Note on edits:
Struck text means that option is no longer possibly.
Bold text means that it is now a lock.
I decided to go to the Ladder Predictor (http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor) to see if anything could change too much in the last three weeks. I assumed that nothing extreme could happen and I was very, very wrong.
Firstly, I'll highlight the games that make huge differences to the top 8:
Round 21Hawks vs. Pies
RESULT - Hawks win
Tigers vs. Blues
RESULT - Blues win
Bombers vs. Roos
RESULT - Roos win
Round 22Cats vs. Swans
RESULT - Cats win
Blues vs. Bombers
RESULT - Bombers win
Round 23Swans vs. Hawks
Power vs. Blues
Bombers vs. Tigers
Just by changing the results of those games (everything else has been deemed a certainty or irrelevant to finals structure - obviously, huge upsets can happen, but I'm assuming they won't), the top 8 can change drastically.
Note: (%) means that the ladder position will be decided on percentage and is currently close enough to be taken into consideration.
If Blues win all three, they finish 8th. Otherwise, Power finish 8th.- If Swans lose both of those games, they can finish:
6th if Pies beat Hawks AND either Tigers beat Blues and Bombers or Bombers win all three.5th if the above happens but Pies lose to Hawks OR the winner of Tigers/Bombers loses a different game.- 4th if the Pies lose to the Hawks AND the winner of Tigers/Bombers loses a different game.
- If Swans lose to Cats but beat Hawks, or vice versa, they finish 4th.
If Swans win both, they can finish:
2nd or 3rd (%) if Hawks beat Pies. In this case, Fremantle finishes 2nd or 3rd as well.1st or 2nd (%) if Pies beat Hawks. In this case, Fremantle finishes 1st or 2nd as well.
If Pies beat Hawks, they can finish:
5th if Swans win one of those games.4th if Swans lose both.
- If Pies lose to Hawks, they can finish:
6th if Tigers win both or Bombers win all three.- 5th or 6th (%) if Tigers win one.
- 5th otherwise.
If Cats lose to Swans, they can finish:
3rd if Hawks beat Swans.4th if Swans beat Hawks.
- If Cats beat Swans, they can finish:
- 2nd if Hawks win both.
- 1st or 2nd (%) if Hawks beat one of Pies and Swans.
1st if Hawks lose both.
- If Hawks beat at least one of Pies and Swans, they finish 1st (if they win both), 1st or 2nd (%) (if they win one)
If Hawks lose to both Pies and Swans, they finish 3rd.If Bombers win all three, they can finish:
4th if Pies lose to Hawks and Swans lose both.5th if Pies beat Hawks OR Swans win one.6th if Pies beat Hawks AND Swans win one.
- If Bombers beat Tigers but lose another game, they can finish:
- 6th if Tigers lose to Blues.
7th if Tigers beat Blues.
- In all other cases, Bombers finish 7th.
If Tigers beat Blues and Bombers, they can finish:
6th if Pies beat Hawks and Swans beat at least one of Hawks and Cats.5th if Pies beat Hawks but Swans lose to one of Hawks and Cats.4th or 5th (%) if Pies lose to Hawks but Swans beat one of Hawks and Cats.4th if Pies lose to Hawks AND Swans lose to both Hawks and Cats.
- If Tigers beat Bombers but lose to Blues, they can finish:
6th if Pies beat Hawks.- 5th or 6th (%) if Pies lose to Hawks.
If Tigers beat Blues but lose to Bombers, they can finish:
7th if Bombers win all three and Pies beat Hawks.6th if Bombers lose any game but Pies beat Hawks.5th or 6th (%) if Bombers lose any game and Pies lose to Hawks.
- If Tigers lose both, they can finish:
- 7th if Bombers beat Blues or Roos.
- 6th if Bombers lose to both Blues and Roos.
If I've stuffed up any of the above, please let me know :)
This means, the ladder positions could be filled by any of the following... CRAZY!
