Poll
Question:
Will you be selecting Lenny Hayes in 2012?
Option 1: Locked and loaded.
votes: 10
Option 2: He's on the shortlist.
votes: 20
Option 3: Jeez, it's a 50/50 call.
votes: 10
Option 4: Very unlikely for me.
votes: 3
Option 5: No, too risky.
votes: 7
I thought it'd be interesting if I brought the bargains and left-field choices to the table... ;)
First off is one of the biggest bargains for season 2012...Lenny Hayes.
Lenny Hayes
(http://images.triplem.com.au/2010/04/13/379245/afl-feature-lead-hard-yakka-lenny-hayes.jpg)
Statistics
2011 Games: 2
2011 Total Score: 173
2011 Average: 86.5
2011 High: 124
2011 Low: 49 (was subbed off in Q3 with ACL injury)
2011 Price: $503,500
2010 Games: 21
2010 Total Score: 2173
2010 Average: 103.5
2010 High: 167
2010 Low: 62
2010 Standard Deviation: 24.17
2010 Centuries: 11 out of 21 (17 out of 21 were over 90+)
2010 Starting Price: $629,800 (was also highest price)
2010 Lowest Price: $468,700 (Round 17)
Summary
Unfortunately Lenny Hayes ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) during the Round 2 game against Richmond earlier this year; which ruled him out for the entire 2011 season. Prior to his injury, he did register a score of 124 against Geelong in Round 1. Not much to take away from season 2011...
However, we all know that Lenny Hayes is a prolific ball winner...he's averaged more than 24 possessions a game since 2003! His kicking and handballing efficiency has slipped in recent years, but is still considerably high at 71% (2010).
Also for reference, in 2010, he ranked 2nd in the competition for disposals per minute, was 2nd in overall tackles, 6th in the number of clearances and 8th in centre clearances. Big ticks in the SuperCoach box.
The Crystal Ball
According to m0nty's Fanplanner he is priced at $459,500. This is however NOT taken into account the discount he will most likely receive.
Since he only played 2 games last season, he is eligible for a 20% discount, which will take his price to a handsome $367,600.
Decision
Lenny Hayes will 32 next season, he hasn't played for several months, and ACL's are tough to come back from.
But at that price, it's hard not to lock him in already.
IMO, watch his pre-season before committing to the champion midfielder.
Thoughts?
Have you already locked Lenny Hayes in for 2012? Or are his best days behind him thanks to the ACL injury?
On the shortlist for me, would like to see how he goes in the pre-season first
I think it is a 50/50 call. I'm questioning his age and coming back from an ACL. His price is tempting but if he falls and averages less than 80 we would have to waste one or two trades later in the season when we need to use trades carefully. If it works out he could be averaging more than 105. I'm not going to take a risk on him.
@ 367K he is locked for me. His body wouldn't have shrunk, and he wins points by winning contested footy. Has never been super quick so the knee won't be an issue. He'll have a full preseason into him, as he knee is almost good to go right now. I doubt Armitage will keep him out of his rightful position as number 1 inside mid at the Saints either, so he'll have opportunites galore.
Locked and Loaded, he's a pure champion. One of my favourite players in the AFL.
Quote from: roo boys! on October 05, 2011, 12:40:20 PM
Locked and Loaded, he's a pure champion. One of my favourite players in the AFL.
Too old :(
He may be old, but I still think he has it in him.
Quote from: ossie85 on October 05, 2011, 12:50:24 PM
Quote from: roo boys! on October 05, 2011, 12:40:20 PM
Locked and Loaded, he's a pure champion. One of my favourite players in the AFL.
Too old :(
People keep saying the same things about Dustin Fletcher, yet he still manages to impress each and every week. 8)
@ossie85. People said the same thing about Geelong at the start of the year. Geelong now hold the premiership cup for 2011.
Quote from: Torpedo10 on October 05, 2011, 02:38:51 PM
@ossie85. People said the same thing about Geelong at the start of the year. Geelong now hold the premiership cup for 2011.
:(
I love Lenny. One of my favourite players. But I just don't think he is going to get up easily to his 100+ best.
Whoever the Saints new coach might be could start pushing him out in favour of youngsters.
i will definitely be thinknig about him but am just not sure how well he will go after the injury and whether he will get back to his old best
I love Lenny, had him in my side in 2011 as a bit of a unique and when his knee went I felt the pain. I would take the risk on Lenny in 2012 if he has a proper pre-season except for the fact I rarely believe in having mid-tiered midfielders.
If he was a defender or forward it would be a no brainer but in the mids I like to have either Premiums (alas at 32 Lenny can no longer be compared to Ablett, Swan, Judd, Pendles etc) or rookies who traditionally provide good value in the mids.
I'll be watching him closely & either way hoping he comes back strongly.
