FanFooty Forum

Been a lot of love lost for Swan and Gazza for some outragous reason, wanted to get some numbers on it.

you have to start with one of the two. The captain bonus means you're essentially getting a free 10+ ppg by having one of them in your starting side.

Quote from: Ziplock on December 18, 2012, 01:04:16 AM
you have to start with one of the two. The captain bonus means you're essentially getting a free 10+ ppg by having one of them in your starting side.

right on the money, having one as cap is essentially aother king premo!

Provided both stay fit and their mid role doesn't change, which I think both are possible to change, the money I save gets me an axtra gun somewhere else and should have both after the byes anyway

I'm locking both in.

I'm not gonna do all this fancy shower and start without one to save a bit of cash, I will be having both pumping me out 130+ from the start.

GAJ only at the moment, Swan turns it on more in the 2nd half of the year. He does have big scores in the first half but has a better run of it in the 2nd.

Why GAJ?? Have a look at his draw, you're welcome

Quote from: Adamant on December 18, 2012, 01:36:56 AM
I'm locking both in.

I'm not gonna do all this fancy shower and start without one to save a bit of cash, I will be having both pumping me out 130+ from the start.

+1

Did it last year and I'll do it again this year.  These two have been kings over the past few years, so I can never understand how people can come to the conclusion that they will suddenly not be fantasy relevant.  Even if Swan does drop from last yeah he'll still probably average 120 for the season and GAJ won't be that far behind, and if he's not he'll be in front.

Quote from: Chelskiman on December 18, 2012, 01:57:57 AM

Quote from: Adamant on December 18, 2012, 01:36:56 AM
I'm locking both in.

I'm not gonna do all this fancy shower and start without one to save a bit of cash, I will be having both pumping me out 130+ from the start.

+1

Did it last year and I'll do it again this year.  These two have been kings over the past few years, so I can never understand how people can come to the conclusion that they will suddenly not be fantasy relevant.  Even if Swan does drop from last yeah he'll still probably average 120 for the season and GAJ won't be that far behind, and if he's not he'll be in front.

You speak sense.

Everyone knows they want Swan & Ablett eventually and that trying to get them into their side at some point is a pain in the ass. Better to just start with both and round out your mids with lesser types.

if you had both and they only averaged 100 after the first 3 games you will be spewing, down 100,000-200,000$ and everyone will bring them in week for. can't see there price going up so think il wait. maybe one

Quote from: youl_R_FCK on December 18, 2012, 08:41:05 AM
if you had both and they only averaged 100 after the first 3 games you will be spewing, down 100,000-200,000$ and everyone will bring them in week for. can't see there price going up so think il wait. maybe one

yeah and if you dont have both or even one of them and they average 150 over the first 3 delete your team :)


Im 100% starting ablett and will try and fit swanny in if i have the cash.

Locked and loaded

swablett? I'd have called him Abwan!

Have to start both
for those who aren't, who is the 3rd or 4rth mid you are replacing them with?

Quote from: Ricochet on December 18, 2012, 11:13:40 AM
Have to start both
for those who aren't, who is the 3rd or 4rth mid you are replacing them with?

probably Ablett Pendles Murphy and Stanton/Cotchin/Mundy

Quote from: Holzman on December 18, 2012, 11:54:52 AM

Quote from: Ricochet on December 18, 2012, 11:13:40 AM
Have to start both
for those who aren't, who is the 3rd or 4rth mid you are replacing them with?

probably Ablett Pendles Murphy and Stanton/Cotchin/Mundy

Yeh i think with only Stanton or Cotchin people will be ok.
Anyone else and you'll be leaking 10-20 points a week at least

I don't think many people will have both when you find out how much it will cost you!
Swan $688,100 + Ablett $642,500 = $1.33 million.
Thats a big chunck of cash out of the budget.

GAJ only for me atm... Just too expensive to start with both I think, it'd be around 1.3 mil for both of them! :-\

Really want to try fit swanny in there somehow but i'll wait and see.

How about Beams?

Quote from: Barra on December 18, 2012, 03:24:04 PM
How about Beams?

yeah was just thinking that, for $80K less I'd be tempted to start beams over swan... do you think their average will be similar?

