http://www.lions.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/5085/newsid/126846/default.aspx
For those that are interested and wavering whether to take the risk on Brownie this year. Should be a lock from round 1.
had him locked for a while ringo :P
His price makes him rather juicy
hes in mine without a second thought!
been having this discussion with some other mates who wont have him because they think hes injury prone, but these same dudes will have and do every year put Rioli in their team
Quote from: Hippo on December 05, 2011, 05:03:51 PM
hes in mine without a second thought!
been having this discussion with some other mates who wont have him because they think hes injury prone, but these same dudes will have and do every year put Rioli in their team
:D
I bought him twice last year and I can't bail on him now and watch him play 22 @ 100.
By reading that, u would think he would be a lock in abig percentage of teams. As long as he stops that kamikaze running back into packs stuff. Mind u, it goes to show how courageous he is.
Quote from: Hippo on December 05, 2011, 05:03:51 PM
hes in mine without a second thought!
been having this discussion with some other mates who wont have him because they think hes injury prone, but these same dudes will have and do every year put Rioli in their team
By injury prone you mean people hitting him in the face by accident. That's real injury prone if you ask me.
100% locked in my team, you'd be crazy not to have him...he's probably not essential, because there's value everywhere..but he will save you roughly 150k
No Mitch Clark = No injuries. I'm not bitter or anything.
McPharlin hasn't retired and he is sharpening his knee as we speak. Lyon is bringing in Dawson to be the enforcer in case that tactic doesn't work. Nobody messes with Zac.
games since 2001... 22,16,15,14,14,10,22,21,22,16,10 not a lock for me...
MY BACK IS SO ITCHY.
that is all.
Quote from: Marcz on December 05, 2011, 08:10:47 PM
games since 2001... 22,16,15,14,14,10,22,21,22,16,10 not a lock for me...
Yeah but his averages since '05 (not including last year are 114, 140, 111, 100, 99 and 97.
Let's be honest and say that each year you probably punt on 1 or 2 mid pricers to break out and score like a prem. Most of the time they don't and you end up trading them out, without them having gone up all that much in value.
Even if Brown doesn't play a full season, he'll more than likely score like a prem up until that point so you'll be able to sideways him to a prem.
So, what's to lose? You get the security of a high scoring mid pricer (which is what you want out of a mid pricer) and if he goes down, you sideways trade (trading is usually expected of mid pricers anyway) and if he plays a full season then you get a prem for next to nothing.
- From '05 he's averaged 110, so he should be priced roughly at 550k-580k. There's great value in Browny, even if he doesn't last I reckon.
Quote from: valkorum on December 05, 2011, 06:42:44 PM
Quote from: Hippo on December 05, 2011, 05:03:51 PM
hes in mine without a second thought!
been having this discussion with some other mates who wont have him because they think hes injury prone, but these same dudes will have and do every year put Rioli in their team
By injury prone you mean people hitting him in the face by accident. That's real injury prone if you ask me.
I think if someone plays 182 games out of a possible 242 there is a fair case to be made about him being injury prone. If you go by those stats, he misses on average 6.5 games per season.
Quote from: tferrier18 on December 05, 2011, 08:50:45 PM
Quote from: Marcz on December 05, 2011, 08:10:47 PM
games since 2001... 22,16,15,14,14,10,22,21,22,16,10 not a lock for me...
Yeah but his averages since '05 (not including last year are 114, 140, 111, 100, 99 and 97.
Let's be honest and say that each year you probably punt on 1 or 2 mid pricers to break out and score like a prem. Most of the time they don't and you end up trading them out, without them having gone up all that much in value.
Even if Brown doesn't play a full season, he'll more than likely score like a prem up until that point so you'll be able to sideways him to a prem.
So, what's to lose? You get the security of a high scoring mid pricer (which is what you want out of a mid pricer) and if he goes down, you sideways trade (trading is usually expected of mid pricers anyway) and if he plays a full season then you get a prem for next to nothing.
