price increase time frame question

[newfreofan]

Just wondering - if a player begins at 110k, what would they need to average to reach 216k by the end of round 4? Considering starting without Petrie then hoping a rookie ruckman jumps to his price before he rerates. Should take care of ruckman cover and turn him into the ultimate bench cash cow. Reasonable hope or am I dreaming?

[LiveTheDream]

don't know what they would need to average, but petire won't rise in price till round 5 so you have an extra week

[j959]

wonder if there's a place that has last year's player price increases by round??

newfreo, you may be able to get some data using Grimlock's FFGenie - new version not out yet and i'm not sure if you can play arond with last year's stats on the 2010.3 version ...

if you google FF Genie you'll get a heap of access points to the application.

hope that helps a bit ...

[bc6840836]

I'll give this a crack....

A rough esitmation of the price rise formula is:

=((((<3 gm ave>*4900)-<current price>)*3)/11)+<current price>

assuming the player playes all 4 games there will be 2 price rises after round 4,

if the player averaged 70 points in the first 3 games it would be:

=((((70*4900)-110000)*3)/11)+110000
= $173,500 as roughly their new price

then after round 4 if the player still had a 3 games ave of 70:
=((((70*4900)-173500)*3)/11)+173500
= $219,700 roughly

Stop reading here if you are not interested in the techie stuff!

This is pretty rough and just to give an indication, all the prices are lower in SC this year which may change this formula slightly (the magic number of roughly 4900 would change) also with the 3 game rolling average if his first or last game was particularly good or bad that would change the result as well e.g. a great first game would drop of his 3 games ave after round 4.

An accurate formula is very hard to determine as the total amount of money for all players in the competition is constant from round to round and so as the rookies go up in value the premiums tend to go down in value even if they hold their average (which means the magic number changes as the season goes on). So if anyone has a more accurate price formula please share it.

Hope that helps.

[newfreofan]

It certainly looks impressive mate, though I'm not sure if I want to replace a 70 averaging kid so soon... Food for thought though thanks.

[j959]

It certainly looks impressive mate, though I'm not sure if I want to replace a 70 averaging kid so soon... Food for thought though thanks.

knowing when to cash in your 'cash cow' rookies/fallen premiums/returning LTI cheapies is obviously one big part of the game and even though many people will have fairly similar starting teams, it's this sort of thing - along with when the premium you want to trade into your team has bottomed out - that can make the difference in your overall ranking and league match-ups!

thanks for the analysis bc!

[Usman]

If a $103,600 rookie ruck avg's 70 points a game and i mean 70 for the first four weeks with no fluctuations as bc6840836 explained, he will be $209,000 by round 5

In the same situation a $110,200 rookie will be worth $212,300 by round 5 just to give you an idea.