Quote from: Toga on December 18, 2012, 03:27:30 PM

Quote from: Barra on December 18, 2012, 03:24:04 PM
How about Beams?

yeah was just thinking that, for $80K less I'd be tempted to start beams over swan... do you think their average will be similar?

No. Swan will average 125-135
Beams will be around the 110-115 mark with ball back into the collingwood midfield

Cannot find room for him ATM.

GAJ, Pendles, Watson, Redden, Ball & Embley.  :-\

I chose Stanton + Embley over Swan + Hrovat(or other rookie)

couldnt even fit ablett in :/

Quote from: Ziplock on December 19, 2012, 12:18:18 AM
couldnt even fit ablett in :/

That'll change.  It's early days yet so it's exciting to see who we can put into our teams, but at the end of the day you will fit Ablett into your starting line up. ;)

I'm starting with both, but I can't believe more people are starting Ablett over Swan. If I had to go one, it would be Swanny.

I just feel safer with him in my team over Ablett for some reason.

Quote from: Scrads on December 18, 2012, 11:25:56 PM
I chose Stanton + Embley over Swan + Hrovat(or other rookie)

im hopeful that jobe and goddard will get a tag before stanton, so we might hopefully see some big scores early

Done some tinkering and got him in. I always start with Swan, so I had to find a way to get him in.  :P

I just don't know how I could fit both of them in... I've chucked together a team (with GAJ only) and can't see how I would be able to fit Swanny in without:

a) Starting 3 rookie backs
b) Starting 4 rookie mids
c) Starting 2-3 rookie forwards

It basically means I'm gonna have to cut the mid-pricers outta my forward line or cut a premium out of my defence... Is it worth it? ???

Quote from: Toga on December 19, 2012, 10:45:31 AM
I just don't know how I could fit both of them in... I've chucked together a team (with GAJ only) and can't see how I would be able to fit Swanny in without:

a) Starting 3 rookie backs
b) Starting 4 rookie mids
c) Starting 2-3 rookie forwards

It basically means I'm gonna have to cut the mid-pricers outta my forward line or cut a premium out of my defence... Is it worth it? ???

yes

Absolutley, -1 down back for me.
My way of thinking is- i am unsure who will be the last top 3 defenders
                              - there are and prob will be more after nab, rookie choices in def.
                              - Who would you prefer to gamble with Ablett or Broughton?

Quote from: Toga on December 19, 2012, 10:45:31 AM
I just don't know how I could fit both of them in... I've chucked together a team (with GAJ only) and can't see how I would be able to fit Swanny in without:

a) Starting 3 rookie backs
b) Starting 4 rookie mids
c) Starting 2-3 rookie forwards

It basically means I'm gonna have to cut the mid-pricers outta my forward line or cut a premium out of my defence... Is it worth it? ???

I did some re jigging just now and now have got Swan &GAJ in.

Starting 2 rookies in mids, 2 in backs & one forward. If you count Staker or Maccaffer as rookies.  :P

trying soo hard to upgrade redden to him.

Strugling to find the cash

Gibbs Goddard Broughton Grimes lcoked down back and Thomas Martin SJ Rocky locked up front the rest are rookie. Just cant see where the money can come from.

Which would you prefer 8)

Option 1:
          Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Grimes, Broughton, Goodes, Terlich (Docherty, Colquhon)
          Mids: Ablett, Cotchin, Pendles, Murphy, Fyfe, Wines, O'Meara, Lonergan (Viney, Hunter)

Option 2:
          Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Grimes, Goodes, Terlich, Vlastuin (Docherty, Colquhon)
          Mids: Swan, Ablett, Cotchin, Pendles, Murphy, Wines, O'Meara, Lonergan (Viney, Hunter)


Tbh I think Option 1 looks a lot nicer :-\

Quote from: Toga on December 19, 2012, 11:19:08 AM
Which would you prefer 8)

Option 1:
          Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Grimes, Broughton, Goodes, Terlich (Docherty, Colquhon)
          Mids: Ablett, Cotchin, Pendles, Murphy, Fyfe, Wines, O'Meara, Lonergan (Viney, Hunter)

Option 2:
          Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Grimes, Goodes, Terlich, Vlastuin (Docherty, Colquhon)
          Mids: Swan, Ablett, Cotchin, Pendles, Murphy, Wines, O'Meara, Lonergan (Viney, Hunter)


Tbh I think Option 1 looks a lot nicer :-\

Option 1 and thats basically my team except i have redden over fyfe.