- From '05 he's averaged 110, so he should be priced roughly at 550k-580k. There's great value in Browny, even if he doesn't last I reckon.
u can shape it anyway u want, watch... 30 yo kpp, bad team, history of back, hip and groin injury, 182 of 242 games
Whilst the stats can not lie with injury neither can his super coach average. So basically you have a prem scoring forward priced at $390k who will allow a sideways trade when injury strikes so what have you to loose. You will have the benefit of a high scoring forward with an increasing price. If injury free may be a keeper. Expect Brisbane to also bounce back this season if injuries do not strike too severely.
Marcz is forever scarred from picking Higgins in '11. Brown is not the worst pick, but I wouldn't say he is a lock. Saying that, I think the changes to SC in terms of marks on the lead make him appealing again. You would pick him because of the purple patches he can go through.
I remember people were saying Pav was too old after scoring 30, 35, 87 in preseason. He still ended up being the 4th or 5th highest scoring forward in '11.
I guess with so many fallen premiums in '12 it makes finding a replacement through a sideways trade an easy task if it does fail.
People were almost threatening to kill others this year, and screaming "DON'T SIDEWAYS TRADE". But now it's okay to do since it's J. Brown.
??? actually i was just making a valid point
Quote from: meow meow on December 05, 2011, 11:20:18 PM
People were almost threatening to kill others this year, and screaming "DON'T SIDEWAYS TRADE". But now it's okay to do since it's J. Brown.
It's fine to sideways a player if they're at a prem price...because there's probably not gonna be many more options above brown (assuming he reaches prem scoring/price)
Quote from: tferrier18 on December 05, 2011, 11:24:55 PM
It's fine to sideways a player if they're at a prem price...because there's probably not gonna be many more options above brown (assuming he reaches prem scoring/price)
??? interesting strategy
You can pretty much rationalize any pick and if it comes off you end up looking like a genius. At the end of the day, its about getting the team balance right rather than trying to find faults in isolation.
Where you decide to take those risks will be an individual thing. There are not hard rules in picking a team, except don't pick Higgins.
Quote from: charliesheen on December 05, 2011, 11:40:53 PM
You can pretty much rationalize any pick and if it comes off you end up looking like a genius. At the end of the day, its about getting the team balance right rather than trying to find faults in isolation.
Where you decide to take those risks will be an individual thing. There are not hard rules in picking a team, except don't pick Higgins.
solid advice 8)
Quote from: Marcz on December 05, 2011, 11:29:10 PM
Quote from: tferrier18 on December 05, 2011, 11:24:55 PM
It's fine to sideways a player if they're at a prem price...because there's probably not gonna be many more options above brown (assuming he reaches prem scoring/price)
??? interesting strategy
I guess what I was trying to say was, if Brown's price increases to 520k or so and he then gets injured and you have to trade him out then there's nothing wrong with sidewaysing him to another fwd prem around 520k because there's barely any fwd prem options as it is.
yeah i get that but picking a guy that u think u will need to trade other than a rookie doesnt sit right with me... hence the games stat ;)
He must be selected. He is a premium at a low price. He did quite recently play 3 full seasons in a row. Last year he smashed his face in, it's not like he has dodgy hamstrings. Lock and load
If he goes prem price (increase of 130k or so) and gets injured then the benefits of picking him over an untested rookie are greater, a rookie you might pick up on may only increase 100k if they have a sintker, Coad, Dixon, Bewick,(yes all mine)
If he injures early then you can trade him for a rookie on the rise or a mid on fire.
If...as he will be scoring big points to get there, points wins you matches, points helps you win league, points..well you get the...umm point.
Of course its a matter of wait and see how he goes in the NAB and whether his leading with his head technique changes.
QuoteYeah but his averages since '05 (not including last year are 114, 140, 111, 100, 99 and 97.
looking at those stats they seem to be on the decline ;D I will probably pick him anyway lol!
J. Brown, mark on lead +5, go you good thing!
Be worth having him on your team, because he is good to watch. I don't really wanna watch Port Adelaide games again LOL!
im with marcz here.
I value each trade to be worth 150-200k.
If jono brown is not going to average 90 and be a keeper, he needs to increase in value by 150-200k otherwise it is a waste of a trade. If you think he is going to do that, then it is a good selection.
But even is he does become a keeper with an average of 90, he misses 6.5 games a season through injury. So the way i see it, You pick him to upgrade to a fallen premium because he is a good scorer, but unreliable. I think picking him early, upgrading him to stevie J when he drops in value is a great plan.
