Bully's Boys 2024

[Mat0369]

Dawson out is one I was thinking of looking at your structure, however he attended the most CBA's, had a high number of contested possessions but butchered it and gave away some frees on a wet night.  If he has a similar stat line again for a crap score I'd probably move him on.

Laird actually worries me a little looking at the CBA's but he still racked up the pill and the clearances. He only attended 10 of 19 CBA's which was good for 53% and was the one to make way for the younger guys.

Downside like you said is Flanders goes up in price this week, so does Rowell and they're the two that stand out in the forwards and in the midfield.

[Bully]

How did we rate Bonner's game? Two brain fades, a few clangers, a bit of dash but underwhelming for the most part. Tom Brown on extended bench, as is Lefau, those two might be possibilities. Lefau is surprisingly mobile for his size and might fill the Gibcus role, one to watch I think.

[Mat0369]

Not going near Bonner. I didn't watch the game closely, but the Sinclair inclusion obviously impacted him. One spot in particular is the kick-in numbers. He had 2 kick-in's this week compared to 8 last week. Milera had 8 last week and 1 this week. Sinclair took 4 this week which was over 50% of the share. I can't see Bonner getting 25 each week with both Sinclair and Nas vulturing around as well.

[Bully]

Dawson to Steele looking the opening move next week, I think Dawson is butchering the ball too much, long bombs to the likes of Stewart all night. This trade frees up 125k and doesn't compromise the bye structure to any great degree.

On watch are Gawn & Grundy, if the transition has to be made then next week is the perfect opening, Grundy's BE is 57 & Gawn's is 89, beyond next week that gap could really open up.

I have heard Curtin isn't too far away either, I reckon there will be a number of decent rookie options around the corner.

[Bully]

Grundy had a good second half, whether he can match Gawn in the long run is anyone's guess, I think there is plenty of merit to making the switch just for Gawn's VC ability but it might be hasty with such a small sample size. I still may do it but I'm seeing other solid opportunities which may be too hard to pass up.

Dawson to Steele looks good, Dawson to Serong also looks good, Dawson to Crouch for maximum cash has plenty of appeal.

Windsor to Powell I think is the pick of the trades from there, that will require 110k but with F6 needing some scoring power it could be season defining. Powell averaging 112 and has a pretty good chance of maintaining a 90+ average, he'll also qualify as a mid so DPP just around the corner.

The backline still looks rotten, I'm hoping Tom Brown has a good game, with Hore a vest candidate the last man standing could be Pink. I'm not even sure it's worth trading to be honest. I think I'd rather wait for Curtin or Ethan Phillips.

[Mat0369]

Dawson to Steele looking the opening move next week, I think Dawson is butchering the ball too much, long bombs to the likes of Stewart all night. This trade frees up 125k and doesn't compromise the bye structure to any great degree.

On watch are Gawn & Grundy, if the transition has to be made then next week is the perfect opening, Grundy's BE is 57 & Gawn's is 89, beyond next week that gap could really open up.

I have heard Curtin isn't too far away either, I reckon there will be a number of decent rookie options around the corner.

Grundy had a good second half, whether he can match Gawn in the long run is anyone's guess, I think there is plenty of merit to making the switch just for Gawn's VC ability but it might be hasty with such a small sample size. I still may do it but I'm seeing other solid opportunities which may be too hard to pass up.

Dawson to Steele looks good, Dawson to Serong also looks good, Dawson to Crouch for maximum cash has plenty of appeal.

Windsor to Powell I think is the pick of the trades from there, that will require 110k but with F6 needing some scoring power it could be season defining. Powell averaging 112 and has a pretty good chance of maintaining a 90+ average, he'll also qualify as a mid so DPP just around the corner.

The backline still looks rotten, I'm hoping Tom Brown has a good game, with Hore a vest candidate the last man standing could be Pink. I'm not even sure it's worth trading to be honest. I think I'd rather wait for Curtin or Ethan Phillips.

If Grundy could stop giving away free kicks that would be fantastic. I think the price difference between him and Gawn I'm holding off. If you don't think he is a keeper I'd consider trading down and grabbing Xerri who will make great coin and is the clear cut number one ruck for North. He had amazing chemistry with LDU and some of the clearance work where Xerri hit it directly to him in full motion was brilliant. With Grundy going up in dollars it is a move where you could pocket 100k.

