing into it.

You may be swayed by the extra 10 points but that can be counter affected when you waste a trade upgrading Murphy who is at an awkward price.. He should potentially be a keeper at that price - $500k
Add in the fact he can't handle a tag and i'd be completely frustrated. Good luck copping a few 90's when Cotchin and Watson are pumping out consistent 115+

Grufflez · February 24, 2014, 09:44:58 PM

Way i see things playing out...

Watson 115-120 Cotchin 115-120

Pendles 120-125 Murphy 105-110

Mate its a 50/50 and as Wato said id be sticking the captains hat on Ablett before Pendles from R1-R8

so id go Watson/Cotchin but only just...pick whichever combo best suits your bye structure.

AHH yes you must also take into account as mentioned above...Murphy may not become a 110+ keeper which would burn a trade.

On a side note..WILL I EVER BE MORE THAN A JUST A LONELY OL' PROPERTY STEWARD!!!...no1 respects a property steward
Just got promoted to a Witches Hat Wrangler!,my kids will be so proud...
:'( :'( :'(

tor01doc · February 24, 2014, 09:56:39 PM

Quote from: _wato on February 24, 2014, 09:42:00 PM
Doc, as I said Beams has cut his fantasy scoring by a fair total when he's been in the team and I just ran a check and the same 7 teams in 2012, Pendlebury only averaged 117 against them. He's improved by then so give or take a few and you have your average of 120-125.

Cotchin had a lean year and was subbed off in games you've used in that tally. I'd read nothing into it.

You may be swayed by the extra 10 points but that can be counter affected when you waste a trade upgrading Murphy who is at an awkward price.. He should potentially be a keeper at that price - $500k
Add in the fact he can't handle a tag and i'd be completely frustrated. Good luck copping a few 90's when Cotchin and Watson are pumping out consistent 115+

I get him averaging 119.888888 in 2012 against these teams - including a most unPendleslike 62 against Carrazzo.

_wato · February 24, 2014, 10:02:24 PM

Quote from: tor01doc on February 24, 2014, 09:56:39 PM
I get him averaging 119.888888 in 2012 against these teams - including a most unPendleslike 62 against Carrazzo.

Sorry mate, I was in a rush and didn't bother with calculations. Was that including finals?
He has to play Carlton in the first seven rounds also, so one to look out for. Carrazzo may be fit by then.

Any responses to my other points, Doc?

_wato · February 24, 2014, 10:03:17 PM

Yeah I agree with you Grufflez. Watson and Cotchin, just.

H1bb3i2d · February 24, 2014, 10:21:48 PM

We're splitting hairs over which combo... It could quite easily go either way
BUT
Murphy won't be a top 10 MID by year's end, Watson almost certainly will and Cotchin could well be too, so Murphy will most likely need to be traded to a top-ender, or have a mediocre M8 come the pointy end of the season.

MC · February 24, 2014, 10:22:53 PM

I believe this argument will go round in circles. Let's be honest, Murph is a pretty safe bet to average around 100. He had a very bad year last year, but prior to that went 110 for what? 5 years straight? Yes he struggles with the tag but Carlton and Murphy himself are surely working on that. I see Carlton moving up the ladder this year (as much as it pains me to say) so it is reasonable to expect a price rise at the very minimum. Best case scenario he returns to 110+ and becomes a keeper. Worst case he still probably averages around 100 and we can offload him later.

In saying that, I am personally not going near Murphy, will be rolling the dice with Daisy instead. In my team currently I have Pendles, Watson and Cotchin though from these 4. Without Ablett it is sacrilege to not have Pendles.

The reason I chose the Pendles/Murphy combo is that every team looks better with Pendles in it. He is likely to be the top SC average, and could hit 135 this year. Ablett imo will go 125, Watson 120 and Cotchin 115. The reason I have Cotch at 115 is because Lids has improvement in him also, as well as Ellis among other and I can't see where the points will all come from. Watson 120 in a true top 8 Essendon side should be comfortable.

Sabretooth Tigers · February 24, 2014, 10:39:34 PM

:)

Reckon I'm with Wato and H1. Watson and Cotchin to be top 8 mids hence 1 trade minimum saved. Pendles is a champion and will come in for Rd.9 unless he kills it early in which case to hell with the byes. ::)

Dudge · February 24, 2014, 10:41:18 PM

Quote from: Grufflez on February 24, 2014, 09:44:58 PM
Way i see things playing out...

Watson 115-120 Cotchin 115-120

Pendles 120-125 Murphy 105-110

Mate its a 50/50 and as Wato said id be sticking the captains hat on Ablett before Pendles from R1-R8

so id go Watson/Cotchin but only just...pick whichever combo best suits your bye structure.

AHH yes you must also take into account as mentioned above...Murphy may not become a 110+ keeper which would burn a trade.

On a side note..WILL I EVER BE MORE THAN A JUST A LONELY OL' PROPERTY STEWARD!!!...no1 respects a property steward

:'( :'( :'(

I respect a property steward Gruff

I also believe it's splitting hairs. Surely all the stats everyone throwing out, won't be "exactly" the same as previous years. There's not much in the " stats " anyway. Just pick who fits your team structure, byes included, and cross your fingers

DaveElNacho · February 25, 2014, 02:48:14 PM

I went with Watson + Cotchin purely because of Murphy. Just don't know if he can handle the tag. Cotchin had a "bad year" and still average 106 last year. Locked him in as soon as I saw him tear Macaffer to shreds the other day.

And Watson was dealing with the Asada stuff last year and still averaged 111. Can only improve on that. 115+ for both I say.

Though it hurts not having Pendles... :'(

Ricochet · February 25, 2014, 03:04:13 PM

Murphy will go 110+ easily and Pendles is Pendles..
The other two are great value but hard to go past Pendles + Murphy based on points

Pokerface · February 25, 2014, 03:27:37 PM

How is everyone in this thread putting Murphy 105+?? What we saw last year against tags he won't get near 100 - especially early without Judd.
With Dusty slated for more half-back work, I think its likely Cotch will have more of that supercoach friendly forward-mid work that Gaz does so well (yes, I know its only one nab match, but who else would do it if Dusty is back?)
Of these two options, Cotch + Jobe, although I'd be wary of doing it at the expense of Pendles.

Ricochet · February 25, 2014, 03:40:01 PM

Quote from: Pokerface on February 25, 2014, 03:27:37 PM
How is everyone in this thread putting Murphy 105+?? What we saw last year against tags he won't get near 100 - especially early without Judd.
With Dusty slated for more half-back work, I think its likely Cotch will have more of that supercoach friendly forward-mid work that Gaz does so well (yes, I know its only one nab match, but who else would do it if Dusty is back?)
Of these two options, Cotch + Jobe, although I'd be wary of doing it at the expense of Pendles.

It was injuries and an unsettled Carlton team that affected his output, not tags. He actually handled tags pretty well considering