Is Clancee Pearce this year's David Astbury?

[DT87]

Before anyone calls me an idiot for comparing two players who could hardly be more different, or suggesting that Pearce could spud it up (DT wise) as badly as Astbury did last season, hear me out...

David Astbury had an impressive preseason in 2011, scoring well in every game. However there were two big names missing from Richmond's half back line for much of the NAB Cup - Brett Deledio and Chris Newman. When Deledio and Newman did play in the NAB Cup, they were given either limited time on ground or unusually defensive roles, freeing up Astbury to play more attacking footy and get more marks and disposals. Many people were fooled into picking Astbury in their Dream Teams for this reason. In the season proper, Newman and Deledio were put back in their usual roles and Astbury was given a shutdown role, averaging just 25 in the first four rounds before being dropped. Not to mention his "comeback" game in Round 12 where he dislocated his knee and was subbed off for a DT score of 0.

Clancee Pearce has also had a very good preseason, playing mostly in the midfield, and as a result he is one of the more popular smokie picks in DT and SC this year. Similarly to Astbury's case, though, there have been a few big names missing from Freo's midfield in the NAB Cup - David Mundy, Michael Barlow and Anthony Morabito. Barlow has been selected for Round 1, and Mundy, Morabito and Lachie Neale are expected to be back in the next couple of weeks. Pearce may get a fair bit of midfield time in the first two rounds, but with Barlow, Mundy, Morabito, Neale, Fyfe, Hill and Mzungu spending most of their time in the midfield, plus Broughton, Crowley, de Boer, Ballantyne, Duffield and a few others probably rotating through the midfield, and the fact that Sandilands and Clarke spend more time in the middle of the ground than most ruckmen, it is hard to see how Pearce fits into the Dockers' midfield when they are at or close to full strength. Also keep in mind that he was delisted at the end of last season, which suggests he may still be fighting for a spot in the best 22, and could don the green or red vest a few times.

I predict that Pearce will get limited midfield time, average less than 75 and play less than 20 games, which would make him a pretty much worthless pick in DT. I would be happy for him to prove me wrong, but at over $300k, I'm not even considering him. Way too risky.

By the way, I am not averse to midpricers. I have Hanley, Golby, Hargrave and Dangerfield in my team.

[Mr.Craig]

That's very interesting stuff and well thought out. However, I can't remember seeing anyone who has Pearce in their team so I doubt too many people are going to be stung by him this year. ;)

[DT87]

True, I don't have assistant coach so I'm not sure how many people actually have him, but there are some positive comments on his page here and I've seen people talking him up elsewhere. I guess this is just a general warning not to pick fringe players who perform well in the NAB Cup, but are only filling in for first 22 players who will be returning early in the season. Admittedly Golby might just be filling in for Drummond (or Adcock if they move him from midfield to half back), but Brisbane's strategy looks to be very conducive to high DT scores in the midfield and half back, so I'm taking a punt on him anyway.