Crucial captain decision (Elite)

[clarky245]

big game this week, and with side bottom out my captain options are really down to:

Cotchin v Melbourne
J kennedy v GWS

who do you think will score higher this week?

[Mr.Craig]

Can you post your team?

[pommyadam]

what J Kennedy plays GWS this week?

GWS play the Suns,
Sydney (JP Kennedy) play Freo
and WC (JJ Kennedy) play Brisbane

[clarky245]

My mistake.
Sydney's kennedy play freo. Maybe leaning towards cotch

[pommyadam]

probably a 50-50 call

Freo concede less points per game than the Dees (which may or may not be relevant), but it's is only an average of 5ppg difference
The best mid vs Freo is less consistent than the best mid vs Dees (thank you very much B Ebert) - but Dees have conceded 130+ twice

Demons concede more 70s per game to opposition (10 vs 9)
Fremantle concede more tons per game than the Dees (3.3 vs 3)
so marginal differences

tl:dr
Cotchin
- Dees concede generally higher scores to mids, and concede more 70s (being worst case)
- BUT If you think that Bellis may be top mid, and Parker/Hanners/Jack won't be, then pick JP Kennedy (cause Freo concede more tons)

NOTES:
I have NOT looked at history or weather (remember JPK likes the wet [tackles], Cotchin not so much)
Figures are also based on 3 rounds, so is that a decent sample size?

[clarky245]

thanks for the reply,
A very good analysis!
Appreciate it.

Looks like rain and possible storm for Richmonds game. Cotch could struggle. Fine weather for kennedy.

Another thing is kennedy had a baby boy today so won't fly out until tomorrow to Perth. Not sure whether this will be a factor though.