Quote from: Holzman on December 19, 2012, 11:22:02 AM

Quote from: Toga on December 19, 2012, 11:19:08 AM
Which would you prefer 8)

Option 1:
          Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Grimes, Broughton, Goodes, Terlich (Docherty, Colquhon)
          Mids: Ablett, Cotchin, Pendles, Murphy, Fyfe, Wines, O'Meara, Lonergan (Viney, Hunter)

Option 2:
          Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Grimes, Goodes, Terlich, Vlastuin (Docherty, Colquhon)
          Mids: Swan, Ablett, Cotchin, Pendles, Murphy, Wines, O'Meara, Lonergan (Viney, Hunter)


Tbh I think Option 1 looks a lot nicer :-\

Option 1 and thats basically my team except i have redden over fyfe.

Yeah that's what I think, i'll be losing far too much to get swan in :'(

Quote from: Toga on December 19, 2012, 11:25:31 AM

Quote from: Holzman on December 19, 2012, 11:22:02 AM

Quote from: Toga on December 19, 2012, 11:19:08 AM
Which would you prefer 8)

Option 1:
          Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Grimes, Broughton, Goodes, Terlich (Docherty, Colquhon)
          Mids: Ablett, Cotchin, Pendles, Murphy, Fyfe, Wines, O'Meara, Lonergan (Viney, Hunter)

Option 2:
          Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Grimes, Goodes, Terlich, Vlastuin (Docherty, Colquhon)
          Mids: Swan, Ablett, Cotchin, Pendles, Murphy, Wines, O'Meara, Lonergan (Viney, Hunter)


Tbh I think Option 1 looks a lot nicer :-\

Option 1 and thats basically my team except i have redden over fyfe.

Yeah that's what I think, i'll be losing far too much to get swan in :'(

Broughon 90 Fyfe 105 or Swan 130 Vlaustin 70

actually by that im thinking Swan. depedns really how you rate each player.

I'm a bit worried Vlas won't have good JS until Newy retires though... Hard choice!

Anyways sorry for hijacking the thread, I'll have a think about it! :)

I got Swanny in the team.

For me its Cotchin + Redden/Stanton of Swan + Mundy/Fyfe

Quote from: Holzman on December 19, 2012, 11:48:14 AM
I got Swanny in the team.

For me its Cotchin + Redden/Stanton of Swan + Mundy/Fyfe

tbh i reckon fyfe will go 105+ this year so wouldn't be too bad an option imo

Remember to add the bonus captain points from Swan as well there. I always feel that my team feels so much better with Ablett and Swan. I would only consider dropping one if I was confident someone like Pendles, Cotchin of even Stanton could step up to fill the captains role if an injury was to strike the marquee player

Quote from: Ajax22 on December 19, 2012, 01:00:58 PM
Remember to add the bonus captain points from Swan as well there. I always feel that my team feels so much better with Ablett and Swan. I would only consider dropping one if I was confident someone like Pendles, Cotchin of even Stanton could step up to fill the captains role if an injury was to strike the marquee player

yeah thats exactly why you need 1. I like going both just so you can pick the best one between the two. My rule is i chose however between the two calvin rates higher.

Doing that last year got me a 135 captain average. Have decided on goign 2 for that reason.

Assuming the two greats won't match their 012 averages early, then they could drop well inder 600k hopefully

I also believe their roles could change, often Swan was left forward in last quarters in 012

so... I'm trying to come up with a plan to get them once they drop nicely

How about starting with say the likes of, Fyfe, Wallis, Ball, Embly, Ziebell etc and...
Wait for them to rise nicely then up-grade to the dropping Swabblett?

Could also have Bock, Varcoe, Knights etc to make the money quick and early

Does that sound silly, remember 30 trades now!

