2015 Ruck Strategy

[RaisyDaisy]

- Hickey will score 49 - got 62
- Pierce will score 32 - got 21
- Ceglar will score 118 - got 118
- McEvoy will score 107 - got 109

[timtim]

- Hickey will score 49 - got 62
- Pierce will score 32 - got 21
- Ceglar will score 118 - got 118
- McEvoy will score 107 - got 109

I'm happy with that. Thoughts RD?

To answer your previous question yes the +/- is the model 'error'. I've based my model thus far on a sample of 67 players... with a bigger data set the model will theoretically become more accurate and the 'error' will decrease.

That said I'm not sure there's enough games left to provide enough data because the inputs are skewed by:

a) the mystery SC loading for crucial plays
b) there have been some above average thrashings in there
c) hit outs are not differentiated because I can't find data on "to advantage" or "other" (model is based on 974 HOs in total)

[RaisyDaisy]

I think what you've come up with is really neat, but like you said it's going to very difficult to refine it's accuracy due to points you raised. Lack of data, Hit Outs to Advantage vs not etc

[timtim]

Sadly no model is going to be 100% accurate, but I'm ok with an R-squared value of 78%. Hopefully after this weekend I'll be able to refine it further and get it up to 80%-85% accuracy.

I won't have time to call out 'predicted' scores vs actual for every game this week, but I'll asses this weekend's results and hopefully come back with some findings to guide our ruck choices this year.

[timtim]

Predicted:

Maric - 94 +/- 13
Goldy - 134 +/- 14

[BomberSam]

I started the season with Mumford and Maric, with Read as FD plus Bellcho cover in the fwd line. After round 1, I made a stupid decision and traded Mummy down to Tex and brought Bellcho up into the rucks.

A couple of weeks ago, I traded Heeney into Stef Martin. So now my rucks are set and forget maybe for the season: Martin, Maric (Bellcho), unless I inject Bellcho cash into an upgrade during the Round 12 bye.

[crowls]

I started the season with Mumford and Maric, with Read as FD plus Bellcho cover in the fwd line. After round 1, I made a stupid decision and traded Mummy down to Tex and brought Bellcho up into the rucks.

A couple of weeks ago, I traded Heeney into Stef Martin. So now my rucks are set and forget maybe for the season: Martin, Maric (Bellcho), unless I inject Bellcho cash into an upgrade during the Round 12 bye.

nice way to recover     S martin has carried on from last year.

me.  goldy maric  read   set and forget.   will sideways if i need to later in the year or ryder for F7/8