DC 2018 Team Diary

[DMCC10]

Hey guys, wasn't going to do a team thread this year but have started the season extremely well and would really appreciate some advice and feedback from you guys to assist me throughout the year in aim of the number 1 spot. Normally I start the season 20000th and work my way back into the top 100 getting to 30th in round 15 last year only to run out of trades and plummet (therefore a major goal of this year is to hold onto trades). Differently, this year I have put myself in an excellent position to put me in overall contention, sitting in 96th after round 1, and 10th after round 2. Let me know what you think. Cheers.

ROUND 1

Score: 2498
Weekly Rank: 96th
Overall: 96th

DEF: Laird, Sicily, Bonner, Doedee, Finlayson, Murray (Naughton, Mirra)
MID: Martin, Mitchell, Fyfe, Cripps, Beams, Coniglio, Kelly, Holman (Banfield, Barry, Garlett)
RUC: Gawn, Goldstein (Olango)
FWD: Billings, Walters, Smith, Petracca, Lobb, Christensen (Fritsch, Ryan)

Trades: Beams > Dangerfield
Salary: $37,500

[DMCC10]

ROUND 2

Score: 2438
Weekly Rank: 856th
Overall: 10th

DEF: Laird, Sicily, Bonner, Doedee, Finlayson, Murray (Naughton, Mirra)
MID: Dangerfield, Martin, Mitchell, Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Kelly, Holman (Banfield, Barry, Garlett)
RUC: Gawn, Goldstein (Olango)
FWD: Billings, Walters, Smith, Petracca, Lobb, Christensen (Fritsch, Ryan)

Trades: 29
Salary: $37,500

I want to hold onto trades unless they really need to be used. Olango to English is an option, however English looked poor on the weekend scoring 0 to half time, and I'm not quite sure on his JS at this point in time. Sicily looks to be in a fair bit of strife I reckon for his knee to Selwood and would then have to field Naughton which would be disastrous in a thin defence so his potentially on the chopping block but at the same time I still expect a 90+ average when playing and he provides a D7 & F7 swingman for later in the year which could be extremely beneficial. Another on the chopping block is Rory Lobb but I am willing to give the bloke a chance. Coming off an interrupted pre season he is still finding his feet, and watching the game on the weekend he was dropping marks he would usually take, had 11 clangers which I doubt will be a regular occurrence, and giving away free kicks (a few of which were very unlucky imo) so despite his poor score, there remains upside. To be fair, Grundy smashed him and this could be a good learning curve for him. He has a breakeven of 78 which is easily doable and he proved his worth in R1 scoring 97 so to give up on him due to one poor game could be a bit of a rage trade. Comes up against Sinclair this week so might hold and see if he can score decently. What do you guys think? If I do get rid of Lobb I don't have funds to get Heeney, Franklin, McLean, etc. so would most likely get Tim Taranto who has been getting increased midfield minutes and scored 113 and 100.

[SilverLion]

Congrats on the start mate, maybe you should be the one giving us advice ;D

If Sicily cops a week I would trade Naughton/Mirra to Murphy to cover for him. Should make more cash than either of those two, and means you don't have to trade out a premo whose only missing a week.

Would hold everyone else. English far from a necessity, could even be dropped this week.

[DMCC10]

ROUND 3

Score: 2226
Weekly Rank: 18,538
Overall: 64

DEF: Laird, Sicily, Bonner, Doedee, Finlayson, Murray (Naughton, Mirra)
MID: Dangerfield, Martin, Mitchell, Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Kelly, Holman (Banfield, Barry, Garlett)
RUC: Gawn, Goldstein (Olango)
FWD: Billings, Walters, Smith, Petracca, Lobb, Christensen (Fritsch, Ryan)

Trades: 29
Salary: $37,500

Had a horrible week and surprised to still be in the top 100 but il take it! Didn't end up making any trades however attempted to do Olango > English at smack on 3:20pm yesterday but was unfortunately locked out which was annoying as English scored well and looks like he will make some cash and ruck cover but you win some you lose some. Had some shocking scores this week from premiums including 50s from Goldstein, Billings and Lobb which all hurt, as well as playing Naughton in place of Sicily, however was happy to take a 60 from him. Injuries to Walters, Lobb and Ryan could be an issue, but from what I have heard all of them seem minor at this stage. On the bright side however there were some shining lights for the week including Fyfe (VC), Mitchell, Coniglio, Gawn, Walters, Petracca & Murray.

