MTTY's DT Team Selection Thread

[MTTY]

I am also running a similar thread in SC

In this thread I will be listing both team updates and rules that will shape how I select my starting team

Current Selection Rules

Rule #1: Wishlist - Define a clear list of who you think will be the best averaging players for the year in each position e.g. 6 for backs and forwards, 8 for mids and 2 for rucks

Rule #2: Don't Pick Inbetweeners - There should be three reasons why a player should be in your starting team:

#1 - They are in your predicted top averaging players for a position by years end (Refer to Rule #1)

#2 - They are a cash cow and are simply there to make you money, before being upgraded or downgraded. They should only finish in your team if they are within the top averaging players for that position, as they are usually rookie priced

#3 - They are UVP's (Under Valued Players) and therefore will link to #2 of this section in being a cash cow, however these players could end up in your final team as UVP's are seen as those who are capable of breaking out or re-breaking out (after missing games last year and receiving a discount, playing below what they CAN avergae in the previous year and therefore start at a lower price then what they are worth or a player that has been on the rise in average and may become a premium/super premium). Therefore they make you both cash (if they are not within the top averaging players) or they become a hidden gem that will give you an extra trade on opposing teams, as other teams will need to trade them in if they are indeed the real deal.

Therefore you should base your team around either Super Premiums/Premiums, UVP's and Rookies

Rule #3: Loopholes and DPP Benefits - For this next rule we can thank the new rolling lockout rule that has been added to DT. The rule is to pick at least 1 non playing rookie that has DPP. Why pick a player you know will not play? This is to take advantage of the Captaincy and EMERGENCY loopholes, more so the emergency one.

The way it works is:

Captaincy Loophole:

You start by selecting a player, who plays an earlier game (say Friday), as VC. You also start a non playing player, whose team plays later in the round (say Sunday), and place the C on him. Lets say you have three players (Franklin, Ablett and B.Speight) now when the teams are released say Franklin and Ablett are both named, however Speight is not, then the captaincy loophole can come into effect.

e.g. Hawks V Collinwoog - Friday
      Gold Coast V GWS - Saturday
      Geelong V North - Sunday

1. Place Gary Ablett on your midfield bench (With the E) for Ben Speight, and give him the C
2. Give Lance Franklin the VC
3.
3.1. If Franklin scores very well, say 140, then leave things as they are
3.2. If Franklin scores low, say 90, then, before the GC game, place Ablett on field for Speight and give him the C

The reason the DPP is so beneficial would be if you were to do the opposite

e.g. Ablett as VC and Franklin on the bench (Of course Gold Coast and Hawks would have to switch spots in the fixture)

Gold Coast V Collingwood - Friday
Hawthorn V GWS - Saturday
Geelong V North - Sunday

1. Place Lance Franklin on the bench (with the E)
2. Give Ablett the VC and Speight the C
3. Shift Speight to the forwardline field for a forward DPP (Say Varcoe) (This is where DPP non playing rookies come in handy)
3.1. If Ablett scores well then leave as is
3.2. If Ablett scores poor then bring Franklin onto the field, before the Hawks game, and give him the C


Emergency Loophole:

This basically works in the same way as the Captaincy Loophole, as insurance. It works particularly well with inconsistant players/rookies.

Say you have three players B.Speight (In the Forwardline), Jake Stringer and Jack Riewoldt (Who is always on and off usually depending on goals kicked). With Riewoldt and Stinger named in their teams and Speight not named.

Richmond V Hawthorn - Friday
Western Bulldogs V Collingwood - Saturday
North V West Coast - Sunday

1. Place Jack Riewoldt on the bench with the E
2. Place Stringer on the bench
3. Place Speight on the field
4.
4.1. If Jack Riewoldt scores highly, then leave things how they are
4.2. If Jack Riewoldt scores low, then switch Speight with Stringer

The reason that DPP non playing rookies are handy is:

Say you have three players Speight (Forwardline), Kane Mitchell and Jack Viney. Speight is not named, while Mitchell and Viney are.

Port V Adelaide - Friday
Melbourne V GWS - Saturday
North V Fremantle - Sunday

1. Place Kane Mitchell on the bench with the E
2. Place Jack Viney the bench
3. Switch Speight with a midfield F/C DPP (Say Varcoe), and place on field
4.
4.1. If Kane Mitchell scores well, then leave as is
4.2. If Kane Mitchell scores low, then switch Viney with Speight

So in conclusion a DPP non playing rookie is much more beneficial then a non DPP non playing rookie, as it effective allows the loopholes for two positions, thus you have less non playing players which makes the risk even less.


Rule #4: As Close As You Can - Get as close to a completed team as you can in your initial team selection. The reason this rule must be stated (which links to other rules) is that so many DTer's (including myself) make selections on players that (a) Will not finish in their end of year team e.g. will not be one of the top players in that position, (b) Have no value in picking them like a UVP does (See Rule #2) or (c) Are not Rookies. While UVP's may be seen as against this rule, the reason UVP's are picked is based on the fact that they are worth the trade as you have either gained money or one of the top premiums that no-one else has. While if you were to pick an overpriced player that will not finish in the top averaging players for that position, you will not gain cash and thus waste a trade.

