How many right priced players are there ??? I'll give two, any special bargains?

Started by Sabretooth Tigers, December 28, 2012, 11:48:49 PM

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Capper


Footyrulz

Quote from: Presto on December 29, 2012, 12:22:37 PM
Quote from: Footyrulz on December 29, 2012, 09:42:07 AM
I actually think this head is very relevant but maybe should be looked at in different way.

If they finished off the previous season really well (eg. beams and Stanton in 2011), they a quite likely to continue that form the next year.

A better way to analyse it might be to just look at averages, but I guess it's the same thing!

I'm strongly considering dangerfield, beams, mundy, duffield and Gibbs. I think they have a good chance of continuing their form from late 2012 and therefore they are underpriced.
+1

Compare the average of the last few games in 2012 with the average they are priced at:
For example:
Mundy priced at 477100 when his ave for the last 6 games was 115.2, which should have priced him at 616,000
Hawkins (508,800) 122.4 and 654,900
Duffield (496,700) 118.7 and 635,100
In short (as Footyrulz said) players that average more in the last few games than during the season
Here is a full list of premium players that improved their ave by at least 5:
Player                  Ave 2012    last 6 games
Mundy, David             89.2        115.17
Hawkins, Tom             95.1   122.40  (last 5 games
Sandilands, Aaron   112.6   144.67  (last 3 games
Duffield, Paul             92.8   118.67
Giles, Jonathan             93.3   115.33
Dangerfield, Patrick   118.9   142.67
Gibbs, Bryce             95.3   113.83
Beams, Dayne            122.9   143.00
O'Keefe, Ryan           103.8   120.50
Harvey, Brent             95.5   110.50
Grimes, Jack             88.3   101.50
McLean, Brock           106.3   121.33
Pavlich, Matthew           111           126.50
Waite, Jarrad             97.2   110.60 (last 5 games
Redden, Jack           102.8   116.33
Hale, David                     95.6   107.83
Johnson, Steve             96.6   108.20 (last 5 games
Naitanui, Nic           114.2   127.33
Thompson, Scott D.     87.8   97.83
Murphy, Marc           112.7   124.83
Goldstein, Todd             93.1   102.40 (last 5 games
Cotchin, Trent           116.3   127.50
Ablett jnr, Gary           138.4   149.50
Griffen, Ryan           106.1   113.67
Goddard, Brendon   101.2   108.00
Sewell, Brad           101.4   108.17
Riewoldt, Jack             90.8   96.67
Maric, Ivan                   113.4   120.50
Tuck, Shane           114.6   121.33
Nice work there, thanks ill be using that list!

Okeefe averaged so well at the end of season! i traded him in in round 23 for Pavlich and he scores 60...

Beams always seems to finish seasons off brilliantly so he might be a good upgrade target, or he might keep it up like he did in 2012. I actually had him in my 2012 pre season starting team and was confident about getting him, but then he got injured!!!


Torress

there are so many variables here. key players might be getting rested late in season and players getting more piece of the pie late in the year...., or senior players 'put on ice' for last few games..

it could indicate a players ability to run out the season - eg redden imo

interesting to look at, could also indicate potential role changes as coaches try out new things late in season?? but i don't think this is the type of stats i'd be paying close attention to, good to know tho!!!


bottlemart

A players starting price is determined by that players previous seasons average score. 

Not the previous seasons finishing price.  That price is irrelevent.

Sabretooth Tigers

How they finished off a season is not irrelevent and never will be !!!  Finishing form is good form and could be an indication of a player about ready to have a break out season coming up. Who the competition is in those games can be relevant, but aren't we after information that can give us ab edge in the coming season father than look for players who will merely obtain this seasons average again. Cheers.