Changing Clubs

[Sven]

Hi all,

One of the bigger questions that always gets thrown around in SuperCoach is...

"How well will a player perform now that he's changed clubs?"

Well, using the power of statistical analysis, we can work towards answering this.

I have taken the averages of 61 players who have shifted teams in the past 4 years (2011 onwards), who have then gone on to play more than 10 games at their new club.

The last part of that sentence is really important as it eliminates ALOT of outliers that would otherwise skew the analysis. (ie. player that had an average of 81 from 1 game, then moved to average 56 from 17 games).



SPOTLIGHT EXAMPLE

Andrejs Everitt played 17 games for Sydney averaging 63.4 in 2013.

He then moved to Carlton in 2014, and after 17 games there, averaged 81.2, an increase of 17.8 points.



So, after analysing all 61 players, there is some useful information that comes out of this.

Overall Increase

• Overall, players who moved club increased their average by an average of 4.6 points.
• 59% of players increased their average, or 36 players.
• Of those 36 players, 16 of them, increased their average by over 10 points.
• Highest increase belongs to Dom Tyson, who increased his average by 38.3 points.

Look Out for Defenders

• While the overall trend is up, defenders generally go down in average after moving clubs.
• 14 out of the 22 defenders analysed averaged less after moving clubs.
• Jared Rivers suffered the worst drop, -21.3 after he changed clubs.

Shining Light

• Its not all bad for defenders though....
• Defenders in their second year at their new club turned things around, with all but 1 (Zac Dawson) increasing their average by the end of the year.
• Overall, there was an increase of 7.28 to defenders after their second year at their new club.

Odds on for Midfielders, but Buyer Beware...

• 14 out of the 21 midfielders enjoyed an increase after changing clubs, at an average of 7.6 points.
• Unfortunately, they are almost guaranteed to drop in average in their second year at the new club. 6 out of 8 players suffered a decrease in average in their second year.

Your Best Bet? Ruckmen.

• Out of the 61 players analysed, 7 were ruckmen. Of those 7, 6 of them enjoyed an increase in average.
• Ben McEvoy was the only ruckman to drop, suffering a -3.5 point drop after joining Hawthorn.
• On the other hand, Shane Mumford was the best performer, jumping 22.3 points after joining GWS

Last but not least, forwards

• 75% of forwards that were analysed enjoyed a jump in their output as well.
• Surprisingly, Ricky Petterd was the best performer, increasing 31.1 points after joining Richmond.
• Worst performer was Chris Dawes, sliding -8.7 points after joining Melbourne. But are we at all surprised?

CONCLUSION

So what do we take from all of this analysis?

• Overall increase of 4.6 points after switching clubs
• 36 out of the 61 increased their average, and 16 of those increased by more than 10 points.
  
• Defenders don't generally increase, averaging a slide of -1.8 points.
• Midfielders generally perform better, averaging an increase of 7.6 points.
• Ruckmen are the best bet, with all but one analysed on the up. Overall increase of 6.6 points.
• Forwards are also performing well, increasing on an average of 5.9 points.

2015 PLAYER SPOTLIGHTS

So taking this all into account......based on this information:

• Nick Malceski should suffer a fall in average.
• Heath Shaw after suffering a fall in 2014, should see his average increase.
• Ryan Griffen should increase his average in 2015 after changing clubs.
• Dom Tyson and Jared Polec after enjoying an increase, should see their average fall in 2015.
• Jonathan Giles should see his average increase in 2015.
• Rhys Stanley should see his average increase in 2015.

I hope this has all been enlightening, and if anyone wants to see the data I collected, you need to only PM me for a copy.

Cheers and happy Supercoaching. :)

[Ricochet]

Very interesting mate, nice work. Will be interesting to see if top end premo's like Beams could improve further

[Nige]

Some really interesting stats here mate, I think it will be interesting to see how players who have changed club do perform. Guys like Levi Greenwood, who enjoyed his best year to date has now changed clubs and I personally am interested to see what effect that has on his output.

[Sven]

Some really interesting stats here mate, I think it will be interesting to see how players who have changed club do perform. Guys like Levi Greenwood, who enjoyed his best year to date has now changed clubs and I personally am interested to see what effect that has on his output.

Could definitely see his average increase, especially with Beams out of the equation.

Very interesting mate, nice work. Will be interesting to see if top end premo's like Beams could improve further

Mixed bag unfortunately. McEvoy and Shaw went down, whereas NDS, Goddard, Mumford, Franklin all went up.

[Grazz]

Nice work mate.  ;)

[Big Mac]

Yep well done mate

[AaronKirk]

Good stuff mate.

Shaw is in my back line so hopefully history continues.

[shaker]

Good stuff Sven well done for the effort in doing this , lot of variables in this like a different role at a new club or for Tyson and other younger players they were odds on to increase even if they had stayed at there club but great work  ;)

[Capper]

Great write up. Are you a journo?

Also what about guys that left for more game time like Armstrong, Lamb, White from the Swans

[RaisyDaisy]

Good stuff mate.

Shaw is in my back line so hopefully history continues.

[kilbluff1985]

nice read


just want to voice my point of view though

i don't think you can look into how past players have done at different clubs to much because each player is very different

what role they had at there old club

how old they are

what kind of list there new club has

does anyone at there new club have the role they would normally have

any injury concerns

not trying to undo your great work just saying there are so many variants

[RaisyDaisy]

All great points KB :)

Age and position would be significant factors, and I dare say that analysis drilled down to that level would highlight that

[Sven]

nice read


just want to voice my point of view though

i don't think you can look into how past players have done at different clubs to much because each player is very different

what role they had at there old club

how old they are

what kind of list there new club has

does anyone at there new club have the role they would normally have

any injury concerns

not trying to undo your great work just saying there are so many variants

No offense taken, they are all valid points.

Fully agree that there are so many different variants within our game, I was deliberately overlooking them all for the sake of the piece, just to see if there was any trend.

Great write up. Are you a journo?

Also what about guys that left for more game time like Armstrong, Lamb, White from the Swans

No, not a journo, just a passion for sport and statistics.

Answering your second part, Tony Armstrong went down in average after leaving Adelaide, but just as the trend I talked about, he then bounced back in his second season with the Swans.

2011 at Adelaide: 67.4
2012 at Sydney: 45.6
2013 at Sydney: 53.0

Jeb Lamb followed the same trend as forwards have and rose after leaving Sydney, however only slightly.

2013 at Sydney: 45.3
2014 at GWS: 46.1

Lastly, Jesse White was one that actually bucked the trend and decreased his average after leaving the Swans. Just goes to show you that not all things work out how statistics predict.

2013 at Sydney: 67.6
2014 at Collingwood: 61.7

Hope that helps!