Dawson's tackle numbers saved him from a disastrous score. He had 11 inside 50's, had a kicking efficiency of 55.6% and only two clangers. He is just not using the ball well enough by foot which is something he is known for. Having both Crouch and Laird in there may not be ideal for his scoring as well. Of the available options I would lean towards Crouch. He can easily be your M8 and comes at a discount price. I'm still meh on Steele after being burnt. Serong has had a monster two weeks. The other option is Green but he has the bye next week.

Looking at the 'rookies' (McKercher and under), I'm trying to make a list of the must have options that look like they can score decent enough

Backs

Howes

Dean was dropped, Dawson and Pink don't look like they will score well, Hore had the sub vest but with May and Lever both getting injured maybe he gets a run at it. Coffield won't be a great scoring option but may get a nod over the fact he is playing. James Trezise may be an expensive option with only one AFL game for sample size that could be a goer with all the Tigers injuries. Burgoyne may get the vest but he is another pricy option. Pretty bleak for now.

Mids

McKercher
Roberts
Sharp (bench)

Clark had an awful round 1 and okay round 2, Sanders looks like he could be a decent option if Bevo doesn't sub him out. I would probably add him to the list above. Carroll on the bubble but vest prone may be the best option for a corrective trade, but who do you downgrade/sideways trade to him?

Rucks

N/A

Naismith played one game and Barnett has actually been named this week with Moyle who is filling in for Witts. Barnett could be an options scoring pending?

Forwards

Reid
Wilson (ideally bench)
Sexton
Cadman


Berry is one in the forward line that looks like he will make a bunch of cash this week when goes up in price. Dempsey had the big round 1 followed by the down game this week while Mannagh had one good quarter. Duursma is pricey but scored well round 1, McInnes has the one game under his belt and may be a good bubble option. Lazzaro is expensive and was subbed so that is a pass. Guys like Seth Campbell/Windsor are good for the early price rise but may not be great scorers.

Powell attended the most CBA's of anyone on the ground, my worry is will Clarkson throw him more half forward but he looks like he can thrive in the role and is a good price. He is a pretty good stepping stone and probably a good option for someone like Fyfe who was subbed out today. I don't know if he is a break the bank type player. Lyons is the 260k mid I would be considering if he also keeps his role as someone easier to grab in the Windsor move.

[Bully]

The other option is Dawson to Sheezel, I haven't ruled that out either but most teams have 5 premo mids so I'm reluctant to weaken that area.

The reason Steele is appealing is I think he's over the niggles and back to full fitness, the stats back that up -

Round 1-16 (2023)

12 matches, only two tons (88.5 avg)

Round 17-23

8 matches, 6 tons (107 avg)

Continuing on this year that's now 10 matches (8 tons) & avg 109.5

Steele has enough credits in the bank to feel comfortable he's back to his best -

2020 - 122
2021 - 126
2022 - 109.8
2023 - 94.8

I personally prefer him to Crouch, I think he's a much better chance to move into that elite category, Crouch is also a Dawson destroyer, having Crouch in there places an ironclad ceiling on Dawson's scoring which prevents him from going 120+, that has been evident over the past 10 games or so, I think there's enough data to make some definitive calls on that count.

I'd love Green in the side, I strongly considered him but baulked due to the bye, he would be my first choice but I don't think I'll grab him this week.

[Mat0369]

If you could grab one of Sheez or Luke Ryan I'd be inclined to do that. Your backline looked thin with Williams and D'Ambrosio at D3 and D4 so that sures it up with the lack of rookies available on that line.

Jordan Clark is a left field pick that has had two excellent rounds but no history which is the worry at his price. He looks to have an SC friendly rebounding off HB

[Mat0369]

RE Steele from when I looked at him pre-season (copy past job)

Averaging 122.5 in 2020, 126 in 2021 and then declining to have a 109.8 and 94.8 the last two years. He did have a couple of injuries which probably contributed to that dip, particularly in 2022 where he averaged close to 120 over the first 7, but last year also felt like a bit of regression and he was struggling to really impact games. He still showcased his ceiling with a 140 and 160, but there were 13 games he had under 25 touches and 2 that he had under 15. I personally will not be starting him, he is under-priced for what he is capable of, but he was also under-priced last year and regressed. Pass for me.