I am thinking of going aggressive with my trading this week and going Billings > Heeney and Lobb > J.Higgins. Yes Billings is a rage trade but he isn't performing and from watching the game he goes missing for extended periods of time and his uncontested game isn't gaining enough points (79SC from 23 disposals and 54SC from 17 disposals). Billings has been disappointing apart from his 133 in R1 against Brisbane (looking back at stats from last year Billings averaged 88 against the top 10 teams with 7/14 (50%) of games with scores < 75. Alternatively against the bottom 7 teams he averaged 100 with 1/8 games below 75, evidence he is a flat track bully - StKilda are in poor form and play against Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Richmond, WCE and Sydney within the next 9 weeks which will be a challenge, and with the lack of easy beats, I can't see Billings scoring highly on a consistent basis. Heeney on the other hand has gone 100+ in 3/3 games and despite not getting a lot of the footy, his contested possessions are getting him lots of points compared to the uncontested game of Billings, and when he is near the ball he looks much more dangerous and likely to make an impact compared to Billings. Sydney come up against Bulldogs, NM, Fremantle, Brisbane, Carlton & StKilda before their bye, a much more favourable fixture than StKilda so I expect Heeney to maintain a 100 average consistently rather than the rollercoaster of Billings. With a BE of 160, I think its time to move Billings on now before he plummets in price.

The 2nd trade for the week will most likely be Lobb > J.Higgins to free up some cash. This will be an easy decision if Lobb is ruled out this week, however may think hard about it if he is named. Obviously a poor game in R2 but his poor R3 score is solely due to his knee injury and the subsequent result of playing the entirety of the second half out of the goal square where he was slow and sore. As the ruck he was sitting at 35SC ten minutes into the second quarter and was actually looking half decent so the potential is there, however the injury could mean if he plays he spends more time forward. He has a BE of 113 which isn't horrible so will be a tough decision whether I move him on or not. This trade would give me 250k in salary to make upgrades next week.

Another option is Goldstein > Naitanui. I watched the WCE vs Geelong game yesterday and jeez NicNat looks good despite his limited TOG%. He makes a huge impact and gives his midfielders first use in the stoppages, allowing him to gain massive HOA% and high SC scoring. He has gone 113, 85 & 110 from 54%, 56%, & 56% game time which is insane, and he has the tied highest PPM with Fyfe (1.5 PPM). In 2016 he averaged 106SC from an average of 68% game time (excluding his injury game) therefore even when fully fit he generally has limited game time as he is an impact player so realistically he will eventually up his game time by approx. 15 minutes which currently with his PPM of 1.5 is worth about 22.5 extra points on his current average. Goldstein started the year well but was extremely poor against Gawn in which Scott said the major factor in the game was Gawns dominance and that Goldstein was well beaten with 50 hitouts to Gawn, and just 15 to Goldstein. He has also been in and out of games with shocking second halves in both R1 & R2, therefore I am worried about his consistency. I expect Goldy to bounce back this week as he would be embarrassed by that performance and with a reachable BE of 123 I might hold an extra week, however he is on the chopping block as another bad game opens the door for Preuss who apparently played well in the VFL, and could even come in this week.

[crowls]

Great read DMCC.   Still think the premise of single ruck for Lobb holds up.   If we had some decent fwd rookies we would hold him.   Goldy worries me,  I believed he had his head sorted (ie personal life) but could be still going on.    Any North fans shed light.  Liked your analysis of Billings.  God he was a pigeon on the weekend. 

