LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 22

[LaHug]

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[LaHug]

Still alive? Let me give you the best options (and a few sneaky PODs) to help you make the Grand Final. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

The facts & thoughts:

Hannebery
Last 3: 112, 92, 59 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 114, 132, 153 (133 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 132, 87, 55 (91 avg)

Absolutely loves to play the Crows and was good last week (although I predicted better). Hanners will go big. Prediction - 125

Parker
Last 3: 113, 116, 105 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 108, 96, 112 (105 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 96, 86, 106 (96 avg)

Not as good as Hannebery against the Crows but Parker is in some solid form. Prediction - 110

Adams
Last 3: 128, 124, 151 (134 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 148, 87, 135 (123 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 151, 87, 95 (111 avg)

I expected good things from Adams last week and he delivered. He's just in superb form and loves to play the Cats. With Pendles out for the rest of the year, you can almost set and forget this guy. Prediction - 135

Treloar
Last 3: 107, 103, 119 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 82, 116, 106 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 119, 57, 98 (91 avg)

Geelong aren't giving up a heap of points right now which makes me a bit concerned about Treloar. His form is good but not great. Prediction - 105

Sidebottom
Last 3: 113, 92, 116 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 108, 131, 111 (117 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 116, 108, 100 (108 avg)

Sidebottom loves to score a ton against the Cats and if you were waiting to bring him into your AF teams (yay for DPP), I'd pounce now. Prediction - 115

Dangerfield
Last 3: 130, 88, 112 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 76, 114, 89 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 140, 88, 76 (101 avg)

Danger delivered last week as we expected but now he has to venture away from the Cattery and play the Pies. He was poor against them earlier this year but he did look injured that game. I like him but there are better this week. Prediction - 120

Duncan
Last 3: 120, 117, 104 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 117, 122, 137 (125 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 91, 117 (102 avg)

Duncan is the top Cat this week. Fresh off a suspension, he kills the Pies. Plus, his low ownership makes him a nice POD. Prediction - 125

Kelly
Last 3: 110, 131, 91 (111 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 111, 87, 21 (73 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 91, 110, 93 (98 avg)

West Coast are one of the leakiest teams over the past three weeks and Kelly has picked up a bit of form right before playing them. I wouldn't recommend him as a safe choice ever because he's still a bit inconsistent but I love him for his ceiling this week. Prediction - 120

Merrett
Last 3: 82, 96, 144 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 127, 119, 107 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 119 (119 avg)

Prior to his week off, Merrett was struggling for form. However, expect a big return this week. Gold Coast are super leaky (to everyone but Zorko, apparently) and Merrett loves to play them. Prediction - 130

Murphy
Last 3: 117, 107, 93 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 117, 88, 24 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 104, 90 (96 avg)

Murphy keeps giving out good scores this season and will likely do the same this week. Prediction - 110

Gibbs
Last 3: 101, 125, 97 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 106, 112, 123 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 97, 108, 145 (117 avg)

Gibbs likes to play the Hawks and likes it under the roof. A good but not great choice. Prediction - 110

Kreuzer
Last 3: 111, 124, 57 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 73, 68, 79 (73 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 57, 149, 132 (113 avg)

Be wary that McEvoy is in some great form this season and Kreuzer already has a bad record against the Hawks. I think he tons based on form but there are better options this week. Prediction - 105

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 118, 99, 94 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 61, 143, 110 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 90, 143, 142 (125 avg)

Tom Mitchell bounced back but, from a guy that was giving us frequent 130s, a 118 down in Launceston (home of big scores) isn't all that impressive. He's started to get a bit of tagging attention too, which makes me nervous. The incredibly high floor (season low 94) is what has me going back to him every week. Prediction - 120

Rockliff
Last 3: 123, 93, 93 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 111, 110, 120 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 101, 111, 165 (126 avg)

I'm calling it. Rocky is back. Last week was no fluke and he's finally healthy. He loves to play the Dees and will be good. Prediction - 120

Zorko
Last 3: 82, 94, 119 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 91, 124, 57 (91 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 124, 91, 124 (113 avg)

Is Zorko injured? I can't explain an 82 against the hapless Suns. I can't believe I made him my captain last week. Not touching him again this year. Prediction - 95

Beams
Last 3: 143, 80, 144 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 77, 53, 76 (69 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 116, 77, 46 (80 avg)

Beams bounced straight back (funnily enough, I moved the C from Beams after copping his 80 onto Zorko last week - maybe you shouldn't be listening to me). Be warned though, his history against the Dees is horrifying and I think it's too risky at this time of year. Prediction - 115

Fyfe
Last 3: 107, 132, 120 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 75, 113, 97 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 132, 88, 109 (110 avg)

Fyfe scored a 107 despite his team losing by 104. That's seriously impressive and backs up his great form. Expect another good one against the Tigers. Prediction - 125

Neale
Last 3: 32, 152, 106 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 96, 149, 57 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 152, 95, 114 (120 avg)

There is no way that Neale is backing his 32 up with anything but a big ton. He looked like he wasn't trying last week and was moved forward as some kind of punishment. Thus is the Ross Lyon coaching method. A huge score is possible - are you brave enough though? Prediction - 120

D. Martin
Last 3: 99, 117, 112 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 90, 107, 100 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 107, 68, 142 (106 avg)

Dusty looked poor against the Cats (well, the whole Richmond outfit did). He's good but not great against the Dockers and there are probably better choices this week. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Lewis
Last 3: 94, 102, 107 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 140, 106, 111 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 94, 78, 90 (87 avg)

Melbourne have a friendly run home. If you're looking for a POD to trade in, maybe consider Jordan Lewis. We know he used to be a scoring machine and he loves to play the Lions. This week, he could be a game changer. Gutsy prediction - 140

The verdict:
1.   Adams (135)

2.   Merrett (130)
3.   Duncan (125)
4.   Hannebery (125)
5.   Fyfe (125)

[Ringo]

Zorko had a player run with him not a tag though and he was doing the team thing. Opened way for Rocky and Beams.

[LaHug]

Zorko had a player run with him not a tag though and he was doing the team thing. Opened way for Rocky and Beams.

Always good to have a team's fan chime in. Thanks Ringo.

As far as I can tell, Melbourne haven't been tagging the last couple of weeks, so Zorko could be fine. I still think Rocky and Beams are safer though.

[Jester]

I would love for Rocky to be back but I am unsure. Witherden and Berry were both out last week, is it possible they have been taking away some of his midfield time?

[LaHug]

I would love for Rocky to be back but I am unsure. Witherden and Berry were both out last week, is it possible they have been taking away some of his midfield time?

That's a good point but he really did just look injured/sore since he missed time. Last week seemed... different.