Trade help with Hayes and possibly Johnson (Freo)

Possumo · April 04, 2011, 04:37:42 AM

Hi guys, been reading the forums a bit this year, and thought I'd ask for your opinion on the trade (s?) I was planning for this week. So anyway, I managed to miss picking Gibbs and Swan (haha yeah I'm an idiot... but I think I was hoping going for more uniques would pay off, and I'd pick up Swan soonish into the season as surely his price would fall due to his high price. Wrong and wrong and I'm now 0-2 for the season. My opponents of course had Swan/Gibbs, and both scored 2150+ :P), and now Hayes is out for the season. However, it gives me the pre-text to fix up some of my bad picks. Basically, my backline is missing premiums baring of course Goddard and Grimes.

Anyway, here is my rather shabby team, with 33k in the bank:

Grimes, Goddard, Adcock, N. Lower, Dempsey, M. Johnson, A. Otten, (B. Smith, M. Hibberd, J. Stanley)

Mids - Mitchell, A. Swallow, Hayes, J. Kennedy, D, Swallow, J. Selwood, (Liberatore, Heppell, Harris)

Rucks - Cox, Sandilands, Tippett, Keeffe

Forwards - Rioli, Goodes, Riewoldt, Tapscott, Franklin, Didak, Krakouer (Darling, C. Richardson, B. Matera)

So basically my plan was to upgrade Johnson to perhaps Gibbs or Enright, by downgrading Hayes to perhaps someone like Embley or O'Keffe (any other ideas?). Or like others I could just sideway trade to Pendles, or Dal Santo and leave my team as it is and save trades in the hope Johnson comes good...

however, I'm reluctant because the way my league is looking at the moment, the top 8 is full of pretty good teams all averaging 2040 + so far, with the top 4 2100+. So in my mind it's either get my team competitive right now or I'm rooted (technically speaking heh).

The other option is to trade out Johnson for another solid looking young gun and go for Swan, as not having a solid captain is probably hurting me the most at the moment, and it looks like his price will keep going up in the short term. Another good option I have is getting Gibbs for Hayes in the mid, and swapping Johnson for Enright. Any other ideas would be great too, such as perhaps leaving Johnson and doing something with Kennedy, or going for more youth instead (my Mid bench got almost 300 between them this week!).

Sorry for the massive post guys, but I haven't seen any posts so far on my exact problem (although of course there are plenty on Hayes).

Some help would be greatly appreciated.

Edit: I might add that last year I just missed out on the finals despite winning 6 out my last 7 games (many of those against top 8/top 4 teams) due to my slow start to the season (in my defense it was my first season in any fantasy comp, and I choose my team with the advice of a bunch of mates and my own poorly informed hunches in about 5 minutes!). So yes, I'm pretty keen at least make the finals this year, and with my bad start it will make a comeback even sweeter :)

Edit 2: Just looked and my opponent next week is pretty bloody rubbish, so although I was keen on trading before price rises (such as Enright, Gibbs and Swan), would I be better off waiting? I'm less inclined to do this also because I will probably want to use trades in week 3 too, if I play someone decent.

Cheers

Chopps · April 04, 2011, 08:59:17 AM

short reply, issue with league only and you dont have enright or gibbs already if you burn two trades to get them you also need to cover them rd 22 & 23 which are finals weeks

yorgis · April 04, 2011, 11:49:03 PM

kennedy >>>> ward and hayes >>>> swan

Possumo · April 05, 2011, 12:08:42 AM

Ah thanks for that then Chopps, this whole bye thing is pretty confusing for me, good to know Gibbs and Enright will be no good for those rounds. I've already got Selwood, so perhaps its best to not double up on two premiums I'll have to trade/bench for those rounds, especially since I probably won't have many trades to burn left by then if i want to keep in contention...

Cheers for the tip Yorgis, I've seen a bunch of people keen on getting Ward... and yeah getting Swan probably is a priority at the moment. With Ward though, would I want to play him over Libba, Harris, Swallow and Heppell? Or is it just a good value trade so I can get Swan and get enough quality rookie? I've got so many good rookies at the moment who are pretty much all playing, and some of them are scoring high enough to make me think trading out my medium value 300k ish players such as Dempsey, Johnson and Kennedy and just going for mostly premiums/rookies is the way to go, at least in the near future depending on how the rookies go.

What does everyone else reckon on Kennedy > Ward and then Hayes > Swan? Perhaps Johnson more of a liability and I could trade him for a good defender? Or is Ward probably the best value rookie I don't have?

Cheers for the replies guys.

Edit: What about Hayes > ROK, Johnson > Gibbs? Possibly a bit too much of a sideways trade eh? Plus I already have Goodes, so byes will hurt a bit (although I have good bench cover in the Mids/Forwards).