If he gets the proper discount he is a lock if not i probably wont pick him up. I don't see stkilda pulling a gellong next year. Gellong is a champion team stkilda have just been a good team over the last few years. It all depends on the new coach, im tossing up between not starting with any stkilda players or loading up with hayes, montagna,goddard and voldt.
how can 6 people vote too risky? He's never had huge injuries except for this year .... locked and loaded for me
Quote from: Voldemort on October 27, 2011, 12:10:26 PM
how can 6 people vote too risky? He's never had huge injuries except for this year .... locked and loaded for me
30+ year old midfielders returning from a knee injury? Yeah, too risky for me!
quality player though ossie. Norm Smith Medalist aswell, he's not your avg 30 year old
I love Lenny, one of my favourites, but football doesn't stop unfortunately.
certainly doesnt, but he's still be good, maybe not as good as would have been, but still good for that price
Can I pose a slightly off-topic but related question.
If we wound back the clock three years to 2008, who would you choose first in your side (real side not SC side) Lenny Hayes or Simon Black? For me there is a waifer between them, if pushed perhaps a slight leaning to Black.
now it's Lenny I would think Cruiseon. Black is slowly, but noticeably, starting to age
Black for me Cruise, love that player.
Though it is a bit weird we're discussing players who have won Norm Smith medals against Collingwood. Should we throw in Jimmy Bartel as well?
haha yeah, Jimmy isnt in that catagorie- yet (gloden oldies)
i think lenny defently worth a punt ,hoping he has a good pre season be back to his best in no time, i hope :)
look at adam goodes this year. For great players, age means litte.
Quote from: Ziplock on October 27, 2011, 10:49:33 PM
look at adam goodes this year. For great players, age means litte.
Goodes didn't do his knee in 2010 though! Apples and oranges IMO....
same calibre players imo- a champion like lenny won't go out that easy.
agree with Ziplock
You guys obviously don't know how hard it is to come back from such a bad injury like an ACL and still perform at your best. Especially for someone the wrong side of 30.
Quote from: CrowsFan on October 28, 2011, 12:45:41 PM
You guys obviously don't know how hard it is to come back from such a bad injury like an ACL and still perform at your best. Especially for someone the wrong side of 30.
*cough* Michael Barlow *cough*
a) Michael Barlow is very much on the right side of 30
b) He had a fairly average year in 2011
he cam back from his ACL, first game, 25 (or 26) possessions, and he also had a massive WAFL with some 40+ possessions
+ he has still injured at the start of the year all the way through to the middle of the year
Lenny will be back to full fitness before the AFL year starts
As ossie said Barlow was much younger, only 23 so easier to recover. Also he didn't do his ACL he broke his leg which is completely different.
Barlow is an old man. Time to move on.
Oscar Judd is the way forwards.
Quote from: charliesheen on October 28, 2011, 03:54:20 PM
Barlow is an old man. Time to move on.
Oscar Judd is the way forwards.
It's true he could be good pick-up under the father/son rule at the Weagles. Remind who else his father played for?
Quote from: CrowsFan on October 28, 2011, 03:47:48 PM
As ossie said Barlow was much younger, only 23 so easier to recover. Also he didn't do his ACL he broke his leg which is completely different.
he broken is tibia, which takes equally as long as an ACL to recover from, and 30 is isnt very old in the real world. Many people all around the world recover from injuries without professional help that Hayes is getting and they are well over 30, so the age isnt an excuse for injury.
Quote from: Voldemort on October 28, 2011, 04:06:45 PM
Quote from: CrowsFan on October 28, 2011, 03:47:48 PM
As ossie said Barlow was much younger, only 23 so easier to recover. Also he didn't do his ACL he broke his leg which is completely different.
he broken is tibia, which takes equally as long as an ACL to recover from, and 30 is isnt very old in the real world. Many people all around the world recover from injuries without professional help that Hayes is getting and they are well over 30, so the age isnt an excuse for injury.
You just don't get it. As you get older it gets harder and takes longer to recover and return to previous form. This is the type of stuff I do at uni. No sportsmen who suffers are massive injury like an ACL tear ever fully gets back to previous standards. He not only has the physical battle but also a psychological one to face too
but this is lenny flowering hayes.
Must agree with C4 here.
The ACL is one of the most difficult injuries to come back from, especially for a footballer.
Trying to compare Michael Barlow to Lenny Hayes is ludicrous.
First of all, Barlow is 23 and was 22 when he broke his leg. It was also a fairly clean break.
Lenny Hayes is 31, and will be 32 in January. He was 31 when he did his ACL.
Just because Lenny is younger than other people that do their ACL, sure maybe they come back from it just fine, but they're not competing against elite sportsmen in a high contact sport now are they?
I'm going to pass on Lenny this year, I'd love to see him come back and be as good as he was previously though.
Quote from: CrowsFan on October 30, 2011, 02:27:24 PM
Quote from: Sid on October 30, 2011, 09:58:09 AM
Must agree with C4 here.
