Third Year breakout is a MYTH!!!

[stew42]

Read this for some enlightenment: http://www.fantasyfootyclub.com/?p=25


Thoughts?

[Disco]

Interestingly enough it looks like it kills the 2nd year blues myth as well. Good job mythbusters

[TheMailman]

There isn't really any specific breakout year rule. People need to remember that players improve differently based on club,location,family and a whole lot of other factors.

[stew42]

What does this make us think about Hep D, D Swallow, Curnow, Zmith? Plenty of uniques there :)

[Gooner]

Interesting reading.

I've never been a bit one for the third year breakout rule.  I think the popularity of the rule is because the third year is when players start to hit 'keeper' scores.  Given the choice between a more experienced 'keeper' and a third year player, the third year player is often better value. 

I think the rule still has merit, although perhaps the name of the rule does not relate to the real reason for picking third year players.  The rule also applies almost solely to midfielders.  It would be interesting to see a comparison of forwards and defenders to assess their breakout years. 

[owenbond007]

interesting article notable most of these premiums have had very ordinary 1st seasons hence the growth in 2nd years players seem to have the most growth. Would like to see results in a much larger scale as the sample size was bias in the fact they picked the current cream of the crop.

[Swallow12]

Theres never been a rock solid rule but an interesting article nevertheless