Jumping the Gun

[Ricochet]

Starting to see a lot of rookie trading threads pop up.
Boys are we jumping the gun with all these rookie trade plans just to get a premium in quicker and make our side look better short term?

I was the same. I had a shocking week in DT (1889) and was searching through a few of my rookies to upgrade / downgrade.

But looking at their BE's and projected price increases over the next few weeks, i think we might be a little early in our upgrades.

D.Shiel is currently on $227k and scored 81 on the wkend. His BE is -3. If he scores 63 this week he will jump $26k and is projected to jump another $17k. Personally i think his average will lift above 70 over the next 3 weeks, but atm he is projected to make an additional $44,600 if you keep him for another 2 weeks.

J.Magner is currently on $235k and scored 86 on the wkend. His BE is 0. He is projected to score 81 this week and if he does, his price will jump $32k and is projected to increase another $31k and $19k the following weeks. His average should stay around the same at 80 over the next 3 weeks. He is projected to make an additional $83,300 if you keep him for another 3 weeks.

S.Coniglio is priced at $222k and scored an injury affected (concussion) 46 on the wkend...he was on track for 80odd. His BE is 23. He is projected to score 58 this week but i expect a tad more. If he does hit 58 tho, his price will jump $14k and is projected to increase another $4k and $6k the following weeks. He is projected to only make an additional $25,300 if you keep him for another 3 weeks. BUT due to his injury interrupted game and scoring of the last few weeks, I think, like Shiel, he can lift his average to 70 and should make you an extra $40,000 over the next few weeks.

T.Greene is priced at $252k and scored a 90 on the wkend. His BE is 17. He is projected to score 88 this week and should get around the 80odd. If he does hit 88 his price will shoot up another $29k and is projected to increase $35k and $23k the following weeks. He is projected to make an additional $87,600 if you keep him for another 3 weeks.

C.Smith is priced at $149k. He didn't play on the wkend but we should see a lot more of this kid. His BE is 0. When he plays he is projected to score 58. If he gets it his price will shoot up another $23k and is projected to increase $19k and $19k the following weeks. He is projected to make an additional $62,700 if you keep him for another 3 weeks and he plays.

D.Smith is priced at $240k and scored a sub affected 39 on the wkend. His BE is 52 and current average is 65. He is projected to score only 66 this week and but i think he should get 70+. If he does hit 66 over the next 3 weeks tho, his price will jump $5k and is projected to increase $5k and $13k the following weeks. He is projected to make an additional $24,900 if you keep him for another 3 weeks.BUT due to his last score being sub affected, i think he can make more.


I really don't think the rookies have topped out yet. We have given them only (in most cases) 3 price rises and they probably have some decent cash to bring in over the next couple of weeks. This will bridge the gap between Premiums and Rooks making it easier to upgrade.

And if your afraid you'll miss the boat with some rookies on the bubble, there are still some great rookies to come in Horsley, Adams, Miles and Wilkes who have played one game and many other guns that haven't even played yet.

Additionally, with there are a few gun Premiums expected to drop in price over the next couple of weeks
S.Mitchell (BE 141): -20k and -21k
Goddard (BE 154): -22k and -15k
Buddy (BE 145): -20k and -6k
Murphy (BE 126): -2k and -4k
Boyd (BE 157): -12k and +4K
Johnson (BE 102): -4k and -9k
Jelwood (BE 126): -1k and -13k

More price rises from our Rookies over the next few weeks, plus a couple of price drops from the Guns equals less of a price gap between the two.

Now there are some players that have bottomed out already (Chappy) and the rookie price rises are only projections (and depend on JS) but they give you a fair idea of what is to come in the following weeks.

For more Assistant Coach projections, i have done a few up here and will do some more when i get some time.
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,57466.0.html

[Notorious P.I.G.]

Well said.

[Cayenne]

Not only are they still going to make more money - but there is no one on the bubble to replace them yet (aside from pfeiffer).

[Justin Bieber]

I'm going to trade Congs next week to Horsley. Either Devon or Kennedy this week 5fa?

[Lions01]

Well written there Ric

I have enough Cash for Devon Smith to Zakha or ROK so i might go down this path, I'm loaded up on round 11 players and need to start to fix this before the byes and seems like a winner.

As Cayenne said there isnt really any Rookie on the bubble knocking the door down.
As i've got Mcdonald, Shiels, Greene and Magner, ill have to downgrade one of these prematurely for Horsley in the following week (if selected) so Shiels might go earlier the then his peak price.

[Justin Bieber]

I was the same. I had a shocking week in DT (1889) and was searching through a few of my rookies to upgrade / downgrade.

Shocking week?

Did you see my performance?

[CFC 1979]

good research but don't make it too easy for people

of those probs smith may be the first culled

we haven't seen the best of congoilio yet. hope he pulls out some rippers

[Kuruki]

The way i look at it,  holding off and making premium cash before upgrading, is a good method for league, for overall it is risky as hell.
Only one guy who has traded early and crept ahead needs to get lucky in the back half with injuries and what not and the rest of us will never catch him, we might slowly claw back the other 100-200 or so guys ahead of us but that one lucky dude will be out of reach. You need to be aggressive early, and lucky at the end to win this comp imo.

[Dutchie64]

Great article. Well done and thanks...... :)

[Ricochet]

There's one more thing i forgot to add.
With downgrading rookies now, you would want to pick rookies with very strong JS. Because with the byes coming up, you will need to play these rookies while your Premiums warm the pine for you.
Unless you plan to re-trade these rookies through the byes, which i will be doing for some of my rookies as well so i'm not saying thats a bad strategy. But just be aware when picking your rookies now, that you might not be able to rely on new rooks debuting through the bye period