Nice discussion on this topic guys.
This is one strategy I had in mind by locking him in at low price, - Plays the early games and increases value - Pick the right time to trade him to Goodes who starts slowly and comes home with a wet sail SC wise. Obviusly a lot depends on form but you need to have a few optuions up your sleeve.
jono brown hasn't done a full pre season in a while. he plays sore and puts the team first, gotta love this player.
but SC terms?? he is in atm for me. brown with a full preseason is too enticing for me at 390k (long way to go yet :-X). it all comes down to structure - are you picking hayes? lake? will you have alot of forward rookies and need a bloke who is good for 22 games? atm i'looking for underpriced forwards/rucks and stacking the mids/backline. brown definately is an underpriced forward. if he gets trhough preseason without a hiccup he is most definately locked for mine.
Quote from: Ziplock on December 05, 2011, 04:44:13 PM
had him locked for a while ringo :P
i had him locked as soon as he went down injured
locking this early can be a dangerous thing gents, tread carefully...
i considered him when i heard he was fit. Way too early to lock anyone, especially considering every new/injured player who does pre season will be 'killing it'
Obviously nobody's actually locked in now...Every player in you're considering (not just rookies) will go through the 'see how they go during preseason and in NAB'
But at the moment he's as good as 'locked' can be for this time of year.
Really like Brownie! Will definitely be in my team if he has a good pre-season and doesn't injure himself.
Holzman and Ziplock claim they had him locked when he had facial fractures lying in hospital! Interesting!
30 year old in hospital with extremely serious injuries, LOCK HIM IN BOYS!
I think what your looking for is this, 'When Brown got injured i thought to myself, if he gets fully fit and back to his previous form he could be a decent selection for the price he will be, but i will need to wait until nab cup to see if he actually reterns to form or not...'
Instead of,
Arcitle come out about J Brown being fit on AFL.com, 'Omg i so had him picked like as soon as he did his injury, no i had him picked first'
pretty much, I mean, be a dick as always, but I'll explain my reasoning (and I'm sure Holz's)
Brown finished playing just 9 games last year, which is a 10% discount, although I'm not sure Monty has factored that into the fan planner. He also finished on his lowest average since 2002 partially due to these injuries, and probably a lack of match fitness when he first came back. A player who has averaged over 85 for the last 7 seasons, that we'll be picking up for a 60 average? Yeah I locked him in, as much as you can in round 17.
Of course, he was locked on the proviso he had decent pre-season...
now, I know you're just trying to compensate, but seriously, just give it a shot a being less of a dick :)
Quote from: Ziplock on December 09, 2011, 07:36:04 PM
pretty much, I mean, be a dick as always, but I'll explain my reasoning (and I'm sure Holz's)
Brown finished playing just 9 games last year, which is a 10% discount, although I'm not sure Monty has factored that into the fan planner. He also finished on his lowest average since 2002 partially due to these injuries, and probably a lack of match fitness when he first came back. A player who has averaged over 85 for the last 7 seasons, that we'll be picking up for a 60 average? Yeah I locked him in, as much as you can in round 17.
Of course, he was locked on the proviso he had decent pre-season...
now, I know you're just trying to compensate, but seriously, just give it a shot a being less of a dick :)
For the people who dont know much about DT here, that reason above is why you should pick J Brown. All i have to do is question you, and you actually give a detailed, very handy answer for all people discussing the topic, instead of, i locked him ages ago. Now the topic actually has some substance.
Quote from: DT Gun on December 09, 2011, 07:44:07 PM
Quote from: Ziplock on December 09, 2011, 07:36:04 PM
pretty much, I mean, be a dick as always, but I'll explain my reasoning (and I'm sure Holz's)
Brown finished playing just 9 games last year, which is a 10% discount, although I'm not sure Monty has factored that into the fan planner. He also finished on his lowest average since 2002 partially due to these injuries, and probably a lack of match fitness when he first came back. A player who has averaged over 85 for the last 7 seasons, that we'll be picking up for a 60 average? Yeah I locked him in, as much as you can in round 17.