Agree with C4 or CF?
With me. :P
To paraphrase Brian Fantana...
(http://www.testriffic.com/resultfiles/7769brian-fantana.jpg)
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, I'm right every time."
I think these type of injuries affect players that rely on their athletic gifts, and also tailing towards end of their careers. Barlow relies more on getting in right positions, running hard, and good game sense.
Personally, I think it will be more a confidence thing for him. I get a feeling as his confidence builds, and getting continuous games, his season will get better.
Reckon could potentially do a Rockliff.
Average ~100 between rounds 1-10, then average ~110-120 between rounds 10-23
You could argue, he might be a better pick later in the season. The problem is, if he gets off to a flyer, you lose value in the pick. On the other hand, if he doesn't get off to a flyer averaging 110+, you lose out.
Quote from: charliesheen on October 30, 2011, 02:38:17 PM
You could argue, he might be a better pick later in the season. The problem is, if he gets off to a flyer, you lose value in the pick. On the other hand, if he doesn't get off to a flyer averaging 110+, you lose out.
That is the beauty about this game, it's all about taking risks.
wait and see how he goes in pre season. he might be too good to refuse if under 400k?? i'm personally not planning on starting him. i'd probably rather take a punt on a dpp player like zaharakis/dangerfield if i want to start a mid around the 400k price range. if dangerfield is predominately on the ball next season he could get close to a 100 average.
but i'm with the view of hoping lenny comes back to is best, can't help but respect the way he goes about it. one tough mother flower
Quote from: c4v3m4n on October 30, 2011, 02:39:42 PM
That is the beauty about this game, it's all about taking risks.
I would say its more about
balancing risk vs rewards. You should take risks where you believe there is value.
Personally I believe there is better value to be had in the forward line.
Saying that, I think 2012 offers a bit better contingency options in the mids, for example J.Ziebel, D.Rich, & Barlow, are all good fallbacks for Hayes.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/lenny-hayes-not-commiting-to-round-1-return/story-e6frf9jf-1226183929780
Hmm... :-\
That doesn't inspire confidence at all.
Quote from: c4v3m4n on November 03, 2011, 12:04:31 AM
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/lenny-hayes-not-commiting-to-round-1-return/story-e6frf9jf-1226183929780
Hmm... :-\
That doesn't inspire confidence at all.
Hmm ... +1 ... but think the key might be if he starts running pre-Christmas ... :-\
Quote from: c4v3m4n on November 03, 2011, 12:04:31 AM
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/lenny-hayes-not-commiting-to-round-1-return/story-e6frf9jf-1226183929780
Hmm... :-\
That doesn't inspire confidence at all.
I'd rather Barlow or Mundy now ...
Lol Voldy, quickly jumped off!
Quote from: ossie85 on November 03, 2011, 07:25:30 PM
Lol Voldy, quickly jumped off!
yeah, well, he said it himself ;D ;D ;D
Quote from: Voldemort on November 04, 2011, 09:27:45 AM
Quote from: CrowsFan on November 04, 2011, 01:36:36 AM
Quote from: Voldemort on November 03, 2011, 08:03:28 PM
Quote from: ossie85 on November 03, 2011, 07:25:30 PM
Lol Voldy, quickly jumped off!
yeah, well, he said it himself ;D ;D ;D
Looks like I win the argument then :P
good on you CF want a medal? ;) 8)
He's got a few already:
(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/KOCUPSC.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/HIGHSCORESC.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/MEDALAEL.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/RHS.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/RHS.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/RUASMPremierSC.png)
Quote from: ossie85 on November 04, 2011, 09:35:34 AM
Quote from: Voldemort on November 04, 2011, 09:27:45 AM
Quote from: CrowsFan on November 04, 2011, 01:36:36 AM
Quote from: Voldemort on November 03, 2011, 08:03:28 PM
Quote from: ossie85 on November 03, 2011, 07:25:30 PM
Lol Voldy, quickly jumped off!
yeah, well, he said it himself ;D ;D ;D
Looks like I win the argument then :P
good on you CF want a medal? ;) 8)
He's got a few already:
(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/KOCUPSC.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/HIGHSCORESC.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/MEDALAEL.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/RHS.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/RHS.png)(http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y116/OssieAntelope/RUASMPremierSC.png)
such as?
Such as all the ones ossie just showed you ;)
Quote from: c4v3m4n on November 03, 2011, 12:04:31 AM
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/lenny-hayes-not-commiting-to-round-1-return/story-e6frf9jf-1226183929780
Hmm... :-\
That doesn't inspire confidence at all.
Update: apparently he's already off the bike??
from TS:
From StkildaThunda
Lenny Hayes is running like a man possessed. Back upto full pace and at the club everyday doing his pre-preseason training. Looks certain to play preseaon and Round 1.
not sure what to make of that ... can't find anything on Saints website ... :-\