Slappy Hour

[Slap]

should i get rid of foley and upgrade this week?

or knights to sylvia or Stevie J

btw just finished my last exam for the degree today..wrapped! how long u have left?

I finish on Friday arvo.  Then straight on a plane to Melb for a little bit.  Bout time i get to use my MCC membership!

I haven't been a massive advocate of Foleys.  Although he has eventually done his job; he has earnt you in excess of 100k.  So a job well done.  But, it is time to move on.  Foley's BE according to FF is 117, and that is well above his average of 81.  He looks likely for a price drop.  He is priced at a handy 338k which allows you to upgrade to a gun quite easily.  Ultimately, you could hang onto him and risk Montagna in a few weeks time, who should drop below the 300k mark.  He has a nice run home and averaged 115 last season.  Although it could be an unnecessary risk, maybe an upgrade to an ablett or boyd is more sensible.  This obviously depends on your pocket money and how many trades you have left.

As for Knights, I'm thinking about keeping him as perma cover in my fwds.  He hasn't really earnt anything (50k) and I don't usually like spending trades on players that havn't been injured or havn't earnt me 100k.  I'd prefer to upgrade players like Darling/Matera/Krak.  But if you don't have them, Knights is a worthy candidate.  He is averaging a mediocre 75, wheras Sylvia and Stevie are in the ton region.  If you can increase your weekly scores by 25+points, I say do it.  it could be the difference between winning and losing. 

As for trading, it all depends on how your team is going, how much cash you have and how many trades you ahve left.  Be sensible with your trades.  If your running low, perhaps save them for the latter stages of the season.  Also consider who you target as an upgrade.  Stevie J has a Bye in the finals which could end up costing you a premiership.  Although, if Bartel ends his season with his injury, Stevie J could even be a permanent Midfielder in the Geelong side...

Sorry to steal your thunder Slap, but I also have Foley so this question also affects me.
I will be keeping Foley for one more week purely because he is playing Melbourne.
Foley’s scores this season reflect that he loves playing against weaker sides.
Foley has scored three tons this season and one score of 97. They have come against North Melbourne (108), Brisbane (123 and 97) and Port Adelaide (127).
The other teams Rich have played are Car, StK, Haw, Coll, Fre, WB, Ess, Syd where Foley has scored less than 90.
The pattern here is that he loves the weaker teams and Melbourne has been giving up plenty of DT points this season.
Plus guys like Martin, Cotchin and Deledio are likely to get the tags leaving Foley free.
I think while he might not hit his BE this week he has a good chance of tonning up.

Feel free to join in bro, I'm not one of those guys that will get devo if you help out!

I can see what you are saying, but I'll offer a little rebuttal.  But if I got Foley in at the beginning of the year, it'd be a cash earning exercise only.  I wouldn't have pictured him as a keeper myself and would have imagined I'd trade him out for a gun at some point in the season.  If this doesn't fit your train of thought, ignore the following.  Since, he has earnt you 100k, its been a worthwhile exercise.  But even if he does get 100 this week, he still goes down in price, not helping your original objective.  The goal is to buy low and sell high.  You obviously want to sell high on Foley and I'd imagine this week, he'll be more expensive than next.  Add to that, if you got a gun like Ablett in for Foley, (who has been average something like 138 over the last 3 or 4), your looking at a big jump in what you expect from a player - thus helping your team out, not just in the short run... but in the long run.

I see where your coming from, but I guess i just offer a diff perspective.  Think of DT as a business.  In economics, they say: a dollar today is better than a dollar in a week.  An Ablett today is better than an Ablett next week.

[Slap]

Hi Slap,
Two part question here.
Who to upgrade this week â€" Heppell or Knights (other trade is Selwood--->Swan/Pendles)
If Heppell â€" Shaw or Suckling
If Knights â€" Stevie J (Bearing in mind I have Chappy), Harvey (got Petrie), LeCras, Higgins, Rioli or another forward prem who doesn’t have a multi-bye (Fre, Rich, Bris, Ade, Syd or Melb).

Firstly, why not the Heppell and Knights trade?  Selwood isn't playing and will not change in price, so you won't lose anything there.  Swan will most likely become cheaper next round and you win everywhere.