Rule #5: DPP Stocking - Have a F/C and B/C DPP rookie in your midfield. Thanks to the extra midfield spots this year, it allows us to take advantage of being able to use two spots purely for DPP switching of either line, thus allowing us extra cover.

I would also advise a subset of this Rule, as Rule # 5.1. Pick a B/C rookie in defence and a F/C rookie in your forwardline, the reason i suggest this is on the basis of how form can work. Say you start with the following players Nick Vlastuin (Defence), Brett Goodes (Midfield), Sam Mayes (Midfield), Ben Kennedy (Forward), and assume all are named and play for an extended period from Round 1 onwards. Given that most of us will have 3-4 starting rookie on our midfield to begin with, if Goodes and/or Mayes were underperforming and not worthy of a midfield spot but Vlastuin and/or Kennedy were worthy then it allows us to do a simple switch with no loss between strength of our other lines and lack of DPP. (This can also work vice versa e.g. Mayes and/or Vlastuin are not worthy or starting spot in Defence and Forwards but Goodes and/or Mayes are)

Why not just not worry about a DPP rookie in Defence and Forwardlines and have Goddard, Gibbs, Thomas and Rockliff etc? Well if say we only had Goodes and Mayes (in midfield) who were both underperforming then we switched Goddard and Rockliff to the midfield then all of a sudden we will be starting two less midfield rookies (who are likely to score better than defence and forward rookies) thanks to Goddard and Rockiliff but instead having to play an extra forward and back rookie in Goddard and Rockliff's place which could end in lower scores, an imbalanced structure in all of the lines and letting two higher scoring rookies waste away on the bench. While it would work well if your backline/forwardline bench rookies were out performing your on field midfield rookies, would it not be beneficial to have the extra option mentioned in the opening paragraph of Rule #5.1? Yes it would and given the extra midfield spots this year its so much easier to do so.

Rule #6: Captains Galore - Pick two permanent Captain options. By applying this rule to your team, given the captaincy loophole (Refer to Rule #3), you effectively get a shot at two options that every DTer will be deciding between to make their captain for the week. The more Captaincy options, the better as in some cases, when both teams are playing each other (e.g. Ablett and Swan, GCS V Collingwood), you will have to make the decision between the two on the spot but still have the loophole trick handy, which is why a third super captaincy option is good to have. However note that it is even better to have the Captaincy options all playing in different teams as it allows you to truly take advantage of the Captaincy loophole. One of the three are bound to be playing at another time to the others (with the exception of (a) games that will start while another game is finishing, but you could still make an educated guess based on a score at that time in the game ,or (b) The Bye rounds)

Rule #7 - Haggling - Don't overpay! There's just some players that you have to weigh up selecting at the start, who cost the top dollars. The risk to this is that you may miss out a huge scores along the way while waiting for a drop in price, if you think that getting these scores are more important than waiting to save some cash then by all means select that player in your initial squad. However this creates the fine line between starting with the players in your predicted top 6-8-2-6 (See Rule #1) and therefore getting closer to your ideal finished team (See Rule #4) and picking them later on in the season at the right time (either when they begin to score at their highest or have just finished their run of poor form (price drop))

The obvious exceptions to this rule is picking your permanent Captains (See Rule #6).

In the end this leads on to the fact that if you have overpaid and your player hits a run of bad form, thus resulting in you trading him out (which a lot of participants will do with the extra trades) only for him to be one of the top averages in his position then you have effectively overpaid and wasted a trade. Therefore my advice is to pick up the value players that you see being in the top averaging players (See Rule #1, again)

Rule #8 - Byes V End Product & The Art of Loaning - A lot of DTer's have focused on the question of Players V Byes, whether or not to pick a player due to their BYE round or just picking a player without considering it.

I like to focus on Byes V End Product, which works in with most of my rules. While I see the ideal structure to handle the byes as 10/10/10 and the fact that i think those who plan and go well in the bye rounds will be the ones who are competing for the overall prize, I will not let it hinder the way I construct my team. While it will not effect my initial team (very much) it may play a role in my trading, given that we have extra trades.

I have mentioned in this thread that I will be making selections based on one of three categories of players (See Rule #2), as I do not want players that will (a) be outside of the top averaging players for their position, (b) Will not make me cash or (c) are not capable of making cash, while becoming a breakout player into the top averaging players for their position.

However I do believe that trades will be valuable for six things:

1. Upgrading rookies

2. Downgrading rookies

3. Sideways trading a UVP to one of my predicted top players for their position

4. Trading a UVP that has become a mistake

5. Trading to a player that will clearly be in the top averaging players

Those first five rules however have nothing to do with byes, but rule 6 does

6. Thanks to the extra trades I have been able to come up with this plan. Loan players - While no rule has been specifically developed in DT to loan trade a player into your teams for the bye rounds, I have decided to use my own method to make one using my extra trades. My starting team SHOULD have the basis of a good bye structure (along the lines of 10/10/10, 11/9/10, 12/9/9, 8/12/10 etc.), given that I would be around this number it allows me to (before the byes) swap one of my bye clashing players and LOAN in one that suits my bye with similar value and scoring potential, and then switching back after the byes. Ideally i'd only like to have three LOANED players in my team for the year (6 trades) but i may have to increase that depending on structure and trades at the time.