Quote from: tbagrocks on December 19, 2012, 06:11:03 PM
Assuming the two greats won't match their 012 averages early, then they could drop well inder 600k hopefully

I also believe their roles could change, often Swan was left forward in last quarters in 012

so... I'm trying to come up with a plan to get them once they drop nicely

How about starting with say the likes of, Fyfe, Wallis, Ball, Embly, Ziebell etc and...
Wait for them to rise nicely then up-grade to the dropping Swabblett?

Could also have Bock, Varcoe, Knights etc to make the money quick and early

Does that sound silly, remember 30 trades now!

I don't think people are worried about how much they will drop in price... but if you start with neither, you will be way down the rankings when most people have them as captain pumping out 150+. Imagine lining up against someone with Swan and GAJ, and you have one or neither... scary thought.

Quote from: Adamant on December 19, 2012, 07:03:50 PM

Quote from: tbagrocks on December 19, 2012, 06:11:03 PM
Assuming the two greats won't match their 012 averages early, then they could drop well inder 600k hopefully

I also believe their roles could change, often Swan was left forward in last quarters in 012

so... I'm trying to come up with a plan to get them once they drop nicely

How about starting with say the likes of, Fyfe, Wallis, Ball, Embly, Ziebell etc and...
Wait for them to rise nicely then up-grade to the dropping Swabblett?

Could also have Bock, Varcoe, Knights etc to make the money quick and early

Does that sound silly, remember 30 trades now!

I don't think people are worried about how much they will drop in price... but if you start with neither, you will be way down the rankings when most people have them as captain pumping out 150+. Imagine lining up against someone with Swan and GAJ, and you have one or neither... scary thought.

++1

Quote from: tbagrocks on December 19, 2012, 06:11:03 PM
Assuming the two greats won't match their 012 averages early, then they could drop well inder 600k hopefully

I also believe their roles could change, often Swan was left forward in last quarters in 012

so... I'm trying to come up with a plan to get them once they drop nicely

How about starting with say the likes of, Fyfe, Wallis, Ball, Embly, Ziebell etc and...
Wait for them to rise nicely then up-grade to the dropping Swabblett?

Could also have Bock, Varcoe, Knights etc to make the money quick and early

Does that sound silly, remember 30 trades now!

I think I'll be starting with Fyfey tbag, and definitely looking at that strategy! Ablett's locked in, I just have to decide whether I start Swan or do as you say and try do that early upgrade... I think it could definitely be pulled off.

Also, people saying that it's good to have those two captain's options week in week out, what about Pendles? He's locked in my side and remembering back to 2011 he was a popular captain's choice frequently talked about by Calvin and co.

The massive floor in my plan is, Ablett starts every season on fire with hugely unmatched scores, I might need to ulter my plans and start with the master! As for Swan, he normally blossams latter

Quote from: tbagrocks on December 19, 2012, 06:11:03 PM
Does that sound silly, remember 30 trades now!

Yes it does, because you have 30 trades you can start with 2 and make up the lost cash (assuming they do drop :O) and cut rookies earlier and get a couple more on the bubble, more price rises. :)

Atm i'm starting with both, and 4 other premiums.

I reckon it's good to go with Beams and Cotchin over SwAblett. To find a quick way of valuation for players I like to add together three variables; previous season average (risk evaluation), 2013 predicted average (scoring evaluation) and the difference between these, improvement (cash value) then when comparing take into account the price difference by dividing the price difference by the magic number, 5150, and add that into the equation by adding it to the cheaper option.

I have predicted that Ablett will retain his average at approximately 125 PPG, while Swan will drop 5 points to 128, Cotchin gain 7 average to 118, and Beams 6 average to 122.

Ablett = 125 + 125 + 0 = 250
Swan = 133 + 128 + -5 = 258

Cotchin = 111 + 118 + 7 = 236
Beams = 116 + 122 + 6 = 244

That gives SwAblett a running total of 508, while CotchBeamsy a running total of 480.

Now you add price into the equation. SwAblett has a total of 1,330,600. CotchBeamsy has a total of 1,169,600. This means SwAblett costs $161,000 more than CotchBeamsy. 161000 / 5150 = 31.2621.

