Evaluating Trades

[rider]

Do you evauate your trades properly, at first thought its easy to think oh i made the wrong trade, but when you really look at it maybe not.

So I was tossing up between Heppel and Beams coming into my side on Friday, I ended up going for Heppel. This morning i was trying to evaluate my trade as i was a bit disappointment from a points perspective that Heppel let me down, but when i looked at it in detail probably was the better trade.

Kennedy up $2,900 Beams 122pts up $23,200 Ellis 6pts down $19,300 Heppell 61pts up $7,400

Ellis>Heppel = made $6,400 (+19300 +7400 +2900 -23200)
Kennedy>Beams = loss $5,600 (-2900 + 23200 -19300 -7400)

From a points perspective i would have played Ellis and Beams vs Heppel and Treloar 95 pts (Kennedy rode the pine)
Heppel = 28 point gain over playing beams

Not so unphappy with my decision now. I only write this as i thought others may find it interesting to evaluate their trades more closely. If my logic is wrong please let me know... :-[

[Bombers Suck]

nice analysis there

[SB-67]

nice analysis there

+1

[deekay]

nice analysis there

+1

Nice one, good way to look at trades.

[glam77]

there are major faults in this anlysis becasue the BE and $ change in one week is dependant on the previous 2 weeks.

...and someones low BE is likely the reason you actually got him in (ie heppell), whereas over a 3 week period you may have been better going the other option.

Not saying you made the wrong decision, just saying that you method above is not a great analysis.


I compare your premature claim of victory to trying to cash in your winning ticket based on the running order at the 20m mark of the bay sheffield... where the backmarker started from scratch, but your man is still winning at the 20m mark.

[HappyDEZ]

I think it is an interesting & positive way to look at a trade that didn't quite go to plan in the first week. B/E's aside (Ellis B/E is listed as 98 for round 8 by the way, which is a bonus for you), Heppell & Beams both look strong chances to finish in the top 7 BACs & FWDs so either trade should be sound in the long run.

[bowyanger]

there are major faults in this anlysis becasue the BE and $ change in one week is dependant on the previous 2 weeks.

...and someones low BE is likely the reason you actually got him in (ie heppell), whereas over a 3 week period you may have been better going the other option.

Not saying you made the wrong decision, just saying that you method above is not a great analysis.


I compare your premature claim of victory to trying to cash in your winning ticket based on the running order at the 20m mark of the bay sheffield... where the backmarker started from scratch, but your man is still winning at the 20m mark.

An example of why people bag adelaide and its inhabitants right there

[Cayenne]

I was looking to get heppel in for Ellis end of last week as well, but fell $200 short. I was disappointed at the time, but decided to look at the bright side about it saving me a trade for now.

Keeping Ellis on the field did hurt, but the positive was the heppel also did poorly.

Captain Hindsight is now screaming at me for not noticing Shaw's lowish BE and affordable price, which is a trade that would have had me looking toward 2450+ this week and possibly top 50 overall.

[rider]

there are major faults in this anlysis becasue the BE and $ change in one week is dependant on the previous 2 weeks.

...and someones low BE is likely the reason you actually got him in (ie heppell), whereas over a 3 week period you may have been better going the other option.

Not saying you made the wrong decision, just saying that you method above is not a great analysis.


I compare your premature claim of victory to trying to cash in your winning ticket based on the running order at the 20m mark of the bay sheffield... where the backmarker started from scratch, but your man is still winning at the 20m mark.

I should have clarified, I am bringing in beams this week for kennedy, and it was either heppel last week beams this week or beams last week heppel this week. I still think that i am winning not sure whether or not you will.

[The_Captain]

want to being in beams this week myself.. he is killing it!!!

[glam77]

there are major faults in this anlysis becasue the BE and $ change in one week is dependant on the previous 2 weeks.

...and someones low BE is likely the reason you actually got him in (ie heppell), whereas over a 3 week period you may have been better going the other option.

Not saying you made the wrong decision, just saying that you method above is not a great analysis.


I compare your premature claim of victory to trying to cash in your winning ticket based on the running order at the 20m mark of the bay sheffield... where the backmarker started from scratch, but your man is still winning at the 20m mark.

An example of why people bag adelaide and its inhabitants right there

so you are saying that you evaluate the success of a trade based on the first week? congratulations... everyone of your trades must be a roaring success. Those master strokes of traing out Fyfe and Goodes were visionary.