[DMCC10]

Thanks SilverLion & Crowls for the feedback, appreciate it. Even though I still believe that Lobb can go 90+ in the #1 ruck role, he has only really performed against second tier rucks with his poor game this year against a proven ruck in Grundy. With the knee injury I expect he will be managed back into it (knees and ruck contests don't mix well) with forward rotations with Patton who had a presence in the ruck last week. Within the next 6 weeks he comes up against Sandilands, Martin, Naitanui & Goldstein which will challenge him. I think as the year goes on he will greatly improve with more ruck exposure, but at this point in time he seems too much of a risk to hold onto. Additionally, he didn't train on Wednesday and remains in doubt for Saturdays game, with GWS leaving the decision until game day. I play footy on Saturday and would miss any late outs so if I kept Lobb I risk him being a late out with minimal cover of Fritsch (other is Ryan so a donut), who I am relying on to cover the other forwards, especially Walters with his hand injury and although it seems fine, 2 late outs while I'm playing with only Fritsch for cover would be disastrous. Currently my trades for this week will be as follows:

Billings > Heeney: As explained in my last post, I think Billings is going t struggle with the upcoming draw and the consistency and contested ball winning of Heeney entices me much more than Billings at the moment who has been very poor his past 2 games. Billings has a BE of 160 so will drop significantly this week and the next and I can reassess after the byes if he looks like regaining form but with his inconsistency and low scores I reckon he will drop to 400k by some point.

Lobb > O'Shea: Now this might seem a bit of a crazy trade to some but personally think it is a risk worth taking. As explained about Lobb, his tough upcoming opponents, the knee injury, and the potential late out this week have me forced to move him on unfortunately despite showing strong signs in R1 and before the injury in R3. I have swung Sicily forward and picked up Cam O'Shea in defence which is a bit left field but he is someone I am comfortable fielding in defence. His JS is a slight concern but with the current injuries I see him getting at least 4 consecutive games playing a SC friendly role. With Byrne, Williamson & Marchbank all out for 4 weeks, he seems a must inclusion for Carlton. Obviously his game in R2 was average with 48 but after being dropped and having a best on ground (for Northern Blues) performance in the VFL last weekend, I think he will hit back strongly. Brendan Bolton tweeted this morning "Our system has to hold up without Marchbank, but Cam O'Shea can play his role". This is good news, and imo Marchbank plays a good scoring role with strong ability to intercept, skills that O'Shea also has, and can provide run and carry as well as marking with his 197cm frame. He previously had 2 seasons of averaging 75 at Port Adelaide before falling out of favour. Obviously VFL form differs from AFL, however O'Shea has decent stats from last year averaging 23.5 disposals (15 kicks at a decent K:H ratio of 1.6:1), 7 marks & 3 tackles per game, ranking 1st in the entire VFL for total marks, 3rd for total kicks (2nd for effective kicks), and 2nd for rebound 50s. Small sample size and only a JLT game but in the one quarter he played (24% TOG) he had 10 disposals (7 kicks, 3 handballs), 5 contested possessions, 1 mark, 3 rebound 50s, 4 tackles and 3 frees for for a SC score of 60 off a quarter, proving what he can be capable of if given the opportunity. Obviously this trade will leave my defence quite thin for a couple of weeks but it leaves me with $220k in the bank to upgrade in upcoming weeks, and I plan on trading Naughton > Yeo when he bottoms out in 2 weeks time to strengthen the defensive line. I could consider Ed Richards as well who is on the bubble this week but ultimately I can only get one as I don't plan on downgrading this early, but I was on O'Shea all pre season and hopefully he can repay the faith.

[crowls]

Another eloquent outline DMCC.   Billings to Heeney can definitely pay off for the reasons you outline.  I will perservere on the belief that he can get back to becoming more involved around the ball.  So far this season his execution has sucked as has his effort in pushing into position.   (Similar for all Saints players).   

I considered Lobb to Petracca however I want to hold until I have the cash to get Heeney or Walters.   While holding I expect his price to drop a bit but eventually to get back to around 90"s at least.   Heeney for the reasons you outlined.  Walters because he is getting the midfield rotations that enable him to score around 100 on consistent basis.   Buddy the other forward upgrade but waiting for his 2 game slump.   

Read today in the HS (forget who) was writing they can see Buddy going 100+ this year.  If he does then probably makes him no1 forward for SC as well.