Of course, he was locked on the proviso he had decent pre-season...
now, I know you're just trying to compensate, but seriously, just give it a shot a being less of a dick :)
For the people who dont know much about DT here, that reason above is why you should pick J Brown. All i have to do is question you, and you actually give a detailed, very handy answer for all people discussing the topic, instead of, i locked him ages ago. Now the topic actually has some substance.
You do realise your in the SC section right?
well, I presumed brown was already on most people's watch least for the above reason (although I realise I gave his DT averages, not SC averages... I sometimes get confused what board I'm on, although the point stands even stronger for SC).
The article pretty much covered why we should pick him, so I thought I needed to demonstrate little else rather than affirmation.
Quote from: DT Gun on December 09, 2011, 07:44:07 PM
All i have to do is question you, and you actually give a detailed, very handy answer for all people discussing the topic, instead of, i locked him ages ago.
Did we really have to anyway? Wasn't it implied that the reason he was locked in "ages ago" was obviously due to the fact that he was injured etc last season - but I guess "all you had to do is question us" to be that little bit more of a pain in the ass to get an essay written out which satisfied your arrogance.
i wasnt questioning you tferrier.. Love how you refer to Ziplock as we and us, when he clearly has better and more useful knowledge than you..
I questioned how he could pick someone injured and he answered with facts why, case closed. Stop tryin to brown nose
to be fair, I'm sure tferrier, holz etc. would have posted a very similar explanation to what I myself did, I just got in there first since you referred to me directly. I was speaking for the most part for the majority of people who have 'locked' brown at this stage. Most people wouldn't be on sites like this at this time of the year unless they were serious DTers and did their research anyway, so it makes sense that nobody bothered pointing out the obvious.
It's like when people have ablett in their team, they're rarely going to justify it- he's an dt gun pure and simple, underpriced due to injury cloud in the start of the season, playing in a team that can only get better.
completely different situation, same principle.
Only one is a Super Premium
And one isnt a premium who is injury prone and was just recently badly injured again.. haha
While Zip has explained most of my resoaning for locking in brown, the reason i said lock him in when he got his injury, was unlike a hammstring injury or an ACL etc.. browns injury will do little if anything to affect his game ( it may make him more cautious which is a good thing). The fact he is 30 is a valid point but i actually see his injury as a postive, it has allowed his body to recover and i would say has extended his career. I would argue that he may be less injury prone and require less rest than most players on the wrong side of 30. As the article said its his best preseason in 10 years and i believe it most players have niggling injuries, and alot require sugery in the off season, brown doesnt.
Just another quick postive is guys like redden, rockliff, burger, rich etc.. are all improving and i believe brisbane will improve and should get more delivery. With clark leaving it could also mean that brisbane may look more to brown again.
So unless he injurs himself preseason i will have him as the first guy selected in my team and for the reasons above will likely have him in my team the year after.
When it comes down to it i think some desicions are a no brainer, if brown has a full preseason and he is coming off the form the article said i dont know why anyone would not pick him at the price he is.
Quote from: DT Gun on December 10, 2011, 03:44:36 AM
Only one is a Super Premium
And one isnt a premium who is injury prone and was just recently badly injured again.. haha
im pretty sure most people would agree there is alot more upside in brown than ablett. Plus not 100% sure what you want from a forward but i guy who averaged around 100 for that many years he is a premium. At worst you could call him a fallen premium but you look how he started last year before getting innjured. If he can reclaim some of that form (not saying he will) he could be the top forward againt this year.
your only as good as your last year in my opinion. I dont care if he averaged 150 7 years ago
Quote from: DT Gun on December 10, 2011, 08:43:27 PM
your only as good as your last year in my opinion. I dont care if he averaged 150 7 years ago
it depends if injury was the reason or if it was a slump. His last uniinjured year he was a super premium, he is uninjured now. The important think is he is undervalued he doesnt have to average 95+ to be a good bye, anything 80+ is good and im confident he can do that.
must be a lot of BL supporters here :)
These things you just gotta go with gut instincts, no point rationalizing it LOL!
I picked Adcock in '11, and he didn't even have that great of a preseason. Now that I think about it, I don't know why I picked him, I'm just glad I didn't pick Everitt, LOL.
