LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 18

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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We're approaching the pointy end and it's dire times for those just outside of their league finals. Better pick a good captain to catch up! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Pendlebury
Last 3: 101, 91, 124 (105 avg)
Last 3 against North: 94, 127, 126 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 113, 102, 98 (104 avg)

Not bad but not great. Form way too dodgy to look at. Prediction - 105

Sidebottom
Last 3: 110, 119, 64 (98 avg)
Last 3 against North: 131, 141, 61 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 130, 128, 94 (117 avg)

With Adams back in the team, Sidey is very much back himself. Two good weeks in a row and should continue that. He's great against North and under the roof. Prediction - 125

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 131, 115, 106 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 106, 80, 130 (105 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 131, 106, 88 (108 avg)

Form can't be ignored but JPK doesn't have enough against the Blues for me to pick him. Prediction - 110

Parker
Last 3: 111, 98, 158 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 106, 71, 107 (95 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 111, 158, 140 (136 avg)

Parker's a bit up and down but he's so so good at home. You've gotta seriously consider him for every game at the SCG. Prediction - 120

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 109, 95, 62 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 143, 110, 7 (87 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 109, 62, 114 (95 avg)

Thought he was gonna take himself out of the game last week and I was very wrong. 127 over his last two against the Blues so it definitely worth a look. Prediction - 115

Gibbs
Last 3: 100, 104, 104 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 80, 118, 77 (92 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 118, 119, 67 (101 avg)

Consistent form probably gets him a ton but don't expect more. Prediction - 100

Gaff
Last 3: 100, 98, 131 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 101, 124, 106 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 98, 131, 66 (98 avg)

Pretty good in his last few against the Dees but just way too up and down. Prediction - 110

Boyd
Last 3: 105, 104, 129 (113 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 92, 108, 54 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 104, 98, 122 (108 avg)

Boyd's form is the only reason I'm listing him here this week. He's not good enough against the Saints to consider. Prediction - 100

Bontempelli
Last 3: 107, 115, 129 (117 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 66, 84, 66 (72 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 115, 104, 125 (115 avg)

The Bont has a shocking history against the Saints but everything I've seen him do the last few weeks makes me sure I should ignore that. Form too good. Prediction - 115

Steven
Last 3: 97, 158, 65 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 104, 113, 142 (120 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 97, 158, 93 (116 avg)

I don't know what the hell last week was but Steven will bounce back strong. Against the Dogs, he's been great, and he can score big at Etihad. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
Last 3: 130, 139, 95 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 129 (129 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 139, 108, 113 (120 avg)

The only reason you don't make Danger your captain this week is if you're throwing a Hail Mary attempt to climb the rankings or win an unwinnable league game. Prediction - 135

Selwood
Last 3: 128, 95, 113 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 82, 140, 132 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 95, 111, 103 (103 avg)

Selwood was surprisingly poor against the Crows earlier this year but I can't see it happening again. Great history against them otherwise and usually plays well when Danger does. Prediction - 125

Sloane
Last 3: 106, 123, 125 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 155, 100, 109 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 100, 109, 77 (95 avg)

Sloane was SO good against the Cats in Round 8. I'm not sure 13 tackles and 6 frees is likely again but he'll probably be good. Prediction - 125

Merrett
Last 3: 152, 126, 123 (134 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 85, 63,  (74 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 105, 115 (115 avg)

Screw his history against the Lions; Merrett is in extremely good form! I can't see any reason he won't dominate against an awful team. Prediction - 130

Rockliff
Last 3: 128, 101, 101 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 125, 147, 83 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 184, 88, 125 (132 avg)

Speaking of dominating awful teams, Rockliff might do something special here. A huge 188 last time he played at Etihad and plenty of form against Essendon. Prediction - 130

Zorko
Last 3: 131, 90, 147 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 53, 73, 103 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 104, 107, 63 (91 avg)

Fantastic form but surprisingly awful against the Bombers. Still, this is a different Bombers outfit than usual so Zorko will be fine. Prediction - 115

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 125, 84, 121 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 83, 142, 112 (112 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 53, 101 (88 avg)

The numbers look ok, maybe nothing special, but good enough. What interests me is the milestone game. Mitchell's playing his 300th game this week. His last milestone game? His 250th, also against Richmond, where he racked up 36 disposals. I expect something similar. Prediction - 125

Lewis
Last 3: 106, 100, 113 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 117, 109, 99 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 73, 117 (99 avg)

Good enough form to get a mention. Not enough else going for Lewis though. Prediction - 105

D. Martin
Last 3: 161, 103, 99 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 99, 90, 71 (87 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 161, 127, 137 (142 avg)

Last week was massive but I can't see Richmond doing enough this week to help out Dusty, who also doesn't have great history against the Hawks. Form earns him consideration though. Prediction - 110

Gray
Last 3: 122, 115, 107 (115 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 64, 82, 113 (86 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 115, 107, 113 (112 avg)

Robbie Gray is pretty good at home and in decent form but the Giants look like a bit of a bogey team. There's a chance he cops a tag so it's not worth a risk. Prediction - 105

Coniglio
Last 3: 127, 96, 109 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 113, 67, 83 (88 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 93, 115 (104 avg)

Conigs is worth a look this week with some decent form, good record in Adelaide, and a 113 in their last matchup. Way too many better options though. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

My Roughie got injured last week. Let's hope it doesn't happen again! In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

S. Martin
Last 3: 111, 100, 105 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 98, 97, 64 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 81, 92, 96 (90 avg)

The numbers don't say much but it's an in-form Stef Martin against a ruck duo of McKernan and the empty shell of Leuenberger. Could be HUGE. Gutsy prediction - 145

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Last week, the Mitchells decided to rack it up instead of shutting each other down, making me look quite the fool. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Zaharakis
Last 3: 67, 50, 91 (69 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 76, 75, 104 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 108, 104 (101 avg)

Still have Zaka? Same here... and it hurts. In what will probably be the worst game of the year (it's this or Suns vs. Freo... in the same bloody round), we'll likely have our lowest "premo" score for the year. Zaka is getting killed by tags and is a prime candidate to cop the Robinson tag. Ouch! Spudiction - 50

The verdict:
1.   Dangerfield (135)

2.   Merrett (130)
3.   Rockliff (130)
4.   Sloane (125)
5.   Selwood (125)
Special mention: S. Mitchell (125)

Requests:



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[Dave085]

Hey mate, thanks for your input. I'm going Rocky with Danger as VC.

Finally bringing in Merrett this week! Yew! Hopefully Robo goes to Zaka.

[LaHug]

Should've gone Rockliff...

[DBRiMatt]

I felt inspired. so... I went with LAHUGS ROUGHIE!!

Upon re-reading his roughie last week being injured, the start of this match almost appeared as if cursed.... Martin bouncing back, 110 at 3/4 time.

Cheering on to Marty to get that 145pt prediction ;D

[LaHug]

I felt inspired. so... I went with LAHUGS ROUGHIE!!

Upon re-reading his roughie last week being injured, the start of this match almost appeared as if cursed.... Martin bouncing back, 110 at 3/4 time.

Cheering on to Marty to get that 145pt prediction ;D

Probably can't complain with 130. Good job!

[Mr.Craig]

As soon as I saw that headline about someone accusing Rocky of being out of shape I knew he'd blast.

[Chelskiman]

That moment when you wake up Sunday morning and most of your players have smashed it and you haven't put the C on any of them. 

That even better moment when you have the C on Rockliff.

:D