Is this TOO Guns 'n Rookies?

[Colley Dogs]

Looking for some thoughts on a defensive mid-price strategy. There seems to be a trend towards loading the defense with premiums, but they all seem so speculative I'm seriously considering going in the other direction.

If I can select 6 mid-price defenders to produce 500 points between them (83 average), with all 6 to appreciate in value respectively, I can lock down 11 premiums across the other lines in a classic Guns-'n-Rookies set-up.

I'll need to burn 8-12 trades to upgrade these defenders at some point, but at least I'll have a higher degree of confidence in my 11 starting premiums to remain locks for the season.

See my current team below. Is this SC suicide?

Defenders: Yarran, Lumumba, Ibbotson, Geary, Hunt, Jaksch (Hamling, Saad)

Midfielders: Ablett, Pendlebury, Parker, Dangerfield, Swallow, Cripps, Anderson, Ellis-Yolman (Freeman, Krakouer, Lambert)

Rucks: Goldstein, Naitainui (Cox)

Forwards: Bartel, Martin, Bennell, Swan, Salem, Clark (Daniel, Lamb)

[arbel]

Yeah I think that is going to be way to risky. I mean it comes down to what (if any) backline rookies get selected but think you need to have a couple of premos in there.

I mean you're relying on all those defenders to ave 83. For some that is there ceiling so won't make much money. Your other lines look fine but that's at the risk of the defenders. If it works you're laughing just think there is too much risk involved.

[SydneyRox]

Mid price strategies are all well and good if you pick the right guys. History suggests most mid pricers dont do enough and let us down.

having said that I also cant see so much different about your other lines to warrant the risk either.

[Colley Dogs]

Thanks Arbel and Sydney. Appreciate the feedback.

I can re-balance my team with two downgrade/upgrade moves:

Defense: Ibbotson - Shaw
              Hunt - Gibson

Midfield: Dangerfield - Wells

Forward: Bartel - Mitchell

My whole thinking behind the mid-priced defense comes from the fact I'm losing confidence in Mitchell or similar players at D4 (Bellchambers is someone I have no interest in touching). It seemed turning Mitchell to Bartel & Wells to Dangerfield for two lock premiums was worth sacrificing two premo defenders such as Shaw & Gibson, whom are iffy in my opinion.

However, you both make strong common sense points. Every year I end up reverting to a cookie cutter structure, and every year I finish somewhere between 1000 - 10,000 (apart from a 53rd many moons ago with a mid-priced strategy!). Tempted to try something different this year, but in saying that I don't want to kill my season before it starts.

Thanks again.

[Huttabito]

There are so many good FWD rookies floating around (Clark, Salem, Hogan, Daniel, Lamb, Lonie, Steele, Lambert, Karnezis - Some do need elevating) you could drop one of your FWD premo's to an extra one of them. That will give you a bit of cash to upgrade one or two of the DEF midpricers to premos.

I do think a mid price backline is the way to go this year, I would just feel safer having 2 Premos (I currently have 2 Premos/4 Mids)

Nothing really wrong with your team though, looks good!

[Colley Dogs]

Good points Huttabito. I hadn't looked into starting three Rookie-priced Forwards. Your suggested strategy makes a lot of sense considering my main concern is what I'm getting for 400k at F4. Could go something like this:

Defenders: Shaw, Gibson, Yarran, Lumumba, Geary, Jaksch (Hamling, Saad)

Midfielders: Ablett, Pendlebury, Parker, Dangerfield, Swallow, Cripps, Anderson, Ellis-Yolman (Freeman, Krakouer, Lambert)

Rucks: Goldstein, Naitainui (Cox)

Forwards: Bartel, Martin, Swan, Salem, Clark, Karnezis (Steele, Lamb)

Steele on the Forward bench provides a nice link to Krakouer & Lambert to 7 players for 3 spots, which is strong insurance. Shaw, Gibson and Yarran are placeholders for the moment. I'll decide on which combination of premiums for D1-3 after this weekend.

Thanks again, mate.

This line up leaves $33,900 in the kitty.

[Colley Dogs]

(Don't know what happened here... tried to start a new topic, but it threw this post into an older thread?)

I currently have no players in the 250k - 450k range.

Defenders: Shaw; Gibson; Hibberd; Kelly; Goodes; Saad (McIntosh; Hamling)

Midfielders: Ablett; Pendelbury; Fyfe; Parker; Cripps; Heeney; Ellis-Yolmen; Miller (Anderson; Vandenberg; Lambert)

Rucks: Goldstein; Naitanui (O'Brien)

Forwards: Bartel; Martin; Bennell; Swan; Salem; Clark (Hogan; Lamb)

Bank: $3,900

14 Keepers

Up until today, when Eade confirmed Ablett would start, I had Selwood instead of Gazza, and Dangerfield at M5 (with no Swan on the Forward line). I prefer this set-up, as it allows me to play Heeney, whom I rate ahead of both Hogan and Lamb.

Any thoughts would be most appreciated.

[Gigantor]

Great side, can't really fault it.
The only change you could do would be swap a fwd premo for a M5 premo but that comes down to personal preference

I wouldn't worry about having no mid pricers, I only have one and am considering getting rid of him.

[Colley Dogs]

Thank you, Gigantor. This looks to be the side I'm going with. Good luck for your season!