LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 19

[LaHug]

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[LaHug]

The AFL Fantasy rollercoaster continues, with Beams healthy again and pumping out crazy scores, while Rocky tags Gibbs and they both score horribly. I'm doing my best to find my way through this minefield and I'll drag you through with me. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

The facts & thoughts:

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 130, 147, 143 (140 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 108 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 147, 135, 141 (141 avg)

He only scored 108 in his matchup against his old side earlier this year but Mitchell is killing it right now. He hasn't dropped below the ton all year so you should give him the C just because there's no risk. Loves the G, has a rolling average of 140. Prediction - 135

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 86, 92, 100 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 112, 131, 88 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 102, 96 (99 avg)

Good against the Hawks but pretty average form. Tough one but you could do worse. Prediction - 110

Kelly
Last 3: 98, 110, 136 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 66, 79, 99 (81 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 110, 93, 159 (121 avg)

Kelly sucks against Freo but is a different beast this year. He's great at home and is in good but not great form. One to consider. Prediction - 115

Shaw
Last 3: 68, 72, 118 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 124, 109, 147 (127 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 72, 84, 113 (90 avg)

Shaw's for sucks but he's so good against the Dockers. You really can't do it but if you need a POD, look his way. Prediction - 100

Gray
Last 3: 101, 83, 76 (87 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 125, 121, 124 (123 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 83, 59, 117 (86 avg)

The Saints are, by some metrics at least, the best team to play from a fantasy perspective. Gray has a great record against them too. The real bonus is that Wingard's injury means Gray is required in the midfield and should start pumping out tons. Prediction - 115

Ebert
Last 3: 118, 103, 126 (116 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 124, 88, 110 (107 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 103, 72, 99 (91 avg)

Ebert has been superb this year and now plays the leaky Saints, a team he's pretty good against. If you're one of the lucky few that's had him all along, he might just be worth the C this week. Prediction - 125

Ablett
Last 3: 152, 127, 91 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 120, 141, 106 (122 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 152, 127, 91 (123 avg)

GAJ took last week off to rest his hammy, the same thing he did two weeks ago. I'm not concerned because he pumped out a 152 right after that week off and he's primed to do the same again. In great form, at home, and loves to play the Tigers. Prediction - 130

D. Martin
Last 3: 116, 131, 73 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 137, 140, 100 (126 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 100 (100 avg)

Dusty is in excellent form and managed a 116 last week despite torrential rain. Now he plays the Suns who he loves to play so he should be great. Prediction - 130

Gibbs
Last 3: 37, 113, 117 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 137, 37, 91 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 108, 145, 103 (119 avg)

Gibbs proved that he's very susceptible to a tag last week but I can't imagine the Cats will bother with it. His form was great before last week and he's done well against the Cats. Slightly risky but should be good. Prediction - 115

Docherty
Last 3: 93, 111, 152 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 102, 63, 76 (80 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 149, 130, 124 (134 avg)

His form is a bit down right now but Doch is still a superstar. He's ridiculous at Etihad and that's where we get him this week. With Geelong likely to let him have his, as long as it doesn't hurt them, I like him this week. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
Last 3: 112, 140, 150 (134 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 122, 108, 74 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 117, 139 (124 avg)

Danger was valiant last week after doubts about his foot and I think he'll be better this week with a week to recover. He's Dangerfield and his form is superb. Prediction - 135

Selwood
Last 3: 115, 94, 113 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 86, 83, 104 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 175, 137, 119 (144 avg)

Selwood's not great against the Blues and he's a tag risk. However, the Blues didn't tag Zorko so he'll probably run free. If he does, watch out because his form at Etihad is ludicrous. Probably a bit too risky for me given the other numbers but don't say I didn't give you the heads up if there's another Etihad special. Prediction - 120

Merrett
Last 3: 96, 144, 105 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 148, 107, 63 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 96, 144, 78 (106 avg)

Another disappointing score from Zach and he's starting to look a bit less consistent than we'd hope. He was huge against the Doggies last time but there's definitely a bit of concern there. I'll back him but others are better. Prediction - 125

Treloar
Last 3: 114, 101, 57 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 121, 94, 109 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 57, 98, 122 (92 avg)

Treloar stepped up in Pendlebury's absence and will have to do the same this week. Adelaide are tough to score against but he managed 121 last time. Prediction - 115

Sidebottom
Last 3: 71, 110, 108 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 110, 123, 107 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 108, 100, 124 (111 avg)

Sidey was tagged last week which was very puzzling. It probably hurt a lot that brought him in with his new FWD eligibility but I don't expect a repeat. Great against the Crows and at the G. Prediction - 120

Sloane
Last 3: 134, 34, 105 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 106, 117, 62 (95 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 83, 152, 123 (119 avg)

Sloane continues to prove he can go huge if not tagged. He plays the Pies this week who will tag him with Greenwood. Pass. Prediction - 85

Beams
Last 3: 142, 95, 71 (103 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 88, 125, 113 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 133, 125, 129 (129 avg)

Once upon a time, all superstar premos loved Subiaco. I'm not sure it's quite the same this year and I'm disappointed that this is the last season at one of fantasy's friendliest grounds. Beams is one of those premos that sticks to tradition and he absolutely kills it there. Expect a big one. Prediction - 130

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Neale
Last 3: 95, 114, 100 (103 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 169, 99, 147 (138 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 169 (169 avg)

Why would you give the C to a guy with a rolling average of 103 and whose best score since Round 7 is a 117? Well, this same guy scored a 169 against the Giants last year, and a 147 just two tries before that. He has the ceiling, you need the POD, and both Dusty and Cotch scored tons in torrential rain against the Giants. Gutsy prediction - 145

The verdict:
1.   T. Mitchell (135)

2.   Dangerfield (135)
3.   D. Martin (130)
4.   Ablett (130)
5.   Beams (130)

[GoLions]

Zorko suspended for a week :(

[LaHug]

Zorko suspended for a week :(

I knew that... Silly me. I'll remove him now.