Boom or Bust

Started by strikeforce, February 27, 2019, 10:42:00 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

strikeforce

Anyone remotely tempted to start a defence with the following,

Mills, Williams, Newman, Roberton, Collins and Logue

Would mean you can go 5 deep i the mid premiums and 4 deep in the forward with premiums?


Money Shot

Bust.

You’ll be stuck with 4 defenders average 90ish which means you’ll probably end up keeping them but be losing points to Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, Whitfield etc who will all be 100+ or there abouts.

Keeper27

Quote from: Money Shot on February 27, 2019, 11:11:49 AM
Bust.

You’ll be stuck with 4 defenders average 90ish which means you’ll probably end up keeping them but be losing points to Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, Whitfield etc who will all be 100+ or there abouts.

are you sure that those 4 guys will go back to back top 10 defenders??
i posted this in another thread

Quote from: Keeper27 on February 18, 2019, 10:41:16 PM
I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

add to that the amount of guys who go 100+ in defence, how many do you reckon there have been in the past few years??
2015 - 1
2016 - 5
2017 - 4
2018 - 4

Money Shot

Quote from: Keeper27 on February 27, 2019, 11:25:57 AM
Quote from: Money Shot on February 27, 2019, 11:11:49 AM
Bust.

You’ll be stuck with 4 defenders average 90ish which means you’ll probably end up keeping them but be losing points to Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, Whitfield etc who will all be 100+ or there abouts.

are you sure that those 4 guys will go back to back top 10 defenders??
i posted this in another thread

Quote from: Keeper27 on February 18, 2019, 10:41:16 PM
I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

add to that the amount of guys who go 100+ in defence, how many do you reckon there have been in the past few years??
2015 - 1
2016 - 5
2017 - 4
2018 - 4
They may not be top 10 defenders but they are a much better chance than Mills and Newman.

Keeper27

Quote from: Money Shot on February 27, 2019, 11:55:07 AM
They may not be top 10 defenders but they are a much better chance than Mills and Newman.

that we will see.

GoLions

Quote from: Keeper27 on February 27, 2019, 12:09:05 PM
Quote from: Money Shot on February 27, 2019, 11:55:07 AM
They may not be top 10 defenders but they are a much better chance than Mills and Newman.

that we will see.
I rate the Mills pick. Newman less so.

crowls

Quote from: Money Shot on February 27, 2019, 11:55:07 AM
Quote from: Keeper27 on February 27, 2019, 11:25:57 AM
Quote from: Money Shot on February 27, 2019, 11:11:49 AM
Bust.

You’ll be stuck with 4 defenders average 90ish which means you’ll probably end up keeping them but be losing points to Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, Whitfield etc who will all be 100+ or there abouts.

are you sure that those 4 guys will go back to back top 10 defenders??
i posted this in another thread

Quote from: Keeper27 on February 18, 2019, 10:41:16 PM
I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

add to that the amount of guys who go 100+ in defence, how many do you reckon there have been in the past few years??
2015 - 1
2016 - 5
2017 - 4
2018 - 4
They may not be top 10 defenders but they are a much better chance than Mills and Newman.
and why my Rule  1 only def>500k at season start.   Broke it this year with Laird and Whitfield.  adding more >500k starters increases probability of losing money and having wrong players.

maygs

At the moment (at least for the next few minutes) my DEF is:
Withers, Mills, ZWilliams, BSmith, Roberton, Collins - Burgess, Hore

I'm of the opinion that Laird will be top DEF this year - but only about 5 or so points more than my picks.  I can't really see any of them being being 100+, so 90-95 is fine.  I wouldn't be surprised if 4 or 5 of these guys end up being keepers.

These guys like to take the kick ins and run out of the back line.  The more room may really suit them.

The money I have saved has allowed me to go deeper in the other lines.

I like to speculate - but who knows, with the rule changes we could all be wrong and the old school boys could be the DEF kings this year (Hurn, Rance, Shaw, McVeigh) or the very frustrating Rich could really break out with his big left foot.

Not a lot of people talking about MacMillan or the seemingly ever reliable Simpson this year  8)

I'll tell you in 7 months.

Money Shot

Williams, Newman, McGrath, Smith, Roberton, Wilkie (Burgess, Hore)

So much value but i just can’t risk it.

Newman through til Roberton could all average <90 and then season is over.

maygs

Or they could all ave 90 - which is enough IMO - and then the extras you have in the other lines could make up for missing the couple of 100s from the DEF premos - probably only 20 points overall each week.  The 6 deep in the MIDS could easily make up those numbers.

I have to remind myself that it is the overall score and not the score from each line that matters.  20-30 points down in the DEF and 50-60 points up in the MIDS is a win.

frenzy

Quote from: Money Shot on March 04, 2019, 01:48:43 PM
Williams, Newman, McGrath, Smith, Roberton, Wilkie (Burgess, Hore)

So much value but i just can’t risk it.

Newman through til Roberton could all average <90 and then season is over.

Lloyd and Simmo going back to their decade of ave 90 is just as bigger disaster imo. and just as likely.

Money Shot

Quote from: maygs on March 04, 2019, 02:59:14 PM
Or they could all ave 90 - which is enough IMO - and then the extras you have in the other lines could make up for missing the couple of 100s from the DEF premos - probably only 20 points overall each week.  The 6 deep in the MIDS could easily make up those numbers.

I have to remind myself that it is the overall score and not the score from each line that matters.  20-30 points down in the DEF and 50-60 points up in the MIDS is a win.
Good point.

Money Shot

Laird, Williams, Newman, Roberton, 123k rookie, 123k rookie (Hore, 117k rookie)

Is my current backline and it makes the rest of my team look very strong.

hawkers65

Quote from: Money Shot on March 04, 2019, 05:34:24 PM
Laird, Williams, Newman, Roberton, 123k rookie, 123k rookie (Hore, 117k rookie)

Is my current backline and it makes the rest of my team look very strong.

I previously had this but lets be real, most of the back rookies who will line up Round 1 wont be 123k so this aint gonna work. I switched to only one rookie in defence for the first time this year this morning and i love it.

Laird, Whitfield, Mills, Williams, Roberton, Clark (Duursma, Jones)

crowls

Quote from: hawkers65 on March 04, 2019, 05:45:49 PM
Quote from: Money Shot on March 04, 2019, 05:34:24 PM
Laird, Williams, Newman, Roberton, 123k rookie, 123k rookie (Hore, 117k rookie)

Is my current backline and it makes the rest of my team look very strong.

I previously had this but lets be real, most of the back rookies who will line up Round 1 wont be 123k so this aint gonna work. I switched to only one rookie in defence for the first time this year this morning and i love it.

Laird, Whitfield, Mills, Williams, Roberton, Clark (Duursma, Jones)
does look good and could be 5  top 10 def.