- Hawks, Cats,
Swans, Dockers - Hawks, Cats,
Swans, Dockers Hawks, Cats, Swans, DockersCats, Swans, Pies, Tigers, BombersSwans, Pies, Tigers, BombersSwans, Pies, Tigers, Bombers- Tigers, Bombers
- Power,
Blues
Again, if I've made any mistakes, let me know. Discuss!
P.s. CARN THE TIGES!
1. Geelong 72
2. Freo 70
3. Hawthorn 68
4. Sydney 66
5. Pies 64
6. Tigers 62
7. Bombers 62
8. Port 52
Tipped a draw for bombers-tigers #yolo
I don't think it matters where you put the bombers
Quote from: Mailman the 2nd on August 11, 2013, 11:39:36 PM
I don't think it matters where you put the bombers
This is probably true but I'm almost certain they're going to finish 7th anyway. 6th at best...
ok so i had a go at this
http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor
I was going to make a thread regarding the ladder predictor last week but forgot. Any close matches went to the Home team
So i have got
R21
Hawks over Pies, Port over Suns, Tigers over Blues, Dons over North, Cats over Eagle, Lions over Giants, Dockers over Dees, Swans over Saints, Crows over Dogs
R22
Pies over Eagle, Crows over Dees, Hawks over Roos, Cats over Swans, Dockers over Port, Blues over Dons, Suns over Saints, Tigers over Giants, Lions over Dogs
R23
Hawks over Swans, Dockers over Saints, Cats over Lions, Power over Blues, Eagles over Crows, Tigers over Dons, Suns over Giants, Pies over Roos, Dogs over Dees
For a final 8 of
| Team | Wins | Points |
| Hawks | 19 | 76 |
| Cats | 18 | 72 |
| Dockers | 17 | 70 |
| Tigers | 16 | 64 |
| Swans | 15 | 62 |
| Pies | 15 | 60 |
| Dons | 15 | 60 |
| Port | 13 | 52 |
But.....
If the Swans beat the Saints and Hawks and lose to Cats, then Swans and Tigers swap
If the Swans beat the Saints and Cats and lose to Hawks, then Swans and Tigers swap as well as Freo and Cats
If the Swans beat the Saints, Hawks and Cats, then Swans finish 2nd, Freo 3rd, Cats 4th, Tigers 5th. Swans then play Freo ad Hawks play Cats
A Richmond vs Essendon R23 match up into a Richmond vs Essendon Elimination Final back-to-back would be pretty epic! :o
Just going to say some things I need to say. :P
Richmond really are a damaging side now and I reckon they will do pretty well in September.
Pies at full strength are lethal and Beams is a big part of the team's success and Daisy back aswell soon is frightening.
If Freo make Top 2 as I think they will, tough to beat at home.They will need to finish Top 2 to have a good shot at the flag.
Although I don't think Swans will finish Top 2, that loss to Collingwood is nothing to worry about. They are very capable.
Bombers I don't think can cause much damage at all come finals if they even play with all this ASADA stuff going on.
Geelong are Geelong and should finish on top and I reckon they will.
Cheers :)
Yeah, I gotta say as a Tigers supporter I really do not want to see the boys have to face off against Collingwood in week one of the finals - they are looking deadly at the moment!
Two weeks ago with their under-par performances against GC and GWS, anyone would have said they are screwed.
But they looked very good against Essendon and Sydney and their next two should set them up well.
In saying that the Tiges are looking good too. Proved they can beat top sides in Fremantle and Hawthorn.
I called it at the start of the season that Essendon would finish 6th or 7th, looks like that might happen. :o
Thought the Tiges would finish 8th though, but that's unlikely. Instead, we're a sneaky chance for top 4! :o
Very, very confident that we won't lose to both the Hawks and the Cats.
Who did you have for 9th and 10th, Tabs ?
Quote from: My Chumps on August 12, 2013, 05:25:14 PM
Very, very confident that we won't lose to both the Hawks and the Cats.
I'm thinking that you won't either. But I'm so hoping that you do ;)
Quote from: vinny on August 12, 2013, 05:31:24 PM
Who did you have for 9th and 10th, Tabs ?
i didnt change margins so they are all set to 12 points
9th-12th on 40 points, so on percentage
Carlton
Adelaide
West Coast
Brisbane
Pies will win the flag, regardless of where they finish on the table.