You saw that Adcock has meow's backing. These things subconsciously work their way into your mind.
Quote from: DT Gun on December 10, 2011, 08:43:27 PM
your only as good as your last year in my opinion. I dont care if he averaged 150 7 years ago
we're not talking 7 years ago, we're talking just 2 years ago he had a decent average, then hampered by injuries. It's a logic like this which would have had you discount players like cox this season, or really any potential break out player...
a premium for me is a guy who can back up year after year of 18+ games at an average of 90
Brown will do that in 2012.
a premium for me is a bloke who plays 18 games or more in a season at an average of 90+
Brown has done that what twice in his career?
He is a hit and miss forward that gets injured regularly
DT Gun using scare tactics so he can have J. Brown all to himself ;D
Im just saying he isnt a premium.
He has a little bit of value in him yes, but he is def not a premium.
Pick him knowing that he will probably miss a few games and be up and down as brisbane will get some floggings in 2012
Quote from: DT Gun on December 11, 2011, 10:04:56 PM
Im just saying he isnt a premium.
He has a little bit of value in him yes, but he is def not a premium.
Pick him knowing that he will probably miss a few games and be up and down as brisbane will get some floggings in 2012
who cares if he isnt a premium ( i disagree though) your not paying a premium price for him. Its not like he is 500k+ and your deciding if a guy like cloke is a better pick.
Considering his price, his fitness and his ability, he's pretty much a lock.
Even if he doesn't rack up 100 PPG, it's still worth it at that price.
Lock for me.
Started this thread when there was not much happening on the boards and it is raising a fair bit of discussion. (Most be one of my most successful topics).
Just by way of clarification DT Brownie only missed one game in seasons 2007 - 2009 playing 22 games, 21 games and 22 games. In 2010 he had injury with Osteo Pubitis and Abductor Muscle strains (spelling not my strong point) and only played 16 games and we know about last year. Actually the lay off last year has probably allowed him to get rid of all the niggles.
For the first time in 10 seasons Brownie is actually doing a full pre season training and has spoken glowingly of altitude training in Arizona. Brown has the capacity to again average 100 points per game and with his price of $390k makes him a real juicy prospect. With the breaking out of the Lions Midfield this year in Rockliff and Redden to assist Black and Rich he will be hopefully getting a better service as well to mark on leads which will score points as well as his average 3.2 per game.
Agree with Holz he is a definite premium forward whose price is discounted because of facial injuries last year.
in 06 he avg'd 140.5 sc.
irrelevant now days, just impressive :P
Chadwick averaged 120 in 2005. That's more impressive due to the position he was playing. Kicking goals is a chumps way of scoring.
Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS, North Melbourne, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs
Worth having just for the byes 8)
Don't think I'm going to have any forwards from these teams.
yeah lol, just saw that. Someone on DTT tried to come up with 'fantasy relevant forwards who share a bye with Brown'
needless to say, he kind of failed.
:P
Petrie?
not so relevant this year. It's unlikely (not impossible) that he'll hit proper premium status this year given his age, past scoring history etc. And an average of 87 or so doesn't really make him DT relevant without a discount :P
*edit* fml, thought I was on dt board again *facepalm*
at $390 locked into my team with the byes if he gets injured early i can picjk up the first decent bubble boy i missed ;D
He is a premium. At the start of last year he was the number 1 forward in sc until he got injured.
Brown should bw considered but not because he did altitude training. If i based it on that i would be picking the whole collingwood team. and this is the SC board not DT. A few of yous arnt taking into account if he gets injured in the opening 7 or 8 rounds what happens then you cant sidewards trade him to a premium you are stuck sidewards trading him to a mid pricer or wasting 2 trades putting him to a premium. But then again if you havent taken risks on other injury prone players like lake,porpus etc you could afford to have him in your side, if he stays fit he will go up in price no questions asked
hmmm. I do like to take a couple of risks, JB might just be one of them.........
Besides 2011, his lowest yearly average in the past 5 or 6 years was 97, and he is having a good pre season. Also, he would be more needed since melbourne nabbed clark.
Absolute superstar, seen him at the pub the other night looking fit and well. Heard he has been training like a madman since he has been back home(Warrnambool) for the christmas break.
Definately going in my team at that price.