LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 21

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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A shocker of a Sunday may have cost some people matches. Did you trust me with Rocky or did you let Danger lure you (it could've been worse)? For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Hunter
Last 3: 75, 85, 101 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 122, 122 (122 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 75, 101, 90 (89 avg)

Lachie's a little down on form recently but, let's face it, so are the Magpies. The number lover in me wants to see another 122 but I think his current form could hurt him. Prediction - 110

Bontempelli
Last 3: 118, 85, 113 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 91, 97, 92 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 118, 113, 115 (115 avg)

The Bont is tearing it up of late and has been decent against the Pies, considering AF still isn't his strongest point. I'd expect him to crack that ton mark against the Pies this time. Prediction - 115

Sidebottom
Last 3: 106, 109, 96 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 107, 130, 87 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 96, 130, 128 (118 avg)

Watching the game on Friday, Sidebottom would've scored a lot more had his team actually looked up and passed to him. He was very, very open. It might not work that well against the Doggies but his history says he'll be good. Prediction - 110

Treloar
Last 3: 115, 113, 93 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 119, 87, 98 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 90, 87 (90 avg)

Treloar just keeps scoring well and will get another good one this week. Prediction - 115

Rockliff
Last 3: 127, 76, 179 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 184, 143, 95 (141 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 76, 128, 135 (113 avg)

The fact that 127 last week was a letdown says it all. Rocky had a last two of 140 and 180 against the Crows but was hindered by being on the wrong side of a 138 point loss. It's unlikely to be that ugly against the Blues so his last two of 184 and 143 (absolutely ridiculous) is more than enough for me. Prediction - 140

Zorko
Last 3: 82, 85, 102 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 104, 91, 33 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 85, 131, 147 (121 avg)

Not a whole lot to see here although typically good at home. Prediction - 95

S. Martin
Last 3: 130, 111, 100 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 81, 124, 111 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 111, 111, 61 (94 avg)

Expected to play this week (a week too late for my liking) but I'm now concerned because Smith will probably keep his spot. That might hinder Martin's scoring so be careful. Prediction - 110

Gibbs
Last 3: 100, 106, 131 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 58, 103, 67 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 67, 84, 57 (69 avg)

Sucks against Brisbane and is a high risk of the Robinson tag. His current form is the only thing keeping him away from the Potato Forecast. Prediction - 90

Lewis
Last 3: 98, 101, 113 (104 avg)
Last 3 against North: 106, 117, 90 (104 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 98, 113, 106 (106 avg)

Numbers are good enough to be content but not for the C. Prediction - 105

Goldstein
Last 3: 114, 97, 69 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 81, 88, 80 (83 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 155, 133, 99 (129 avg)

Usually poor against the Hawks but has been great at the MCG. Gawn managed 144 last week so a big score is possible. Prediction - 100

Priddis
Last 3: 106, 102, 138 (115 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 109, 98, 111 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: N/A

The Eagles have never played at Spotless Stadium but that probably won't be a big deal... mainly because anywhere away from Perth is awful for the Eagles. Priddis has a good history against the Giants so I'm backing it to continue. Prediction - 110

Steven
Last 3: 64, 73, 145 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 120, 104, 125 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 73, 145, 97 (105 avg)

I don't like that Steven is getting tagged now and being happy to play a defensive role. If Mitchell tags him, I'm concerned. If he runs free, I'm happy. Way too risky though. Prediction - 115

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 105, 156, 109 (123 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 134, 16, 126 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 106, 134, 92 (111 avg)

Everything pointing to another good one from JPK. I can't see any reason he won't rack it up, particularly on a smaller ground with more contested ball to win. Prediction - 125

Hannebery
Last 3: 129, 145, 90 (121 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 133, 75, 41 (83 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 96, 133, 93 (107 avg)

Hanners is back in form and was huge against the Saints last year at this same venue. Prediction - 130

Parker
Last 3: 128, 118, 116 (121 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 112, 97, 93 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 106, 120, 128 (118 avg)

Parker might not have as big scores against the Saints as the other two but his consistency has to add some value. Prediction - 120

