The Perfect Number

[LaHug]

Just a thought about upgrading rookies that I stumbled upon while doing some planning and calculating.

Take a rookie at the start of the year with the intention to downgrade/upgrade with him. What is the perfect time to do this?
Obviously, it varies from rookie to rookie, but I found what I consider to be the Perfect Number.
Now, before I go on, I'm not saying in any way, shape or form that a rookie at this price is always ready to go and a rookie below this price must stay on, but it's "perfect" when it comes to the maths.
I found this number to be 280k.

Let me explain...
Say that you wanted to get Dane Swan this week at 460k with a downgrade/upgrade using an average downgrade target at 100k.
If you had two rookies at the PN, the maths would be as follows:
Rookie1 --> Downgrade target = 280k - 100k = +180k
Rookie2 --> Dane Swan = 280k - 460k = -180k
That gives you a net of 0, which is... well... "perfect".

Obviously, this only applies when your upgrade target is around 460k (and obviously your downgrade target shouldn't be much above 100k anyway). You'd be surprised how often the premium you're bringing in sits at around this 460k mark.

So, there is something I saw when planning out the next few weeks. Take from it what you want, I just found it interesting (however trivial it is).

LH

[Prospector_1]

I think this says that the perfect profit from a rookie is $180k. That sound pretty right - in SC I'd settle for $180k too. Would SC change you're PN?

[Nails]

"often the premium you're bringing in sits at around this 460k mark"

There's only 3 players (excluding Barlow) above 450k...

Most premiums you're bringing in are around 350-400k IMO. Therefore your PN is flawed IMO. For example everyone wants to bring in Paul Chapman rd 10 or 11 when he's only at 400k. People got in Jelwood around 410k

There aren't any backs worth more than 382k and he was 23.3k cheaper last week...

Most expensive forward this week is 425K and will drop to ~405-400K after this round. If you want to calculate a PN it should be based on upgrades of around 410K imo.

[RiOtChEsS]

I think this says that the perfect profit from a rookie is $180k. That sound pretty right - in SC I'd settle for $180k too. Would SC change you're PN?

definitely change for SC ;)

the problem with the 280 is think its a number that wont be reached by many rookies except mids eg Curnow Libba Harris etc

of those that arent mids looking at making that are Darling Smith Heppell who r looking worthy of holding :-\

my numbers were 140 DT and 200 SC, wont allow u to pay full price for a gun in most cases but if planets align eg Chapman's fall 8)

[LaHug]

"often the premium you're bringing in sits at around this 460k mark"

There's only 3 players (excluding Barlow) above 450k...

Most premiums you're bringing in are around 350-400k IMO. Therefore your PN is flawed IMO. For example everyone wants to bring in Paul Chapman rd 10 or 11 when he's only at 400k. People got in Jelwood around 410k

There aren't any backs worth more than 382k and he was 23.3k cheaper last week...

Most expensive forward this week is 425K and will drop to ~405-400K after this round. If you want to calculate a PN it should be based on upgrades of around 410K imo.

Fair argument. I was more looking at mid upgrades (Swan, Mundy, Mitchell etc) but it would obviously be different depending on position! And hey, the lower the PN, the better for those of us that suck at picking rookies!

[LaHug]

I think this says that the perfect profit from a rookie is $180k. That sound pretty right - in SC I'd settle for $180k too. Would SC change you're PN?

I don't play SC, but from what I've seen, top premiums are usually priced a bit higher in SC. Thus, I would think the PN would be higher too.

[Wes Mantooth]

i think this is generally accepted... cash cow to premium, but i wouldnt say there's a number... so many variations

under performing cashcows can only become under priced premiums you may think will rise for example and this number could be anything depending on form and the cash cow.