Last Trade Help

[refchris]

Hey guys, first time posting on here and I'm slightly confused about what I should do.

I've taken a few gambles that have paid off in recent weeks but it has left me with 2 trades remaining.

I'm unsure about where to go with my last trades or when to use them as I'm on the cusp of the finals and need to win my last 2 games in order to make it in.

Here's my team: ($141k bank)
Def - Shaw (GWS), McDonald, Murphy, Higgins, Laird, Gibson (A Pearce, Hamling)
Mids - Hannebery, Kennedy (Syd), Beams, Dangerfield, Thompson, Ablett, Ward, Montagna (Robinson, Glenn, Brophy)
Ruck - Goldy, Maric (Cox)
Forw - Gray, Swan, Bontempelli, Mitchell, Gawn, Steele (Betts, Dale)

I really want to trade Eddie. He is one of my favourite players but I cannot see myself keeping him any longer than what I already have. He hasn't scored above 90 since Round 7 and has only scored 75+ once in the last 7 games. He has Gold Coast next week and I'm not sure if I should keep him because he does generally score well against them.
If I trade Eddie, I'll be bringing in Dahlhaus.

Maric on the other hand is getting worse for me. 14 games played and only 5 of those have been 100+ and one of those was against Goldy. I don't know if I should trade him, but if I do, I would be bringing Gawn from the forws into Ruck and trading in Roughhead or maybe Cripps or Kennedy from WC.

I am open to all opinions and will be taking everything seriously because I'm currently sitting 9th and will be sitting 9th after Round 17 with an easy win. Round 18 I am facing 6th and should jump to at least 7th if I beat him, but I am unsure if I will or not.

Thanks for taking the time to read!

-refchris

[GCSkiwi]

Welcome to the madhouse!

Tough spot you're in there. Betts and Maric both have 108 BE's so are likely to drop a bit in price. Roughy has a BE of 31 and Dahl 32 so are both going to go up. Which is a real pain because my suggestion is if you think this week is in the bag with your current team, then sit on your hands...

I would be aiming to leave it this week and then check out your round 18 opponent after this round the see what changes (if any) they've made. Your weak point is definitely that forward line but I'm not sure what you should really do with it. If you're low/no chance of making top 8 without trading then I would trade Betts now for Dahl and hold a trade for finals in case of injury. If there's a chance you could make it with your team as it is, I would leave it... My gut says probably trade though, good time to do it now financially and even if you make top 8 you'll be hard pressed to go very far with those fwds...

[refchris]

Thank you for the welcome! I look forward to asking a lot of "OH GOD WHAT DO I DO NOW?!" type questions in the future lol.

Atm my projected score with Goldy as C is 2577.

Only really had a good look at the team of the guy i'm playing in R18 now. I might be able to win without making a trade...

His team currently looks like this:

Def - Shaw (GWS), K Kolodjashnij, Rance, Docherty, Houli, Brown (Coloquhoun, McKenzie)
Mids - Pendleburry, Fyfe, Rockliff, Dangerfield, Cripps, Ablett (C), Miller, Rich (Ellis-Yolmen, Boston, Lambert)
Ruck - Naitanui, Blicavs (Wright)
Forw - Gray, Swan, Bontempelli, Mitchell, Hogan, Pavlich (Steele, Cox)

And in R16, I outscored him 2595 to 2371 and he doesn't have Goldy but we both have Ablett.

I'm still tempted to go Betts for Dahlhaus but do I take the gamble on Maric against Sandi and hope he doesn't drop in price?

Outlook for both guys (opp plyr in brackets):
Eddie - R17 GC (probably Day), R18 Syd (probably Rampe), R19 Rich (Rance or Houli), R20 Ess (probably Hurley)
Maric - R17 Freo (Sandi), R18 Hawks (McEvoy), R19 Adel (Jacobs), R20 GC (maybe Nicholls)

I still don't know if its worth keeping or getting rid of either player for the finals...

[GCSkiwi]

I'd look at it more along the lines of who you could get in, i.e. what it does overall for your team.

Option A) Get rid of Maric, Gawn to R2, Roughguts to F5, Steele still playing F6. Really in terms of premo power you're not going far, it's Maric to Roughy essentially. Roughy averaging 99 but he's a big swing player, he could go huge or he could crap out completely. There's 3 really big scores in there (145, 173, 150) making his average look good, he's averaging 82 from those other 10 games. Maric is averaging slightly less but is much more consistent - take out his 3 biggest scores like we did to Rough and he's still averaging 89. 11/14 games Maric has gone 80+, 9/13 games Roughy has gone 80+. So, considering it costs you the trade, I don't think you're really gaining anything.

Option B) Get rid of Betts, Dahl to F6, Steele to Bench. This gets you an extra premo on the field, and Dahl is really good value at the moment. Averaging 105, 5th highest fwd, and 25ppg better than Steele. The only reason I would hesitate to grab him is that it leaves you with 1 trade and about 25k to cover any injuries. But it's an excellent trade option in terms of how it adds to your team.

Your opponents team doesn't look very strong and I'd almost hazard a guess that they've run out of trades, considering CEY and Colq are still there. But maybe they're just playing a long game. With Brown, Cripps, Rich, Miller, and Hogan all on the field I think you've definitely got a stronger team overall... Kinda depends on how strong your league is my friend, I like the idea of Betts to Dahl but I don't like it only leaving you 1 trade, especially when Beams might be injured too so that might throw a spanner in the works...

[refchris]

Thanks for that but of awesome advice man!

After looking at everything I think Roughy is more of a gamble than having Maric. Almost like trying to trade in Franklin right now.

I might hold off on the Betts trade just in case Beams is out. If Beams is only out for 1 week then I can keep him, I've got an easy week If Beams is out longer than 2 weeks then I can ditch him. Its all on R18 that I have to worry about.

Thanks again for the feedback!

[refchris]

Here's a visual representation of my team atm. I've decided going against a trade, but I'm unsure where i go from here for next round. Just have to wait for results... And possibly hope Eddie kicks 10 straight with 30 disposals. Lol.

141k in the bank and 2 trades remaining.