Gray
Last 3: 40, 93, 99 (77 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 103, 110, 100 (104 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 99, 115, 107 (107 avg)

Gray is in some pretty bad form and only averages a little over 100 against the Dees. Might just scrape a ton. Prediction - 100

Gawn
Last 3: 144, 106, 120 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 142, 32 (87 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A

Big Maxy Gawn has never played at Adelaide Oval but I don't think that matters. He smashed Port for 142 in Round 10 and has the form behind him to do it again. Prediction - 130

Merrett
Last 3: 89, 101, 130 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 119, 107 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 89, 130, 126 (115 avg)

The last couple of weeks have given me some doubts and the Suns, despite not having a midfield, have given up a top score of only 110 in the past two weeks. I trust Merrett's a better fantasy scorer than the Dees and Giants midfields but it's too risky. Prediction - 110

Zaharakis
Last 3: 90, 64, 69 (74 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 125, 100, 110 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 90, 69, 91 (83 avg)

The Suns don't tag! Zaka might actually be ok! Remember though, he's so worn out from tags that he did only score 64 against the Crows despite no tag. Prediction - 100

Hall
Last 3: 102, 107, 115 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 125, 121, 91 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 53, 55, 70 (59 avg)

Hall is likely to be back this week and is probably the top mid playing Essendon. The theory of that being a safe pick holds less true when it's a guy coming back from a hammy injury... Prediction - 115

D. Martin
Last 3: 110, 112, 103 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 99, 94, 106 (100 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 110, 103, 161 (125 avg)

The Cats well and truly have Richmond's number and I can't see that helping Dusty. However, his form is good and his history is enough to get a pass mark. Prediction - 110

Dangerfield
Last 3: 105, 135, 118 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 120, 95, 114 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 107, 86, 137 (110 avg)

Very uninspiring numbers from Danger here, which is rare this season. His season dominance gives him a bump but there are better options. Prediction - 120

Neale
Last 3: 91, 131, 124 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 115, 70, 70 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 91, 131, 72 (98 avg)

Last week ended a nice little string of good games for Neale and we need him to bounce back this week. Too risky against an Adelaide team that can smell blood. Prediction - 110

Sloane
Last 3: 117, 128, 76 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 135, 87, 112 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 107, 87, 86 (93 avg)

Rory will likely feast again against another weak opposition. It's a good time to have Crows in your team! Prediction - 125

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Please tell me you didn't go my Roughie last week. After multiple big ones in a row, Hunter flopped! In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 139, 105, 61 (102 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 142 (142 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 143, 142, 100 (128 avg)

He's a Roughie because he carries a lot of risk this week. There's a good chance that he tags Steven and he might score poorly because of it. If he doesn't though, we're in for a big one. 139 last week, 142 against the Saints last year at this venue, and a 143 in his only game there this year against the Blues. Gutsy prediction - 145

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Hodgey almost scraped a ton so it's probably just shy of a pass for me last week. Let's try to hit the nail on the head a few more times before the year is out. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Selwood
Last 3: 79, 91, 106 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 79, 82, 98 (86 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 70, 97, 85 (84 avg)

Here are some facts I can't really explain... Selwood has 5 straight scores under 100 at the MCG, and 8 of his last 9 are under the ton. Selwood has three straight scores under 100 against Richmond, his last ton coming in 2012. Add his recent form into the mix and you spell disaster. Spudiction - 75

The verdict:
1.   Rockliff (140)

2.   Hannebery (130)
3.   Gawn (130)
4.   J.P. Kennedy (125)
5.   Sloane (125)

Requests:



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[kilbluff1985]

any consideration for Zerrett that he is Captain this week? i think he will lift

[LaHug]

any consideration for Zerrett that he is Captain this week? i think he will lift

I think banking on a player to lift because they're captain of their team is very dangerous.

[kilbluff1985]

any consideration for Zerrett that he is Captain this week? i think he will lift

I think banking on a player to lift because they're captain of their team is very dangerous.

i wouldn't bank on it but suggesting 110 is a bit low imo around 120

[Bill Manspeaker]

great work as always Huggy. looks like Rocky's the man this week