SwAblett = 508
CotchBeamsy = 480 + 31.2621
                   = 511.2621

Meaning CotchBeamsy shows a total of 3.2621 rating points over SwAblett. This may appear quite small seeing as their totals are both over 100, but seeing as each combination are scaled to be swung toward each other (through averages for SwAblett's benefit and pricing for CotchBeamsy's benefit) it is actually quite large.

This make any sense at all haha
Also, INB4 tl;dr

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xEIuXzzfWS0/T6pfOeskL8I/AAAAAAAAAlA/ih8B_i6nmps/s1600/21jumpstreet-floweryouscience.gif)

I'll probably end up looking like this when somebody destroys my argument :P

Quote from: Jukes on December 19, 2012, 10:14:20 PM
I reckon it's good to go with Beams and Cotchin over SwAblett. To find a quick way of valuation for players I like to add together three variables; previous season average (risk evaluation), 2013 predicted average (scoring evaluation) and the difference between these, improvement (cash value) then when comparing take into account the price difference by dividing the price difference by the magic number, 5150, and add that into the equation by adding it to the cheaper option.

I have predicted that Ablett will retain his average at approximately 125 PPG, while Swan will drop 5 points to 128, Cotchin gain 7 average to 118, and Beams 6 average to 122.

Ablett = 125 + 125 + 0 = 250
Swan = 133 + 128 + -5 = 258

Cotchin = 111 + 118 + 7 = 236
Beams = 116 + 122 + 6 = 244

That gives SwAblett a running total of 508, while CotchBeamsy a running total of 480.

Now you add price into the equation. SwAblett has a total of 1,330,600. CotchBeamsy has a total of 1,169,600. This means SwAblett costs $161,000 more than CotchBeamsy. 161000 / 5150 = 31.2621.

SwAblett = 508
CotchBeamsy = 480 + 31.2621
                   = 511.2621

Meaning CotchBeamsy shows a total of 3.2621 rating points over SwAblett. This may appear quite small seeing as their totals are both over 100, but seeing as each combination are scaled to be swung toward each other (through averages for SwAblett's benefit and pricing for CotchBeamsy's benefit) it is actually quite large.

This make any sense at all haha
Also, INB4 tl;dr

The way I look at is even going off your averages (I think your overestinating beamss)

You have ablett swan averaging around 255 together.

The beams cotchin combo 240 so that's 15 points lost there. Add the captiancy bonus and its 20+

So its how you use the 200-250k.

To afford the swablett combo I have one more rookie than you. So that means say if I pick vlaustin (just an example) you need to make up 20 points on that rookie picking a 400k back. Now vlaustin for example averages 65. You need to get a 85+ back for 400k to cover, possible yes.

But I would say that my extra rookie will go up in value by more than both cotchin and beams will combined thus making my team overall more valuable.

I also can't see cotchin beams coming within 15 (non captain) points to swablett.

That's how I look at it.

I think one point to take into consideration is like someone has mentioned and that is Pendles, used to be the 3rd highest midfielder or somewhere along those lines and will hopefully get back to his best will Ball back in the side to help out. Was once a very safe captain option. So looking at it that way, you could save 120k just by having midfielders 2 and 3 rather than 1 and 2....

just a different view on the whole debate :)

Quote from: azza707 on December 19, 2012, 11:05:12 PM
I think one point to take into consideration is like someone has mentioned and that is Pendles, used to be the 3rd highest midfielder or somewhere along those lines and will hopefully get back to his best will Ball back in the side to help out. Was once a very safe captain option. So looking at it that way, you could save 120k just by having midfielders 2 and 3 rather than 1 and 2....

just a different view on the whole debate :)

yeah i said that, i reckon it's a valid reason to only start one of GAJ or Swan ;)

Quote from: Toga on December 19, 2012, 11:20:15 PM

Quote from: azza707 on December 19, 2012, 11:05:12 PM
I think one point to take into consideration is like someone has mentioned and that is Pendles, used to be the 3rd highest midfielder or somewhere along those lines and will hopefully get back to his best will Ball back in the side to help out. Was once a very safe captain option. So looking at it that way, you could save 120k just by having midfielders 2 and 3 rather than 1 and 2....

just a different view on the whole debate :)

yeah i said that, i reckon it's a valid reason to only start one of GAJ or Swan ;)

You don't need both I agree. I'm going 1 2 and 3

Does there ever come a time where you have too many captaincy options come RD 1 therefore your actually just wasting cash.