Crouch was dropped for the Pies game and Windhager was the other inside mid and killed it with contested possessions and clearances. Steele did have a whopping 11 tackles which isn't sustainable and seems to be sitting around that 25 to 26 touch mark in both games. In his elite seasons he hovered around the 30 and his scoring was mediocre generally under 25 touches. If I'm going a mid I'm still taking Crouch and the cash over him

[Bully]

If you could grab one of Sheez or Luke Ryan I'd be inclined to do that. Your backline looked thin with Williams and D'Ambrosio at D3 and D4 so that sures it up with the lack of rookies available on that line.

Jordan Clark is a left field pick that has had two excellent rounds but no history which is the worry at his price. He looks to have an SC friendly rebounding off HB

If I do that I'll need one of Powell or Lyons, I can move Flanders to M5 and bring in Powell to the forward line. I agree, the backline looks sickly, if the Tigers in the frame fail to fire my hand maybe forced.

I have never owned Ryan, I think it's the fact he can be played in the lockdown role from time to time, Sheezel would appear to be the more consistent and he also provides a bit of spare change to fix some other areas.

[Bully]

Coffield shoulder, this is carnage, have to pick Sheezel now.

[Bully]

I think the backline has to be priority, even though Butters is tempting me I can't see any safe rookies to ride out the injuries so best to seal this up with a premo like Sheezel. Tom Brown might be an option, if Hore scores 60 he'll be the same price, Trezise another who could fill the spot, albeit an expensive option at 207k.

This week was ok, moved up to 50k with a 2019, Powell looks like a decent gamble, I'm quietly hoping he's a breakout contender but worst case scenario is a 400k stepping stone to a top 6 mid or forward.

Very pleased I didn't fall for the Berry hype, Billings easily the better choice and should also push to 400k in due course.

Next week I'll replace Coffield, I think I'll hold Reid, he's due back in round 6, I can't see the point wasting a trade on a player like Pink, not worth it when he probably crawls to 250k.

[Mat0369]

At least 3 premium defenders is a must right now. It's unfortunate, but the rookies have all been bitten by the injury bug or are key defenders that won't score well.

Powell should make decent coin, if he flops this week you'll at least get a decent price rise and can flip him straight to a rookie like Darcy next week. I like Lyons as a similar option that is cheaper, but Powell will make more coin quicker and if he keeps up the scoring he could be another Simpkin when he was a forward and turn into a premium option.

Carroll is a great rookie pick, only thing to keep an eye on is the Walsh return date. He will be the one pushed out and either return to the sub role or back to the VFL.

Worner for Freo could be another option with the defenders. He looked good before the concussion and could be on the bubble at the right time in a couple of weeks.

[Bully]

Lyons could be on borrowed time, Brisbane very one paced at the moment, I also think aiming for a high scoring forward makes much better sense.

Fyfe to Darcy will be 200k in the kitty, I'll be pulling all stops to get Green in next week, I almost feel this might be the last chance before he gets too expensive, the damage only 30k so far but acceptable given the extra premo I'll be running with this week.

Harley Reid will probably be punted next week unless there's some indication he can run out an entire game, the only first year guy proving his worth has been McKercher, the rest overpriced and being outscored by penny dreadfuls like Thomas. Sanders may join him as an astute pick but still needs to back up his nearly ton.

[Mat0369]

Lyons could be on borrowed time, Brisbane very one paced at the moment, I also think aiming for a high scoring forward makes much better sense.

Fyfe to Darcy will be 200k in the kitty, I'll be pulling all stops to get Green in next week, I almost feel this might be the last chance before he gets too expensive, the damage only 30k so far but acceptable given the extra premo I'll be running with this week.

Harley Reid will probably be punted next week unless there's some indication he can run out an entire game, the only first year guy proving his worth has been McKercher, the rest overpriced and being outscored by penny dreadfuls like Thomas. Sanders may join him as an astute pick but still needs to back up his nearly ton.

And he was dropped. A little surprised but he couldn't really get going in their last game.