Possumo · April 05, 2011, 07:38:10 PM

I know it's a wall of text, but has anyone got advice on JPK to Ward, then Hayes to Swan (a good option made even better by the fact I probably want some cash to upgrade Johnson the week after...), Hayes > ROK and then Johnson to Gibbs , or my original idea of going Hayes > Gibbs in mid, then Johnson to Enright (considering of course as Chopps said that they have byes in the finals in rounds 22/23). The price rise of these players is one of the reasons I want to get Enright/Gibbs now, as they will both skyrocket in price, whereas Swan won't go up that much in price. Baring in mind also that I DON'T need my team to be competitive this week, as I'm playing 2nd from bottom. However, I want my team to be at least decent by round 4, so that's what I'm aiming for at the moment.

Even though Enright/Gibbs have byes in rounds 22/23 in the finals, at this stage I might not even get there, so although it's a concern, my priority is more on being competitive now. I think the getting Gibbs/ROK and Swan/Ward options are good. I just need to consider how much I'm going to miss out on by not getting Gibbs/Enright or ROK before their price rises...

Cheers guys.

Possumo · April 08, 2011, 02:02:40 AM

If anyone's interested I decided to get Swan in next week instead, as Gibbs breakeven was a lot higher than Swan's or Enright's... so in the end I traded Kennedy for Curnow, and M. Johnson for Gibbs.

Cheers for the help guys.

Bluke · April 08, 2011, 02:42:08 AM

Yep, good call Possumo.

I like your logic with the Breakevens.

Holz · April 08, 2011, 07:17:46 AM

Quote from: Bluke on April 08, 2011, 02:42:08 AM
Yep, good call Possumo.

I like your logic with the Breakevens.

only thing i really dont lkie is trading in curnow when you have the chance to see if he is a sub or not. If you cant have acess to a computer br friday, at least you held of to thursday. For a league win its the perfect choice, gibbs will continue to score well, knowehre near what he is doing now but should be 1st or 2nd in the backline wheras with the likes of selwood back i cant see enrgith keeping it up.

Possumo · April 12, 2011, 10:35:50 PM

@ Holzman - I actually was trying to hold off till the last minute, but I'm actually living in France this year, and I just started a new job on thursday, so due to the time difference (we are 8 hours behind here) I had to make the trades thursday night. From all the decent info I could find though, Curnow was going to play :P The trade obviously ended up working out well for me too (Curnow :P), as although Gibbs didn't score that well, Enright did worse, and Swan didn't score that highly either. Wondering now whether I should wait until after the bye to get Swan in... I should be able to beat my opponent in Round 7 with my current lineup, but I'll have to make sure his team doesn't improve before we play :P

Been reading lots of the other posts in this forum too by the way. Been helping a lot due to my complete lack of access to the actual game footage (if you even try watching highlights on the AFL website, it re-directs you to a website demanding a monthly/annual fee... can't bloody believe it...).

Cheers guys :)

yorgis · April 12, 2011, 11:10:35 PM

have your finger on the trigger before lockout, and if your opponent looks beatable, let it go and wait. there is still 3 multi team bye weeks to go and then pies have rnd 7 off. anything can happen in that time. WAIT

Possumo · April 15, 2011, 12:59:28 AM

Cheers Yorgis, I was thinking the same thing... I'm fairly happy with my team at the moment, but I'm wondering if I should bolster my backline a bit more... at the moment I have Gibbs (traded him in for Johnson last week), Goddard, Grimes, Adcock, Dempsey, Lower, B. Smith, A. Otten and J. Stanley (I think I stuffed up and got the wrong Stanley haha! How was I supposed to know there are 2 Stanley's at GC!). I'm not sure why I got Dempsey, but I think a few people here had him in their teams... should I perhaps upgrade him to a premium? I think I can afford about 350-370k after the Hayes > Swan trade.

Cheers again.

Possumo · April 17, 2011, 01:18:42 AM

So my hand has been forced by Dempsey's injury. A final parting insult of getting injured on 14 means I'm going to have even less money to play with unfortunately, as he is now down to $259k according to Monty's BE's. I've got $150k in the bank, but I was going to use that up soon to go Hayes > Swan when the time is right (probably after Rd. 7). However, I'll probably be able to make some cash off one of my rookies by then, so a double trade then is probably not a bad option if I get a premium for Dempsey in the next few weeks as well... just wondering which Defenders are worth getting... Enright I mentioned before but as other's mentioned he has a bye in the finals, and i already have J. Selwood. Is it perhaps worth taking a risk and jumping on someone like Broughton or Duffield when their price crashes? Or perhaps I should even bring in a rookie like Duigan and wait a bit longer (however even though B. Smith, Otten, Heppell (DPP) are playing well for the moment, I reckon my backline of Goddard, Gibbs, Grimes, Adcock, Lower, and either Smith/Otten/Heppell needs another premium...

Anyway, tell me what you think. I can probably sit on this trade for a while I guess, as I am only going for the league win.

Cheers guys.

Edit: I just checked, and I'm playing two pretty good teams in Rd 9 and 10. So I do have some time to strengthen my team...