Are the 2nd year blues really that bad?

[bluedreamin]

I see it pop up regularly "avoid the 2nd year player" but I'm wondering if this is just one of those myths that is perpetuated over time because of a few bad experiences. What players are we talking about who have suffered 2nd year blues? What players have defied the 2nd year blues and equalled or improved upon their first year averages?

For example, Joel Selwood averaged 77 SC points in his first year, 98 SC points in his 2nd year but we probably all know he is the poster boy for beating the 2nd year blues. I'm sure there are others like him.

List em here peeps :)

[FactHunt]

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,25794.msg333572.html#msg333572

[simma1978]

There wouldn't be many like Selwood who average 98 in their 2nd year of league football. I think the main reason why people avoid 2nd year players is their price. Usually the price doesn't match the potential output, hence why most coaches avoid them. It's usually better going for the first year players due to their low prices.

[bluedreamin]

Apologies for re-hashing an old thread - but things move so fast on here you have to go back pages to find things :)
I get the decrease in upside argument for 2nd year players. It's a good one. Value for money drops but I am also weighing that up against job security/likelihood of getting games and, in the end, aren't we trying to get more points than the other guy each week?

For what its worth, being a blues supporter I looked at our last three 1st draft picks for comparison:
Murphy: 70/80
Gibbs: 63/92
Kreuzer: 60/79

Perhaps it's just simply a trade-off between peace of mind (picking a mid-priced player who you know will play regularly and get you a predictable number of points and has potential for improvement) against a risky, but potentially lucrative rookie (may not get many games but could explode like a Barlow).

[burner11]

Rockliff last year did ok in his 2nd year as well ;-)

[FactHunt]

No worries about the topic, just thought the old thread may have been of interest. I understand your point there BD, IMO you always lock the rookies/rookie pricers you are confident will play games... then if you MUST, you fill the gaps with the mid-priced blokes with potentially the most upside.

[bottlemart]

Rockliff last year did ok in his 2nd year as well ;-)

Yes, Rockliffe did well, but he was priced as a first year player, at $110k approx.  the reason we generally don't pick 2nd year players is because they are too pricey when they start their second year above $300k, and they are not quite good enough just yet to break into the premium catergory.  It all comes down to price.

[Fletch74]

Rockliff last year did ok in his 2nd year as well ;-)

He only played 1 game in his first year. that doesn't count in terms of fantasy.