My midfield atm is Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Stanton, Embley, rooks.

Swanny, GAJ and Pendles are all legitimate captain options as it is. I also reckon Stanton could be very handy with the VC loophole. I still expect him to be inconsistent and score the 70's/80's every 2-4 weeks. But the fact that when he does go big, you could capitilise even more by having his score doubled, make those 70's/80's a bit more bearable.

So should I be going with what I have at the moment, get rid of Swanny or GAJ for Cotchin, or even get rid of both of them for two of Cotch/Beams/Boyd etc.

I like what I have at the moment. Could be laughing if Stanton scores 175, get that doubled to 350 and not many people have him at all.

Would still like other peoples thoughts on what i should go with??

Starting with both plus Pendles and Cotch

That's a great point forgot the captain loophole. With it you can test Gary/swan out and if you don't like it go the other one.

My starting mids at the moment are Swan, Ablett, Cotchin, Pendlebury and Murphy and I'm not hit too hard in other areas of the field.  I haven't started with Goddard or Franklin though as I see those two as good upgrade targets.

Having both Swan and Gazza would cover you for most weeks.
Both locked.

Had both starting for the last few years and won't change now. Starting with them also means you don't need to worry about when to bring them in, and you don't need to find that extra cash when upgrading. You also have the players with comfortably the highest ceilings (apart from buddy). Murphy/Pendles, Cotchin and Embley then 3 rooks finish off my mids.

At the end of the day, no one will argue than Swan and Ablett will be in the top 8 scorers come year end and everyone will want then in the team as soon as possible.

Last year in DT neither Swan nor Ablett dropped more than $30k below starting price, so for the sake of team fiddling, hoping to have the cash or upgrades available at precisely the right time doesn't seem worth it

At the same time, there seem to be a large amount of mid rookies ready to exploit in 2013, allowing you to have the free cash for the Swablett combo

I am normally very logical and I do see Swan dipping a bit, but you just can not ignore his scores, his not someone you over analyse, its just a no-brainer

Start with both or start well back in the line that's how i see it. Try finding 600k+ to buy them in its not easy and you'll be burning 3 trades minimum to get them unless your prepared to wait until round 7+ when some of your rookies will be around 300k by then you'll be a truckload of points behind the leaders, pretty hard to catch the leaders when they have them, if your only playing for league wins you could get away with it but still to risky in my opinion. You'll burn 6 of your 30 trades to get both early and thats left you with 24 now while the leaders have more than you because they started with them.

Absolutely Grazz,i can see definite rookie defs to accomodate the cash spent on Swablett.Wanna be there from rd1.
By the way mate,the class of 2012 dt league is looking awesome,they should have a prize for top league.
A trip to the GF for all.Sounds good i recon.

Quote from: greenmoon on December 20, 2012, 09:33:38 PM
By the way mate,the class of 2012 dt league is looking awesome,they should have a prize for top league.
A trip to the GF for all.Sounds good i recon.

+1 All of us from FF PackHunters (4th overall) would of enjoyed that last year.  :o

Come and get us people we reign supreme haha.  :P

Swan and Ablett are price as high as they are because they are AWESOME!!! you don't get priced like that on an average of "just" 100. Both players have proven to smash it all season.

Only the best teams will have both........ and Pendles..

Lock and load both! Like ppl have said good luck trying to get both in at an early stage without wasting to much money and many trades.

In the top 100 total point scorers for defenders last year only 8 averaged more than 85.
Same with forwards 21 averaged more than 85 and we all know what prem mids can avg. for me I know I'm spending most money in getting good mids and good fwds!

So hard to get rid of one of Ablett, Cotchin, Pendles or Murphy.
Going to take 3 to get Swan in.

Yeah, think people are becoming more sided to having both from the start.  ;)