The obvious flaw in the Loan plan is that either the loan player will decrease too much in value or the traded player will increase too much to afford to switch the two back, however i am willing to risk that and as I said I will make an educated guess based on form, price and scoring potential.

Rule #9 - No Guts No Glory - Don't let others talk you out of picking a UVP player. Note this only applies to UVP and not every other player, as it is very wise to go against Inbetween Players (See Rule #2). Every year there are players that are seen as UVP's and every year some pick them and others don't. This can be based on a number of reasons both logical and illogical but a lot of the time it can result from others feedback on your Strange selection. While RMT (Rate My Team) threads are very helpful and handy with all the advice given, I encourage you to pick out the good advice and leave the rest. Go with your gut and pick the UVP that interests you, after all you could be one of the ones that ends up not having to waste trades and extra cash on players like Dangerfield or Beams next season.

Current Predicted Best Averaging Players for Each Position 2013 (Linked to Rule #1)

Backs (In no particular order)

1. Jack Grimes
2. Bryce Gibbs
3. Brendon Goddard
4. Greg Broughton
5. Beau Waters
6. Dyson Heppell

Mids

1. Dane Swan
2. Gary Ablett Jnr
3. Marc Murphy
4. Scott Pendlebury
5. Jobe Watson
6. Matthew Boyd
7. Trent Cotchin
8. Michael Barlow*

Rucks

1. Ivan Maric
2. Aaron Sandilands

Forwards

1. Dayne Zorko
2. Tom Rockliff
3. Dale Thomas
4. Lance Franklin
5. Steve Johnson
6. Dean Cox

KEY:

* - A player that may be a surprise in my list but has the scoring ability to be there
() - Next player in line as players like Naitanui and Cox could be in either line in your finished team


My Current List of UVP's (Linked to Rule #2)

Backs:

- Heath Shaw
- Greg Broughton
- Brian Lake
- Sam Fisher
- Sam Butler
- Michael Hibberd
- Jarrod Harbrow
- Chris Yarran
- Christian Howard
- Cameron Pedersen
- Nathan Bock
- Luke Brown
- Jasper Pittard
- Brent Staker

Mids:

- Marc Murphy
- Toby Greene
- Michael Barlow
- Matt Priddis
- Nick Dal Santo
- Sam Gibson
- Rory Sloane
- Chris Judd
- Nathan Fyfe
- David Mundy
- Andrew Gaff
- Travis Boak
- Mitch Wallis
- Liam Shiels
- Luke Hodge
- Joel Corey
- Jack Trengove
- Luke Ball
- Michael Rischitelli
- Brent Moloney
- Andrew Embley
- Koby Stevens
- Michael Evans

Rucks:

- Shane Mumford
- Hamish McIntosh
- Tom Bellchambers
- Todd Goldstein
- Matthew Kruezer
- Matthew Leuenberger
- Daniel Gorringe
- Max Gawn
- Daniel Currie

Forwards:

- Tom Rockliff
- Dayne Zorko
- Dale Thomas
- Adam Goodes
- Sharrod Wellingham
- Greg Broughton
- Colin Sylvia
- Leigh Adams
- Travis Cloke
- Mark LeCras
- Nathan Bock
- Robbie Gray
- Josh J Kennedy
- Chris Knights
- Travis Varcoe
- Brent Macaffer
- Brent Staker

Current Team

DEF: B. Goddard, J. Grimes, B. Gibbs, G. Broughton, N. Wright, L. Brown (L. Osborne, B. Goodes)

MID: D. Swan, M. Murphy, G. Ablett jnr, M. Barlow, D. Mundy, S. Colquhoun, K. Mitchell, J. O'Meara (B. Speight, J. Viney)

RUC: T. Goldstein, M. Leuenberger (M. Gawn, S. Rowe)

FWD: D. Cox, S. Johnson, D. Zorko, T. Rockliff, T. Varcoe, B. Staker (T. Lee, B. Kennedy)

CASH LEFT: $24,300

[MTTY]

Current Team: 21/12/2012

DEF: B. Goddard, J. Grimes, B. Gibbs, G. Broughton, N. Wright, L. Brown (L. Osborne, B. Goodes)

MID: D. Swan, M. Murphy, G. Ablett jnr, M. Barlow, D. Mundy, S. Colquhoun, K. Mitchell, J. O'Meara (B. Speight, J. Viney)

RUC: T. Goldstein, M. Leuenberger (M. Gawn, S. Rowe)

FWD: D. Cox, S. Johnson, D. Zorko, T. Rockliff, T. Varcoe, B. Staker (T. Lee, B. Kennedy)

CASH LEFT: $24,300

[Capper]

Nice team, One thing i nwould suggest is Speight out for someone who has F/M DPP. That will help your team out with movement

[MTTY]

Nice team, One thing i nwould suggest is Speight out for someone who has F/M DPP. That will help your team out with movement

Speight is a C/F DPP though Tabs.  ???