NAB cup performances followup.

[Ziplock]

So basically, pre season, I made a table of NAB cup over performers, (in the mid price range), to help me pick my team pre season. Anyway, I've just kind of done an evaluation of that table (I discounted the premiums A Swallow, Pendles and stanton that I was also looking at pre season),

this means there were 22 over performers I was looking at, of those, 7 have lost cash over the season
(Taylor Walker, Ashley McGrath, Rhys Palmer, Harry Taylor, Liam Anthony, Steven Salopek, Lewis Jetta and Liam Picken)

Every other player has had an increase in price. What's most interesting imo about this table is that it includes the following players
Suckling, Shiels, Nahas, Fyfe
Which would have all been insanely good unique picks for the start of the year.

It also has my own boys, Ward and Cotchin, who've done very well this season as well.

Overall, top performer appears to be Shiels with a +122k gain, and worst performer is Harry Taylor with a -52k loss.

In anycase, I think what this shows (IMO anyway), is that NAB cup stats are a bit underrated (from memory, people only really take serious note of rookies and positional changes), however, what these stats really show is that the NAB cup appears to be a really solid indicator for exactly how well midprices will go in the season, although unfortunately, is not 100% accurate.

Although, for instance, if you started with the worst performers on that list (walker, Taylor, Palmer), they are pretty well outbalanced by Shiels, Suckling and Nahas, and underperforming mid pricers can always be downgraded in any case.

I don't know if this makes a lot of sense to people, but I hope you all get my general drift from this :)

Spewing I had nahas, shiels and suckling on my radar and didn't start with them.

[ossie85]

Nice Zip. Have a link to the table?

[Ziplock]

I'll post it here (I just did it in word)


NAME          PositionPRICE   2010gp   2010avg   NAB gp   NAB avg   Season avg   Price change
Taylor Walker   FWD   259 100   18   62                  3   98             53.7   -40k
Ashley McGrath   DEF   285 600   18   68.8                  3   86             62.6   -31k
Bret Thornton   DEF   283 800   12   68.3                  2   112                80   +28k
Chris Yarran   FWD   249 700   16   60.1                  3   80                70   +25k
Steele SidebottomMID   332 500   21   80                  2   53                91   +32k
Rhys Palmer   MID   309 500   13    74.5                  3   97                61.83   -38k
Nathan Fyfe   FWD   282 900   16   68.1                  2   82               100.6   92k
Chris Mayne   FWD   262 300   12   63.2                  3   81               80.9   34k
Harry Taylor   BAC   295 700   20   71.2                  2   95                62   -56k
Matthew Stokes   FWD   319 200   15   68.9                  2   92                88   +29k
Mitch DuncanFWD/MID278 200     8   67                  4   77                81   +27k
Liam Shiels           MID   221 500   6   53.3                  2    97               99.5   +122k
Matt Suckling   DEF   212 600   5   51.2                  2   91               96.5   +106k
Liam Anthony   MID   355 600   7   95.1                  2   69               83.83   -24k
Steven Salopek   MID   297 900   15    71                  2   95               75.25   -4k
Trent Cotchin   MID   307 800   17   74.1                  2   99                90   +42k
Robin Nahas   FWD   264 300   14   63.6                  3   95               90.5   +114k
Tyrone Vickery   RUC   172 000   14   41.4                  3   79               54.6   +28k
Lewis Jetta           MID   225 200   18   54.2             3   85              55.43   -28k
Callan Ward    MID   228 000   7   61                  3   85              82.43   +52k
Liam Picken           MID   256 500   17   61.8                  2   81              60.43   -3k

[ossie85]

Well there we go :)

[Nails]

Shiels puts you in an awkward position though.

When it comes to trading him it's six of one half a dozen of the other. He's pumped out great scores for his price, but it's hard to burn a trade on a player averaging ~100 in the mids lol. Obviously you want to upgrade but I'd nearly find myself letting him play it out especially if I have 5 of the best. At least you can maybe upgrade somewhere else? I don't know :o

[Ziplock]

oh I've got no intention of trading him in, he was one on my watchlist pre-season :P

[Nails]

Yeah I didn't think so, but those who started with him..

It's like do I keep him as 6th mid or accept he's been a great cash cow

Hard to trade someone out averaging ~99-100 but you want Selwood who's averaging say 115 at one point for example...

[yorgis]

hey ziplock why did'nt you acually select nahas shiels and suckling ? chances are you [and heaps of others] did not think that these players would consistently play well and obviously you selected players that you thought were better. this years nab cup was a shambles with these 20 min halves etc. players being rested, played in new positions. just how many coaches actually played every game with the sole intent to win?

[Ziplock]

well, I only intended on putting so many mid pricers into my team, for instance, I went cotchin and ward into my mids (rather than shiels), and if I'd wanted a mid price back I'd have gone adcock (who I ended up trading in) rather than suckling.

But yeah, that was my logic, my point is, that the calibre these players showed in NAB appears to have carried through the season, making me think (and the point of this post), that NAB is undervalued from a fantasy level.