[Peter]

Fantastic stuff DMC and glad your back writing up - as I said a couple of months ago, live how you justified your teams over last couple of years. I had actually got rid of Billings this week for exactly the same logic as you, but got in Walters as already have Heeney - so agree with that one. Personally, I would downgrade Lobb to a cashcow like Ratu (as Higgins JS poor and now dropped). This will give you the cash to upgrade one of your defenders and as he is likely to be the main ruck against the Saints this week, I think a good investment.

Good luck and I am chasing you, but you having Danger is a huge advantage

[DMCC10]

ROUND 4

Score: 2128
Weekly Rank: 35299
Overall: 133

DEF: Laird, Bonner, Doedee, Finlayson, Murray, O'Shea (Naughton, Mirra)
MID: Dangerfield, Martin, Mitchell, Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Kelly, Holman (Banfield, Barry, Garlett)
RUC: Gawn, Goldstein (Olango)
FWD: Heeney, Walters, Smith, Petracca, Sicily, Christensen (Fritsch, Ryan)

Trades: 27
Salary: $214,900

Another poor week sees me drop in the rankings to 133rd which is still within reaching distance of the top 10 but slowly pushing me further away if it continues, hopefully this week can be a good week. There were a lot of poor performances for the week with O'Shea a massive fail and wasted trade over Ed Richards, Holman on field over Banfield, Doedee, Goldstein and the mid price forward selections (Walters, Petracca, Smith) all failing to fire. The one positive was the Billings > Heeney trade in which Heeney pulled out a 120 and just the average 60s score for Billings yet again so I avoided that massive price drop. Not 100% confirmed on my trades this week, but will most likely involve trading out Bonner & Ryan. I can go Ryan > Guelfi and Bonner > Yeo or with some positional changing Bonner > C. Oliver. This would leave my defensive line thin until R7 when I plan on bringing in Buddy and swinging Sicily back. From that point onwards I would be targeting 3 defensive upgrades until R10.

[Bully]

Yeo has a BE of 130 but your defence is wafer thin, I'd be dealing with that, especially given rookies tend to drop their productivity around this time.

Next week you could look at bringing in a guy like Zach Merrett.

[DMCC10]

ROUND 5

Score: 2366
Weekly Rank: 615
Overall: 17

DEF: Yeo, Laird, Murray, Doedee, Finlayson, Mirra (Naughton, O'Shea)
MID: Dangerfield (C), Mitchell, Martin, Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Kelly, Holman (Banfield, Garlett, Barry)
RUC: Gawn, Naitanui (Olango)
FWD: Heeney, Walters, Smith, Petracca, Sicily, Christensen (Fritsch, Ryan)

Trades: 25
Salary: $31k

Trades worked well this week with Bonner > Yeo and Goldstein > Naitanui netting me +90 odd points, hopefully this holds up. Had a strong week with the defence strong as always, midfield was solid and although Mitchell & Martin were below par, they actually helped me as many had them captain, which netted me 40-60 more points thanks to Dangerfield's 135. Can never complain about the rucks both scoring 100+ but the forward line has let me down again. Heeney, Walters & Sicily can hold their heads high but jeez, Smith and Petracca are heading towards the chopping block with their recent form. Christensen was a big let down on 66 early in the 4th quarter looking like a decent 80 score before heading to the bench, doing a clanger handball in the heat of the match and ending on a very poor 54 which will also hurt his breakeven unfortunately. Fortunately for me I started the year with Mirra as a loophole so I don't need to bring him in this round, and can settle on a double downgrade of Ryan > Guelfi & Garlett > Higgins/ZGL which will leave me with $190k to allow a defensive upgrade next week, and a midfield upgrade the week after.

[_wato]

You do not need any help my friend.

Nailed your team from the start with the extra defensive rookies and chunked up your forward line, has done you absolute wonders.

Got the big 4 mids as well, cannot fault this team and your plan. Good luck mate.

[Bully]

Good trades, I really think getting the cash cows in now is the right thing to do. Apart from Worpel there's not a lot on the horizon.

[Ringo]

Congratulations on the rank.

Like those trades as not a lot of rookies on the horizon so good idea to cash in now.  Really can not fault the team.