If you cant, I'd do the Heppell trade.  He is looking slower than usual and will lose further cash in his coming games.  I love the kid, but he has well and truly done the job you brought him in to do.  As for Shaw and Suckling - I want Suckling.  See my post on page one for my reasons.

As for why I wouldn't do the Knights one:
He has been very, very, very, very underwhelming lately.  But its hard to forget that we were all once happy with this pick/prick :P.  Anyway, my point is, he is in a trough, and hopefully he has hit to turning point and will start to improve.  He has only earnt you 50 odd k and doesn't really warrant a trade like heppell does.  he is a seasoned player and could be great Perma cover in your fwds (which is what I am planning atm).  I cant see Knights getting worse than he is now, he is an important part of the Adelaide FC and hopefully he pulls his finger out.  And when he does, hopefully everyone has traded him and doesnt reap the benefits.

And if you did go to the Knights trade, I'd target a Fyfe or Sylvia.  Someone that has a bye in the multi bye round.  Stevie J when you have Chappy and Harvey when you have petrie is a few players (just in your fwds, let alone the rest of your team), that you'll be missing in the finals due to byes.

a) I'm going for overall and Swan/Pendles in for Selwood gives me more points than a Heppell/Knights upgrade IMO. Also if I keep Selwood another week there is no point trading him out.

b) I was leaning towards Shaw but Suckling might be a better bet - for reasons u listed.

c) Knights has been good - but not good enough for me as a premium. I demand 90+ point average from my forward prems. As for getting Sylvia/Fyfe I'm going for overall and if I get someone with a bye in the first multi bye round I get a doughnut and risk another unless Prestia plays. Reason is Mzungu and Howe are two of my back-ups and also have a bye then. Even mpp won't help.

If you had to pick out of LeCras, Higgins, Cloke and Rioli who would u take?

No dramas, I usually write my opinions based that people are going for league wins.  Because most sit outside a realistic shot at overall.  I also don't think Knights is a premo, for the standards you outline as well.  But as perm cover he is pretty handy.

You can't argue with the produciton of Swan/Pendles, esp when Selwood is going to miss multiple weeks in the remaining season.  So i could't fault your decision, a pendlebury score is better than your bench cover for selwood most of the time, and that will add up!

As for those option in your fwds.  They are all very risky.  Injury historys and just inconsistencies are worrying.

Cloke looks good whe he pushes upthe ground and finds his own ball - like he has been doing.  The pies have a very nice run home and no byes so he wouldn't be a bad pick.  If he converts on the scoreboard he could be scoring some big scores.

Lecras has been great recently, but someting about WCE that scare me off.  They are always chopping and changing trying to find a quick fix.  Hopefull he stays in the mids/fwds and gets plenty of possies and a couple goals a game.  I'd be happy to have him

I'd pass on rioli, most of the big scores he gets, he kicks 4-5 goals or tackles  the opposition like 15 times.  These are realistic expectations to have on a player week in, week out.

Higgins could be a good buy at his price, but mr lego seems to breakdown as son as he hits stride.  i'll pass on him, just for the same reasons why i'd pass on shaw.

[Memphistopheles]

Some great analysis there Slap.

Really helped me figure out what i'm going to do.

I'm not going to win the car (rank 709), but my cash bet this year is on finishing higher overall than my mate rather than win our league. We agreed that this is a fairer way to determine who is a better DT players, because the finals system can hinge on luck somewhat (an early injury to a player you have but your opponent doesnt in a finals match can mean a shock loss).

As for the Foley thing - I agree with what you are saying - an Ablett is better than Foley any week.

What I really meant to say is - if you have more pressing trade issues this week like me (Knights, Heppell, Selwood upgrades) then keeping Foley an extra week is a good idea.

If the rest of your team is fantastic then by all means upgrade him.

I am pretty sure I will keep him this week and trade him to Swan next week, who is also due for a price rise.

Selwood will go for Pendles.

As for Knights I might hold onto him and upgrade Heppell to Suckling/Shaw instead.

I will however upgrade him before the multi-bye. For who i'm not sure, but with Callinan playing now I can do a nice downgrade and upgrade combo to get the best possible option here.