Quote from: PowerBug on August 12, 2013, 10:57:47 PM
Pies will win the flag, regardless of where they finish on the table.
lol.
Ladder:
1. Hawks
2. Fremantle
3. Cats
4. Sydney
5. Richmond
6. Collingwood
7. Essendon
8. Port
-----------------------
9. West Coast
10. Adelaide
11. Carlton
12. North
Well i said it from the start of the year, not going to lose faith now :P
As long as Port play a melbourne side i'm happy. Idc about the rest coz i'm allowed to go to Melbourne to watch them play a final, but not Sydney or Perth. :D
I've updated the front post after this weekend's results. Things are looking a lot clearer now!
Has anyone seen the AFL's finals "crystal ball"?
They've tipped it to be:
5. Richmond
6. Collingwood
7. Essendon
8. Port Adelaide
But they're listing the probable finals matchups as: Richmond vs Essendon, Collingwood vs PA. Isn't this wrong, doesn't 5th play 8th, 6th play 7th? ???
Might be wrong...
Quote from: Toga on August 19, 2013, 12:19:46 PM
Has anyone seen the AFL's finals "crystal ball"?
They've tipped it to be:
5. Richmond
6. Collingwood
7. Essendon
8. Port Adelaide
But they're listing the probable finals matchups as: Richmond vs Essendon, Collingwood vs PA. Isn't this wrong, doesn't 5th play 8th, 6th play 7th? ???
Might be wrong...
yes you are correct
The order they have is the current ladder order but they've actually said that they predict Essendon to finish 8th and Port 7th (if you read the text).
However, that's nonsense, as I don't think Port's % can catch Essendon's so Port should finish 8th.
The Crowvertiser (Adelaide's local newspaper) says the possible fixture for the first week of finals is Collingwood vs Essendon and Richmond vs Carlton.
Technically they are correct, but if the Crows were two games clear in the eight with 2 to play, they wouldn't have written something like this...
Final updates made... I think most things are set now.
Geelong can still finish top if the Swans beat the Hawks.
Freo locked in 3rd, Swans 4th, Power 8th. Tigers should finish 5th if they win but 7th if they lose. Pies either 5th or 6th. Bombers either 6th or 7th.
Quote from: LaHug on August 25, 2013, 08:18:48 PM
Final updates made... I think most things are set now.
Geelong can still finish top if the Swans beat the Hawks.
Freo locked in 3rd, Swans 4th, Power 8th. Tigers should finish 5th if they win but 7th if they lose. Pies either 5th or 6th. Bombers 18th.
:(
Quote from: Sid on August 25, 2013, 08:22:01 PM
Quote from: LaHug on August 25, 2013, 08:18:48 PM
Final updates made... I think most things are set now.
Geelong can still finish top if the Swans beat the Hawks.
Freo locked in 3rd, Swans 4th, Power 8th. Tigers should finish 5th if they win but 7th if they lose. Pies either 5th or 6th. Bombers 18th.
:(
If Richmond finish 5th, I want Essendon to keep their points so we can take on Port at the MCG. If Richmond finish 6th or 7th, I want them to lose their points so we can take on Port at the MCG.
Quote from: LaHug on August 25, 2013, 08:36:52 PM
Quote from: Sid on August 25, 2013, 08:22:01 PM
Quote from: LaHug on August 25, 2013, 08:18:48 PM
Final updates made... I think most things are set now.
Geelong can still finish top if the Swans beat the Hawks.
Freo locked in 3rd, Swans 4th, Power 8th. Tigers should finish 5th if they win but 7th if they lose. Pies either 5th or 6th. Bombers 18th.
:(
If Richmond finish 5th, I want Essendon to keep their points so we can take on Port at the MCG. If Richmond finish 6th or 7th, I want them to lose their points so we can take on Port at the MCG.
This is what I'm thinking too LaHug.
I'd rather play Port then Carlton or North.
