GAJ - a new view

[tom_scully]

For those still debating Ablett in your team. Here are the stats for every brownlow winner and their post brownlow year in SC points (eg cooney 106 avg in his brownlow year and 91 the year after):

Cooney 106 - 91
Bartel  125 â€" 115
Goodes 120 â€" 104
Cousins 124 -106

As you can see the average drop off is about 14 points, probably enough to warrant not having him early, but not leaving him out too long. It is human nature to drop intensity after reaching the pinnacle.

[fryzie]

I did think about this however if he does drop 14 points off his average he will likely still be the highest averaging midfielder in the comp, not worth the risk not having him on the off chance he maintains or God forbid increases his average.

You'll forever kick yourself if he happens to buck the Brownlow trend and go 140 - 145, I know you say it's human nature to drop intensity after reaching your pinnacle, but the pinnacle may last another year, Ablett Sr. was the Coleman medallist for 3 seasons in a row  ;)

However I'm still seriously considering not having him in 2010. Much harder decision this year than the last few seasons though.

[toodledock]

one bad game and he loses like 100k or smething right?

[Blueboys]

If you think he will drop 100k in one game your joking!

Even if a score drop of say 14 points if you add that to Captain your still way ahead....

[tom_scully]

The average over the season is 14, so they still have a good season, but usually with a couple of early shockers.

[Heater]

I say leave him out of your side at your own peril!  The guy is a gun and has repeatedly shaken off taggers and the like to be the best fantasy player for years.  I reckon Geelong won't take the foot from the pedal in 2010 as the desire and drive appears to be still there and I cannot see GAJ backing off from his usual workrate.