Well I'd rather play Richmond, so yeah, take that. :P
Quote from: PowerBug on August 25, 2013, 08:54:59 PM
Well I'd rather play Richmond, so yeah, take that. :P
Haha :P
I'm just saying we get more of an advantage, playing the Power over at the G then playing Carlton or North there.
Definitely. Home ground advantage would be very nice! We don't really get that against a Melbourne team.
Yeah, I don't want us to play Carlton or North, Port's the team we have to face.
You might face (heaven forbid) the crows in the finals! D: Entirely why I might be seen in a Carlton guernsey this weekend at the match :P
So have your blokes remembered to cancel the September holiday they book at the start of every year? :P #banter
I'd much rather us face off against Port or Adelaide to be honest, we matched up really well on both those teams earlier in the year, and yeah HGA will be much more pronounced against a non-Vic team.
Really hoping for another upset by Brissie this weekend.
If Richmond finish 5th and essendon lose points who would you rather face in finals - Carlton, Port, West Coast, North, Adelaide or Brisbane. I will be in a Port Jersey PB especially if we have beaten Geelong as Brisbane can not be overtaken for 8th if Port beat Carlton,
hard task for Brisbane to beat Geelong, But will Geelong want to face Freemantle or Sydney which may decide on team they put out.
I'd probably rather face Port, Adelaide, Brisbane or WC out of the teams you've listed their Ringo. Think Carlton & NM would both be 50/50's for us, but I'd feel much more confident against any of those other teams.
I agree with Toga. Any interstate team at the MCG is big for us.
Will you get the MCG if you are playing Port?
Who will get the Etihad game? Say it's these matchups:
Hawks vs Swans
Cats vs Dockers
Tigers vs Blues
Magpies vs Power
All my mates reckon the Cats vs Freo game would be the Etihad one, but I think it'll be the Collingwood Port one, as that is the lowest ranked final of the lot.. :\ How do you guys see it.
Quote from: PowerBug on August 26, 2013, 08:03:38 PM
Will you get the MCG if you are playing Port?
Who will get the Etihad game? Say it's these matchups:
Hawks vs Swans
Cats vs Dockers
Tigers vs Blues
Magpies vs Power
All my mate reckon the Cats vs Freo game would be the Etihad one, but I think it'll be the Collingwood Port one, as that is the lowest ranked final of the lot.. :\ How do you guys see it.
Why not 4 MCG games...?
Is there some rule that Etihad has to have one?
Not possible to have Sat arvo and Sat night at the MCG. Might be timewise and I swear i've seen it happen before like 10 years ago in the season, but it's not going to happen. one of the saturday games will be at Etihad. :)
Yeah I think the "lower place" final would be at Etihad.
Collingwood final at Etihad? Somehow I think not.
Geelong v Fremantle, surely.
When was the last time that all 4 games in the first week of finals were played in Melbourne??
A 2 minute investigation leads me to believe it's yet to happen under the current finals system. :o
Quote from: Sid on August 27, 2013, 11:04:11 AM
Collingwood final at Etihad? Somehow I think not.
Geelong v Fremantle, surely.
Wouldn't be at SS?
Quote from: Toga on August 27, 2013, 02:06:51 PM
Quote from: Sid on August 27, 2013, 11:04:11 AM
Collingwood final at Etihad? Somehow I think not.
Geelong v Fremantle, surely.
Wouldn't be at SS?
Nope, AFL have already said there wont be games at Skilled Stadium
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/the-afl-is-investigating-if-the-mcg-could-host-four-finals-next-week/story-e6frf3du-1226704132543#.Uhwl_htkN8E
So it looks like we're going to have a double Swans vs Hawks. Thoughts about an aggregate scoring system??? Haha
Quote from: Cicjose on August 27, 2013, 02:13:53 PM
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/the-afl-is-investigating-if-the-mcg-could-host-four-finals-next-week/story-e6frf3du-1226704132543#.Uhwl_htkN8E
Well I would have thought that it would be almost impossible for them to schedule something like this. It would be extremely hard with rooms, ticketing and the lot.
I still think the Cats Freo game will be moved to Etihad as neither team has MCG as their home ground.
No way that Tigers or Pies will be moved from the G and Hawthorn finishing on top would also get a game there.